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WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?

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illinicalvin

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #240 on: May 23, 2020, 12:16:23 AM »
There are other costs in starting up and maintaining a small business, but commercial lenders demanding rent in full from restaurants etc., thinking that they're going to waltz into court and get an easy joint action victory in 2 months I think are sorely mistaken, and lenders who do that are likely going to find themselves out of business because that's the antithesis of how good commercial real estate entities operate.

Whenever this thing ends, it's going to be a tenants' market on the commercial RE side. Every white collar employer in America is conducting an ongoing r&d project about the feasibility of having a paperless or remote office and maintaining efficiency. If your small business needs a physical footprint, it'll likely be as cheap as its ever been in the next few years. And *if* we have restaurants that go away because of lost revenue, I suspect you'll see a spate of food service openings to fill the demand that is already there. As long as the credit markets remain open (contra 08) it's not like we're going to lose restaurants and bars or other businesses.
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murphstahoe

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #241 on: May 23, 2020, 12:31:03 AM »
Quote from: illinicalvin on May 23, 2020, 12:16:23 AM
There are other costs in starting up and maintaining a small business, but commercial lenders demanding rent in full from restaurants etc., thinking that they're going to waltz into court and get an easy joint action victory in 2 months I think are sorely mistaken, and lenders who do that are likely going to find themselves out of business because that's the antithesis of how good commercial real estate entities operate.

Whenever this thing ends, it's going to be a tenants' market on the commercial RE side. Every white collar employer in America is conducting an ongoing r&d project about the feasibility of having a paperless or remote office and maintaining efficiency. If your small business needs a physical footprint, it'll likely be as cheap as its ever been in the next few years. And *if* we have restaurants that go away because of lost revenue, I suspect you'll see a spate of food service openings to fill the demand that is already there. As long as the credit markets remain open (contra 08) it's not like we're going to lose restaurants and bars or other businesses.

It would not shock me in the least to see some of these small-ish operations resurrected in situ. There is a cherished small chain in the Bay Area called Speciality's, a bakery/sandwich place. They just shuttered, boom.

By doing so, payroll is gone, whatever goes on with various leases is done, etc.. They've basically cancelled most ongoing operations costs.

If this goes on a couple months, someone buys the trademark, the recipes, the equipment that's probably still sitting in the exact same place, negotiates a lease with the landlord, and boom, back in business. For some of these, it could easily be some person sitting in some sort of VP role that negotiates the buyout deal and becomes the new CEO. States and municipalities will be falling all over themselves to expedite permitting. There will be a lot of people taking bruises in the transition, but it will be fine as long as we can take care of Covid.
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ThePAMan

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #242 on: May 23, 2020, 01:22:24 AM »
Quote from: murphstahoe on May 22, 2020, 02:18:07 PM
Quote from: ILLove1997 on May 22, 2020, 12:44:44 PM

I am not referring to rich people when I say this is the biggest economic blunder ever...

I am referring to the millions of small businesses that will shut down due to the excessive lockdown measures enacted by our clown show local government leaders

Big box stores are doing GREAT!  All their competition is not allowed to operate right now

Chain restaurants are doing GREAT!  As nearly all their competition has or will be wiped out

Small businesses are the growth engine of the US economy they are nearly the entire creator of jobs in the economy
https://sbecouncil.org/about-us/facts-and-data/

do you have any fucking clue how hard it is to operate and start a small business?  I'm sure you have some idea as a vacation rental owner..

These jobs are NOT coming back any time soon!

Money is an exchange for goods and services, if we don't make goods, or provide services the money is worthless!

as for the X number of more cases murph, we have laid off 1.4 MILLION healthcare workers in April!!!!!  The initial 14 days to flatten the curve was fine, what was not fine was the insanity of never ending lock down that prevailed after that
https://www.npr.org/2020/05/08/852435761/as-hospitals-lose-revenue-thousands-of-health-care-workers-face-furloughs-layoff

almost all the mobile hospitals we set up went unused
https://www.npr.org/2020/05/07/851712311/u-s-field-hospitals-stand-down-most-without-treating-any-covid-19-patients

its like a comedy of errors at this point and its infuriating

Oh, here ya go murph, I wouldn't want you to get in trouble

https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/slideshow/What-am-I-allowed-to-do-outside-this-Memorial-Day-202618.php

If you own a small business, you are better off than at minimum 50% of the country. And if you were able to put yourself in that position, you'll do fine unless your brain shut down completely. The opportunity post pandemic will be massive. The people with the moxie to start a small business before will have that same moxie but with a wider set of opportunity.

Declare bankruptcy and move on, with the backing of our society if we aren't complete morons. Who loses? Landlords. Screw em. We should value labor over capital. If small businesses are needing to declare bankruptcy it's because the landlords expected them to pay rent as usual while they were in metaphorical breach. We have a bill in the CA Senate requiring retail landlords to give rent reductions because the tenants are not getting the value that the landlord promised - if the restaurant can only seat 50% as many people because of distancing regulations, then the tenant is not getting the same thing the landlord offered when the lease was signed.

I think what this comes down to is that you're a money pusher without any inherent skillset, you don't design or produce anything of real value, do any real additive work for society. The pandemic threatens the model where you can make money from thin air, and that makes you angry.

2 moxie references in one post! Where is Vette?
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Somewhere in Mn

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #243 on: May 23, 2020, 07:24:55 AM »
Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp announced late Thursday that his state had fewer than 1,000 residents hospitalized for coronavirus. The number represents a 38% decline in hospitalizations since May 1, when the state began to reopen.
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fucking

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #244 on: May 23, 2020, 09:16:16 AM »
That's pretty cool. Especially if you're not one of yesterday's 819 new cases or 33 new deaths.
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Custard

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #245 on: May 23, 2020, 11:21:01 AM »
Let’s keep moving the goalposts
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Somewhere in Mn

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #246 on: May 23, 2020, 12:07:31 PM »
Doctors in Northern California say they have seen more deaths from suicide than they’ve seen from the coronavirus during the pandemic.

“The numbers are unprecedented,” Dr. Michael deBoisblanc of John Muir Medical Center in Walnut Creek, California, told ABC 7 News about the increase of deaths by suicide, adding that he’s seen a “year’s worth of suicides” in the last four weeks alone.

Washington Examiner May 21
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ridingthegrange

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #247 on: May 23, 2020, 12:35:52 PM »
Suicides in Colorado are down 40% for March and April according to today's Denver Post.  Also, overall deaths are up by 20% in same time frame.  Too bad we don't have CDC doing all the unbiased statistics that would normally be expected to guide us thru.
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alum74

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #248 on: May 23, 2020, 01:47:21 PM »
Quote from: Mn on May 23, 2020, 07:24:55 AM
Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp announced late Thursday that his state had fewer than 1,000 residents hospitalized for coronavirus. The number represents a 38% decline in hospitalizations since May 1, when the state began to reopen.

It’s important for the Governor not to oversell the trend.  Things can change with this virus, especially since states are "reopening" without adequate mitigation programs in place (i.e., testing, tracing and isolation measures).   

New COVID-19 hospitalizations in Georgia back on the rise (May 23, 2020)
Data from the last month show a noticeable rise in the last week or so.

"One of the coronavirus statistics Gov. Brian Kemp has highlighted on numerous occasions as a sign things are improving in Georgia is active hospitalizations."

"He tweeted on Tuesday when the number dipped below 1,000 to 986, a 34% drop since May 1. Again on Friday, his office sent out a release that the number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Georgia was at a new low, 887 - a 40% drop since the beginning of the month."

"That overall falling trend is now, however, at odds with the rate of new patients being hospitalized."

https://www.11alive.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/georgia-coronavirus-hospitalizations-back-on-rise/85-bca8724b-b236-4d71-a0ea-db949df5eb5a
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Somewhere in Mn

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #249 on: May 23, 2020, 03:31:38 PM »
Quote from: alum74 on May 23, 2020, 01:47:21 PM
Quote from: Mn on May 23, 2020, 07:24:55 AM
Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp announced late Thursday that his state had fewer than 1,000 residents hospitalized for coronavirus. The number represents a 38% decline in hospitalizations since May 1, when the state began to reopen.

It’s important for the Governor not to oversell the trend.  Things can change with this virus, especially since states are "reopening" without adequate mitigation programs in place (i.e., testing, tracing and isolation measures).   

New COVID-19 hospitalizations in Georgia back on the rise (May 23, 2020)
Data from the last month show a noticeable rise in the last week or so.

"One of the coronavirus statistics Gov. Brian Kemp has highlighted on numerous occasions as a sign things are improving in Georgia is active hospitalizations."

"He tweeted on Tuesday when the number dipped below 1,000 to 986, a 34% drop since May 1. Again on Friday, his office sent out a release that the number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Georgia was at a new low, 887 - a 40% drop since the beginning of the month."

"That overall falling trend is now, however, at odds with the rate of new patients being hospitalized."

https://www.11alive.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/georgia-coronavirus-hospitalizations-back-on-rise/85-bca8724b-b236-4d71-a0ea-db949df5eb5a
I wholeheartedly agree with the 1st sentence, and all governors need to not oversell and to stress that things can change in a day. I think Kemp is asking Georgians to continue social distancing.
I've been harping on the vulnerability of nursing home/long term care individuals for quite a while, and I wouldn't be surprised if an increase in hospitalizations may in part be due to increase in testing. Those people, unfortunately, may have passed away in their extended care situations previously. An increase in testing may be getting those individuals to the hospital now.
There appear to be few standards for statistics. I believe Minnesota has been counting the hospital deaths as long term care, whereas other states count the deaths as hospital deaths. An outbreak in a Washington nursing home was the beginning of U.S. cases, yet some state's have been discharging Covid positive individuals to nursing homes.
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Somewhere in Mn

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #250 on: May 23, 2020, 03:35:37 PM »
Quote from: ridingthegrange on May 23, 2020, 12:35:52 PM
Suicides in Colorado are down 40% for March and April according to today's Denver Post.  Also, overall deaths are up by 20% in same time frame.  Too bad we don't have CDC doing all the unbiased statistics that would normally be expected to guide us thru.
This makes everything clear as mud .....
https://coloradosun.com/2020/05/21/colorado-coronavirus-deaths-coroners/
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fucking

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #251 on: May 23, 2020, 03:48:55 PM »
Quote from: Mn on May 23, 2020, 03:31:38 PM
I wouldn't be surprised if an increase in hospitalizations may in part be due to increase in testing.

People are hospitalized when they're too sick to survive at home.
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illiniray

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #252 on: May 23, 2020, 10:42:02 PM »
Interactive zip code map for confirmed covid-19 cases in Illinois

https://www.dph.illinois.gov/covid19/covid19-statistics
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Custard

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #253 on: May 24, 2020, 11:18:37 AM »
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ThePAMan

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #254 on: May 24, 2020, 06:59:45 PM »
Quote from: Custard on May 24, 2020, 11:18:37 AM
https://apple.news/AEttBi3DmQsqUbZsIw_LNag

What are the odds that Americans en masse would follow the directives noted in the article and also wear the 2 masks given to them by the government?
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