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WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?

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alum74

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #255 on: May 24, 2020, 08:18:49 PM »
https://apple.news/AEttBi3DmQsqUbZsIw_LNag

What are the odds that Americans en masse would follow the directives noted in the article and also wear the 2 masks given to them by the government?

Here's a couple other notable coronavirus mitigation measures that were carried out in Japan.   

Localized contact tracing initiative

“An early grassroots response to rising infections was crucial. While the central government has been criticized for its slow policy steps, experts praise the role of Japan’s contact tracers, which swung into action after the first infections were found in January. The fast response was enabled by one of Japan’s inbuilt advantages -- its public health centers, which in 2018 employed more than half of 50,000 public health nurses who are experienced in infection tracing. In normal times, these nurses would be tracking down more common infections such as influenza and tuberculosis.”

“'It’s very analog -- it’s not an app-based system like Singapore,' said Kazuto Suzuki, a professor of public policy at Hokkaido University who has written about Japan’s response. 'But nevertheless, it has been very useful.'”

“While countries such as the U.S. and the U.K. are just beginning to hire and train contact tracers as they attempt to reopen their economies, Japan has been tracking the movement of the disease since the first handful of cases were found. These local experts focused on tackling so-called clusters, or groups of infections from a single location such as clubs or hospitals, to contain cases before they got out of control.”

Simple and consistent public health message:

“’Although political leadership was criticized as lacking, that allowed doctors and medical experts to come to the fore -- typically seen as a best practice in managing public health emergencies. “You could say that Japan has had an expert-led approach, unlike other countries,’ Tanaka said.”

“Experts are also credited with creating an easy-to-understand message of avoiding what are called the “Three C’s” -- closed spaces, crowded spaces and close-contact settings -- rather than keeping away from others entirely.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-22/did-japan-just-beat-the-virus-without-lockdowns-or-mass-testing






« Last Edit: May 24, 2020, 08:21:14 PM by alum74 »

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Custard

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #256 on: May 24, 2020, 10:29:34 PM »
Japan enacted almost the same exact measures on the same timeline the US did. Seems like most Americans have followed the directives pretty well.

I got my masks from a lady on the other side of the lake that makes them and donates them. They wouldn’t accept any money for them (And they don’t need the money) but I gave them some as a donation to get more material and pay it forward. So I actually wish I had gotten masks in the mail, and I’ve talked to others that have had a hard time acquiring masks as well.

If I had to wager I’d say there’s a major discrepancy between the way testing is performed and reported, the threshold and definition of what qualifies as a COVID death, and the much, much healthier Japanese elderly population as compared to that of the United States.
« Last Edit: May 24, 2020, 10:34:53 PM by Custard »
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ThePAMan

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #257 on: May 25, 2020, 12:58:06 AM »
Japan enacted almost the same exact measures on the same timeline the US did. Seems like most Americans have followed the directives pretty well.

I got my masks from a lady on the other side of the lake that makes them and donates them. They wouldn’t accept any money for them (And they don’t need the money) but I gave them some as a donation to get more material and pay it forward. So I actually wish I had gotten masks in the mail, and I’ve talked to others that have had a hard time acquiring masks as well.

If I had to wager I’d say there’s a major discrepancy between the way testing is performed and reported, the threshold and definition of what qualifies as a COVID death, and the much, much healthier Japanese elderly population as compared to that of the United States.

C'mon..Japanese society is far different from what we have here. The Japanese aren't hanging out at the Ozarks or The Brat Stop sans masks like we have seen here.

Personally I would not normally give a fuck if Yahoo Billy Bob in MI Militia Territory decides to go maskless. Let Darwin sort out the assholes. The problem is when I wear a mask and Billy Bob decides he is making a statement and gets in my face, since odds are Billy Bob probably does not even bother to wash his hands when he pisses. Then there are the bums taking the Blue Line without a mask asking  me for money. I am just going to start coughing at those fuckers when they come.by me from now on and write the guys running the Blue Line for not taking proper cleaning precautions and kicking the maskless assholes off the train. (Yes. I've written them and not only gotten email responses, but multiple apology calls from the people in charge of cleaning the trains.)

At this point I think the only numbers which may make sense to follow are the excess death numbers.  Seems like everyone is fudging the numbers. If the numbers were to be trusted, the percentage of people being tested testing positive would be a number to follow. I am just unsure how accurate any of those number are at this point.
« Last Edit: May 25, 2020, 01:00:44 AM by ThePAMan »
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Custard

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #258 on: May 25, 2020, 10:56:27 AM »
The Japanese are certainly different than Americans, but they still live in crowded cities and didn’t have as strict of a lockdown as most of the US did.

Tokyo area has more people than the entire state of Illinois and they’re getting single digit new cases per day and Chicago and NYC are getting completely slammed with new cases. But Chicago and NYC are doing a ton of testing so they’re finding a lot of cases that were asymptomatic and/or recovered at home whereas Japan is not doing much testing at all.

And yes there has to be some fudging of the numbers going on.
« Last Edit: May 25, 2020, 11:02:03 AM by Custard »
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ThePAMan

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #259 on: May 25, 2020, 12:41:43 PM »
The Japanese are certainly different than Americans, but they still live in crowded cities and didn’t have as strict of a lockdown as most of the US did.

Tokyo area has more people than the entire state of Illinois and they’re getting single digit new cases per day and Chicago and NYC are getting completely slammed with new cases. But Chicago and NYC are doing a ton of testing so they’re finding a lot of cases that were asymptomatic and/or recovered at home whereas Japan is not doing much testing at all.

And yes there has to be some fudging of the numbers going on.

Yeah, but you ignore that wearing masks appears to have been somewhat common before all this and all the other factors mentioned in the article. They definitely are not as individualistic and they pixelate their porn. We.would not stand for pixelated porn here, nor.should we.
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Custard

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #260 on: May 25, 2020, 01:11:36 PM »
I don’t think “somewhat common” mask wearing is the primary factor driving this enormous disparity. Maybe God is punishing us for not pixelating our porn. And why does the pixelator guy get to have all the fun?
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illiniray

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #261 on: May 25, 2020, 01:51:40 PM »
 "And, you know, when you say “per capita,” there’s many per capitas. It’s, like, per capita relative to what? But you can look at just about any category, and we’re really at the top, meaning positive on a per capita basis, too. They’ve done a great job." ~~ the stable genius
« Last Edit: May 25, 2020, 03:20:47 PM by illiniray »
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ThePAMan

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #262 on: May 25, 2020, 01:54:43 PM »
I don’t think “somewhat common” mask wearing is the primary factor driving this enormous disparity. Maybe God is punishing us for not pixelating our porn. And why does the pixelator guy get to have all the fun?

That and the other factors listed that are not common with US cultural norms.

Well, we are about to find out how well the masks work given what occurred at the Great Clips in Missouri, I believe, right? If everyone was wearing a mask as the story says, and no one got/gets the Chinese Commie Party COVID, then that gives credence to the directives to wear masks.
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Custard

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #263 on: May 25, 2020, 02:29:57 PM »
Idk I haven’t seen anyone doing any hand shaking or hugging and most are taking social distancing pretty seriously. It hasrelaxed a bit in the last week or two, I will say. Those aren’t our cultural norms but they were passed down from the government and quickly adopted by most people.

There just can’t be that much of a discrepancy simply based on those things. The disease tends to cause the damage in people who are obese, smoke or have smoked, diabetic, heart disease, cancer, pretty much all the things that are truly dangerous pandemics caused by the American lifestyle.
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alum74

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #264 on: May 25, 2020, 02:49:17 PM »
Japan enacted almost the same exact measures on the same timeline the US did. Seems like most Americans have followed the directives pretty well.

I got my masks from a lady on the other side of the lake that makes them and donates them. They wouldn’t accept any money for them (And they don’t need the money) but I gave them some as a donation to get more material and pay it forward. So I actually wish I had gotten masks in the mail, and I’ve talked to others that have had a hard time acquiring masks as well.

If I had to wager I’d say there’s a major discrepancy between the way testing is performed and reported, the threshold and definition of what qualifies as a COVID death, and the much, much healthier Japanese elderly population as compared to that of the United States.

Pure bunk.  Both articles show that Japan did things differently from the very beginning. 

While Japan’s central government was slow to act initially, public health officials “swung into action after the first infections were found in January.”  They created a clear and consistent educational message that was not undermined by their national political leaders and a good chunk of the media like in the U.S.   Japan’s leaders also didn’t waste valuable time playing the blame game. 

A huge difference in mitigation was that Japan implemented a broad contact tracing program at the start of its flatten-the-curve efforts.  This fast response was accomplished through public health centers that employ public health nurses experienced in infection tracing.  The contact tracing focused on tackling so-called clusters, or groups of infections from a single location to contain cases before they got out of control.  South Korea set up a similar program early on.  Due to lack of resources, local public health authorities in the U.S. are just beginning to hire and train contact tracers as state economies reopen.

The Japanese countermeasures also focused less on social distancing or “keeping away from others entirely.”  Unlike most of the U.S., restaurants and hairdressers were allowed to stay open, but under limited hours.  Japan’s health authorities emphasized avoiding the “three Cs”: confined and crowded spaces and close human contact.  This included stadiums, theatres, amusement parks, schools, office buildings, universities and other large gatherings. 

Japan has tested just 0.2% of its population -- one of the lowest rates among developed countries.

Finally, Japan has a cultural advantage over the U.S.   Wearing masks and high personal hygiene have been common practices for years.  I would agree that low obesity rates in Japan may have helped battle the virus, along with expertise in treating pneumonia and universal healthcare. 

One last thing.  Japan’s public health experts are not celebrating or declaring victory over the virus, with the end of the national state of emergency about to end.  They are worried that a more serious second wave with materialize in the fall. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-22/did-japan-just-beat-the-virus-without-lockdowns-or-mass-testing

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Somewhere in Mn

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #265 on: May 25, 2020, 03:09:21 PM »
Looks like I've racked up some bad karma, so we'll see if I can add to it ......
I was going to add the same thing about co-morbidities.
The incidence of obesity, diabetes and asthma among other issues should be considered. We have nearly 10 times the obesity of Japan. Plus, add in the acceptance of wearing masks in Japan for pollution and hay fever.
Assuming nobody is going to haul off and sneeze in my face or I'm not standing in front of a choir it's my impression that masks aren't of much benefit if social distancing. Masks also may not be of much benefit when being outdoors and in close proximity to people for only a minute or so.
Alum74 mentioned the 3 c's and It's my impression that taking those into account are important. Avoid closed spaces, close contact and close proximity. If I see someone without a mask, I steer clear.
I think we know the risk factors are age, co-morbidities and long term care environments. We should have been addressing those better, instead of saying County X has 200 coronavirus deaths and omitting that 160 of those are in 3-4 long term care environments or that 190-195 have co-morbidities.

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Custard

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #266 on: May 25, 2020, 03:23:54 PM »
Yes I read all that and no I don’t believe that there was this magical group of rogue angel nurses isolating clusters of positive cases and then somehow mitigating their ability to spread the virus to others when the government was still stepping all over its collective dick. It does not add up.

When all these studies and tests keep showing that there were and have been consistently way more asymptomatic cases and recoveries at home than we ever suspected, how are they contact tracing those people who never sought treatment or got sick in the first place?

The ones who are asymptomatic probably do the most harm simply because they’re like “hey I’m not sick I’m good to be out.” Yet you literally cannot trace those people until they have an antibody test well after they’ve been in contact with and likely passed it on to god knows how many other people that cannot be traced because it’s not like that person is going to remember weeks later who all they came in contact with at the market or the grocery or in the bathroom stalls at work at essential business.

Japan did not have an app or digital contact tracing. And I cannot find any other English language publications of any sort that explain how these nurses managed to pull off this miracle.

And actually the Japanese have been discussing “living with the virus” going forward using common sense measures as the testing continues to show a mortality rate that keeps sliding closer and closer to a bad seasonal flu amongst relatively healthy people.

And yes of course it’s been politicized in a lot of western countries because Communism.
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alum74

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #267 on: May 25, 2020, 05:11:01 PM »
Here are excerpts from three articles that describe the coronavirus contact tracing efforts in Japan:

A region in Japan launched its own coronavirus fight. It’s now called a ‘model’ in local action (March 22, 2020)
Under the Health Ministry’s approach at the time, not everyone who had been in close contact with an infected person was being tested. Many such people were simply told to stay home and monitor their health.   The hospital in Yuasa had been closed to outpatients after the tests, but Nisaka and his health department knew they needed it working again, and fast. Everyone who might have been infected needed to be tested.  Officials started to track down everyone who could have been in contact with the doctors — nurses, part-time staff, patients, family members, even workers at small businesses supplying goods to the hospital.   “It was hard,” the health department chief, Nojiri, said. “The first challenge was to grasp the entire picture, which took time. Just to see how many people to target — it is not as though there were directories [of how to find them].”   Staff at public health centers interviewed people to find out who could have been in contact with the virus. It took three days to trace everyone and up to 11 more days to get specimens for testing, she said. The list had swelled to roughly 470 people, an enormous number at a time when Japan was doing only a few hundred tests a day, outside the Diamond Princess cruise ship under quarantine in Yokohama.  Medical staff in Wakayama and Osaka worked around the clock to analyze test results. By Feb. 25, everyone had been tested, and 10 more coronavirus patients were found. 
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/japan-coronavirus-wakayama/2020/03/22/02da83bc-65f5-11ea-8a8e-5c5336b32760_story.html

This may be the tip of the iceberg”: Why Japan’s coronavirus crisis may be just beginning (March 28, 2020)
Japan began testing individuals with coronavirus symptoms — and not only those with a history of travel to Hubei province — at the discretion of local governments around February 12. The government then created a specialized team of public health and medical experts to identify and isolate infection clusters.   Whenever a hospital confirms a new case, the government dispatches teams of medical and data experts to cooperate with local governments to locate and test anyone who has been in contact with the infected individual. Oftentimes as a result, the corresponding local facilities are closed down, such as a senior care facility in Aichi prefecture that was associated with an infection cluster.
https://www.vox.com/covid-19-coronavirus-explainers/2020/3/28/21196382/japan-coronavirus-cases-covid-19-deaths-quarantine

Japan May Have Beaten Coronavirus Without Lockdowns or Mass Testing. But How? (May 25, 2020)
An early grassroots response to rising infections was crucial. While the central government has been criticized for its slow policy steps, experts praise the role of Japan’s contact tracers, which swung into action after the first infections were found in January. The fast response was enabled by one of Japan’s inbuilt advantages — its public health centers, which in 2018 employed more than half of 50,000 public health nurses who are experienced in infection tracing. In normal times, these nurses would be tracking down more common infections such as influenza and tuberculosis.   “It’s very analog — it’s not an app-based system like Singapore,” said Kazuto Suzuki, a professor of public policy at Hokkaido University who has written about Japan’s response. “But nevertheless, it has been very useful.”   “Many people say we don’t have a Centers for Disease Control in Japan,” said Yoko Tsukamoto, a professor of infection control at the Health Sciences University of Hokkaido, citing a frequently held complaint about Japan’s infection management. “But the public health center is a kind of local CDC.”
https://time.com/5842139/japan-beat-coronavirus-testing-lockdowns/
« Last Edit: May 25, 2020, 05:28:39 PM by alum74 »

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Custard

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #268 on: May 25, 2020, 05:37:45 PM »
I’ve read all those in part of my googling I mentioned earlier. As I said I don’t doubt that these measures helped but I’m trying to connect the dots between health care professionals and facilities being overwhelmed by patients as we were told with this army of nurses turning into de facto private investigators at the local government level when the national government was completely out of sync on how to handle these things. I’m not saying it didn’t help I just think there are some pieces missing here and there are lots of people grasping at straws to figure it out.
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alum74

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #269 on: June 03, 2020, 05:36:39 PM »
Here's pretty good data visualization/stats about state coronavirus re-openings, from Pro Publica:

https://projects.propublica.org/reopening-america/