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WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?

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Judge Judy

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #105 on: May 06, 2020, 11:36:37 AM »
Quote from: Mn on May 06, 2020, 09:30:47 AM
Quote from: ILLove1997 on May 06, 2020, 09:02:38 AM
RIP Illinois economy
How did you rack up 3 negative karmas ?

It appears someone is going around and doing it. I got one too and not sure how or why. Weird.
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murphstahoe

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #106 on: May 06, 2020, 12:04:50 PM »
Quote from: Mn on May 06, 2020, 09:29:57 AM

Did you mean to say that is fine for the people who test negative ?
Also, asymptomatic people are more likely to test false negative and pre-symptomatic people may not have a sufficient titer to show a positive test result for several days.
Negative results would probably require retesting for several days.
The Abbott tests are said to be about 85% accurate, while some other testing means may be 98% accurate. Throwing a few hundred million tests at the labs over a period of days might be a few too many.
I prefer the current way. Throw taxpaying people going to work in jail for violation of stay at home mandates to be able to feed their kids and fine them when they don't have the money to pay rent, mortgage, or food bills. Meanwhile, release criminals so the new criminals can practice social distancing during confinement.

This is why we can't get this to work, because you are thinking like Trump instead of thinking like Fauci.

You don't have to be 100% accurate for this to work.

Without mitigation, the general scientific consensus is that each infected person will infect 3 others, on average. Some will infect more, some less - for example if you get the virus and everyone around you has the virus, you will infect nobody because there is nobody new to infect.

To eliminate the virus, what you have to do is to get that average below 1. If everyone who catches it, passes it on to fewer than one person on average - so say if 10 people got it and they passed it on to 8 other people, for an average of .8 transmissions, then the disease goes away, because eventually the number of infected people goes to zero.

Every person that you can test that is positive and you fully isolate, will pass it on to zero people. That's the ideal - let's say anecdotally in some cases they pass it on to the tester, have already spread it, etc... but in the law of large numbers, if the average goes below 1.0, then the disease goes away. The lower the number, the faster.

MATH
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ThePAMan

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #107 on: May 06, 2020, 05:30:21 PM »
Quote from: Mn on May 06, 2020, 09:29:57 AM
Quote from: ThePAMan on May 06, 2020, 08:35:56 AM
Quote from: murphstahoe on May 05, 2020, 03:47:09 PM
Quote from: ThePAMan on May 05, 2020, 01:51:36 PM

The whole quote puts it into context.  What is the point of testing everyone in the general public on a daily basis, especially if you are practicing social distancing, etc. at this point? First responders, the meat packers, those who cannot or will not follow the guidelines,  etc. I get.

That's not the theory. If you can test everyone who we think could be of any issue, then isolate and do contact tracing to inform new tests, then the virus can be squashed.

That is fine for the people who test positive. You then need to keep retesting them on a daily basis to make sure they have not caught it after the last test, no?
Did you mean to say that is fine for the people who test negative ?
Also, asymptomatic people are more likely to test false negative and pre-symptomatic people may not have a sufficient titer to show a positive test result for several days.
Negative results would probably require retesting for several days.
The Abbott tests are said to be about 85% accurate, while some other testing means may be 98% accurate. Throwing a few hundred million tests at the labs over a period of days might be a few too many.
I prefer the current way. Throw taxpaying people going to work in jail for violation of stay at home mandates to be able to feed their kids and fine them when they don't have the money to pay rent, mortgage, or food bills. Meanwhile, release criminals so the new criminals can practice social distancing during confinement.

The point is his statement works if someone tests positive. If they do not, they still may contract the virus even an hour later. Ergo they would need to go through the testing process again and again.  That is unrealistic until testing becomes fast and cheap.
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ThePAMan

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #108 on: May 06, 2020, 05:33:09 PM »
Quote from: murphstahoe on May 06, 2020, 12:04:50 PM
Quote from: Mn on May 06, 2020, 09:29:57 AM

Did you mean to say that is fine for the people who test negative ?
Also, asymptomatic people are more likely to test false negative and pre-symptomatic people may not have a sufficient titer to show a positive test result for several days.
Negative results would probably require retesting for several days.
The Abbott tests are said to be about 85% accurate, while some other testing means may be 98% accurate. Throwing a few hundred million tests at the labs over a period of days might be a few too many.
I prefer the current way. Throw taxpaying people going to work in jail for violation of stay at home mandates to be able to feed their kids and fine them when they don't have the money to pay rent, mortgage, or food bills. Meanwhile, release criminals so the new criminals can practice social distancing during confinement.

This is why we can't get this to work, because you are thinking like Trump instead of thinking like Fauci.

You don't have to be 100% accurate for this to work.

Without mitigation, the general scientific consensus is that each infected person will infect 3 others, on average. Some will infect more, some less - for example if you get the virus and everyone around you has the virus, you will infect nobody because there is nobody new to infect.

To eliminate the virus, what you have to do is to get that average below 1. If everyone who catches it, passes it on to fewer than one person on average - so say if 10 people got it and they passed it on to 8 other people, for an average of .8 transmissions, then the disease goes away, because eventually the number of infected people goes to zero.

Every person that you can test that is positive and you fully isolate, will pass it on to zero people. That's the ideal - let's say anecdotally in some cases they pass it on to the tester, have already spread it, etc... but in the law of large numbers, if the average goes below 1.0, then the disease goes away. The lower the number, the faster.

MATH

That is correct. However, the question is how often do/can you test people who have not tested positive?
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Somewhere in Mn

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #109 on: May 06, 2020, 10:00:15 PM »
Quote from: murphstahoe on May 06, 2020, 12:04:50 PM
Quote from: Mn on May 06, 2020, 09:29:57 AM

Did you mean to say that is fine for the people who test negative ?
Also, asymptomatic people are more likely to test false negative and pre-symptomatic people may not have a sufficient titer to show a positive test result for several days.
Negative results would probably require retesting for several days.
The Abbott tests are said to be about 85% accurate, while some other testing means may be 98% accurate. Throwing a few hundred million tests at the labs over a period of days might be a few too many.
I prefer the current way. Throw taxpaying people going to work in jail for violation of stay at home mandates to be able to feed their kids and fine them when they don't have the money to pay rent, mortgage, or food bills. Meanwhile, release criminals so the new criminals can practice social distancing during confinement.

This is why we can't get this to work, because you are thinking like Trump instead of thinking like Fauci.

You don't have to be 100% accurate for this to work.

Without mitigation, the general scientific consensus is that each infected person will infect 3 others, on average. Some will infect more, some less - for example if you get the virus and everyone around you has the virus, you will infect nobody because there is nobody new to infect.

To eliminate the virus, what you have to do is to get that average below 1. If everyone who catches it, passes it on to fewer than one person on average - so say if 10 people got it and they passed it on to 8 other people, for an average of .8 transmissions, then the disease goes away, because eventually the number of infected people goes to zero.

Every person that you can test that is positive and you fully isolate, will pass it on to zero people. That's the ideal - let's say anecdotally in some cases they pass it on to the tester, have already spread it, etc... but in the law of large numbers, if the average goes below 1.0, then the disease goes away. The lower the number, the faster.

MATH
Is this the Virginia 2 year plan ?
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Custard

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #110 on: May 06, 2020, 10:56:29 PM »
We are so far behind this thing, I mean when 15-17% of people have it or have had it in pretty large peer groups, most of whom are asymptomatic, the cat is pretty much out of the bag at that point. And to PAMans point, just because someone tests negative once and remains asymptomatic it really doesn’t mean shit, it’s just a CYA thing for businesses and hospitals.

And the more and more we learn that so many people have or have had this with no symptoms whatsoever, it kind of puts a damper on this “stamping out the virus” nonsense. It’s going to eventually run it’s course, and people will either get it or not get it, some will die, some will get sick, and most won’t do either.

We are perilously close to a humanitarian crisis much, much larger than COVID-19, and that is due to lack of buying power, supermarket shortages, people losing everything they’ve worked for, hopelessness and despair, etc.
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ThePAMan

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #111 on: May 06, 2020, 11:28:12 PM »
Quote from: Custard on May 06, 2020, 10:56:29 PM
We are so far behind this thing, I mean when 15-17% of people have it or have had it in pretty large peer groups, most of whom are asymptomatic, the cat is pretty much out of the bag at that point. And to PAMans point, just because someone tests negative once and remains asymptomatic it really doesn’t mean shit, it’s just a CYA thing for businesses and hospitals.

And the more and more we learn that so many people have or have had this with no symptoms whatsoever, it kind of puts a damper on this “stamping out the virus” nonsense. It’s going to eventually run it’s course, and people will either get it or not get it, some will die, some will get sick, and most won’t do either.

We are perilously close to a humanitarian crisis much, much larger than COVID-19, and that is due to lack of buying power, supermarket shortages, people losing everything they’ve worked for, hopelessness and despair, etc.

A few concerning points: 1. The meat packers etc. may not be able to function adequately/reopen even if we open everything up given how many people were catching it in those places unless the industry starts changing the production lines (be it adequate PPEs for the employees, changing the production lines so people are not elbow to elbow, etc.)

2. Now you are hearing of kids getting sick with this Kawasaki Disease that is rare, but seems to be popping up in Covid 19 areas.

3. I saw someone claim that 50% of the US public has some physical issue making them susceptible to the more dire health issues caused by the Covid 19. Not sure how accurate that is, but if true, that makes a herd immunity strategy potentially far deadlier.

4. Correct me if I'm wrong, but if I am wearing a mask/face covering that helps protect you from me. But if you aren't wearing one, my mask/face covering may not protect me from you. (Do I have that right?) If true, and people are resistant to wearing masks/face coverings, people may be hesitant to go out anyway.
« Last Edit: May 06, 2020, 11:30:42 PM by ThePAMan »
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murphstahoe

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #112 on: May 07, 2020, 12:59:41 AM »
Quote from: ThePAMan on May 06, 2020, 11:28:12 PM

4. Correct me if I'm wrong, but if I am wearing a mask/face covering that helps protect you from me. But if you aren't wearing one, my mask/face covering may not protect me from you. (Do I have that right?) If true, and people are resistant to wearing masks/face coverings, people may be hesitant to go out anyway.

This is a big point here. If the "re-opening" looks like a clown show, people aren't going to go out anyway, so businesses will spend money to reboot and then have no customers, which will be worse than being closed down.

It's a crisis. Provide direct aid. No different than a hurricane or fire.
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Somewhere in Mn

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #113 on: May 07, 2020, 10:13:55 AM »
Interesting article about hindsight being 20/20.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/us/new-york-city-coronavirus-outbreak.html#click=https://t.co/rPWdKG1xaV

Tho the sample size is small, the conclusion appears to be that we should blame ourselves rather than the CCP. The strain passing thru NYC came from Europe. 100% of Louisiana cases in the study were of the NY strain. Each and everyone of us is responsible for allowing infected individuals to pass thru NY airports, the transportation systems, and on to the rest of the country.

Acting earlier would most likely have blunted the virus’s march across the country, researchers say.
“It means that we missed the boat early on, and the vast majority in this country is coming from domestic spread,” said Kristian Andersen, a professor in the department of immunology and microbiology at Scripps Research. “I keep hearing that it’s somebody else’s fault. That’s not true. It’s not somebody else’s fault, it’s our own fault.”

Anyone have any hard data from July 7, 2020 that they would be willing to share today ? lol.
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Custard

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #114 on: May 07, 2020, 10:56:03 AM »
Quote from: murphstahoe on May 07, 2020, 12:59:41 AM
Quote from: ThePAMan on May 06, 2020, 11:28:12 PM

4. Correct me if I'm wrong, but if I am wearing a mask/face covering that helps protect you from me. But if you aren't wearing one, my mask/face covering may not protect me from you. (Do I have that right?) If true, and people are resistant to wearing masks/face coverings, people may be hesitant to go out anyway.

This is a big point here. If the "re-opening" looks like a clown show, people aren't going to go out anyway, so businesses will spend money to reboot and then have no customers, which will be worse than being closed down.

It's a crisis. Provide direct aid. No different than a hurricane or fire.

Idk I think people are a lot more willing to go out than you think. Maybe not so much in large urban areas or if one is more at risk, but most people I know have gotten to a point where their financial, mental and social considerations outweigh their fear of getting COVID.

I wear a mask when I go out, and almost everyone I see has one on. That’s good. I’m not worried about getting it myself, I am concerned with potentially getting others sick. And almost everyone I talk to feels exactly the same way I do.
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alum74

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #115 on: May 07, 2020, 11:43:40 AM »
Here’s a link to the CDC prepared guidance for reopening the economy.   Interesting reading that confirms the significant challenges ahead for the U.S. economy to reopen safely.   

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6883734-CDC-Business-Plans.html

While some people seem to think there’s a choice between economic growth and the amount of death we’re willing to accept ("there are going to be deaths no matter what"), it’s clear from reading these guidelines that economic normality will not be close to possible as long as public health is still at risk. 

I think most here would agree that fighting the pandemic and stimulating the economy will be one and the same.
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murphstahoe

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #116 on: May 07, 2020, 12:50:22 PM »
Quote from: Custard on May 07, 2020, 10:56:03 AM
Quote from: murphstahoe on May 07, 2020, 12:59:41 AM
Quote from: ThePAMan on May 06, 2020, 11:28:12 PM

4. Correct me if I'm wrong, but if I am wearing a mask/face covering that helps protect you from me. But if you aren't wearing one, my mask/face covering may not protect me from you. (Do I have that right?) If true, and people are resistant to wearing masks/face coverings, people may be hesitant to go out anyway.

This is a big point here. If the "re-opening" looks like a clown show, people aren't going to go out anyway, so businesses will spend money to reboot and then have no customers, which will be worse than being closed down.

It's a crisis. Provide direct aid. No different than a hurricane or fire.

Idk I think people are a lot more willing to go out than you think. Maybe not so much in large urban areas or if one is more at risk, but most people I know have gotten to a point where their financial, mental and social considerations outweigh their fear of getting COVID.

I wear a mask when I go out, and almost everyone I see has one on. That’s good. I’m not worried about getting it myself, I am concerned with potentially getting others sick. And almost everyone I talk to feels exactly the same way I do.

Idk a lot of research has been done and polls have been taken by calling and talking to actual people and by an 80-20 margin people think re-opening is too soon. I know that is a bit Trumpy, I'm not giving a citation, but I'm running with it because I've heard that citation multiple times from multiple networks.

Fatigue is real. We went 6-7 weeks without ordering takeout, and have now done it three times in the last 2 weeks. I got a curb pickup of a trinket for my wife's birthday. When I got here I had 2 cases of beer, I was rationing it, but I ran out. My wife picked me up 2 bombers when she went to the grocery and instead of rationing those, I just said screw it, drank them, and then rode my bike to Russian River the next day and picked up a sixer, which I would not have done 6 weeks ago.

We were hard core adopters, it was 18 days from locking down until we went back to the grocery store, we did a pretty amazing job or making sure we upcycled all leftovers, scheduled the fresh stuff early and then moved down the scale to non-perishables, or baking. But we're relaxing that a bit, I keep seeing amazon packages so my wife is clearly more OK with the mailman and she's being less anal about the sterilization.

So people who started off doing anything that they "could do" - takeout from day one, etc... have moved their needle too. When I rode through town you can see that people aren't just driving to get takeout and taking it home, they are getting it and then sitting in the park and eating it, or even just sitting in the outdoor dining area of the restaurant itself.

So who knows, but we're not gonna see crowded bars and concerts for a while
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murphstahoe

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #117 on: May 07, 2020, 01:01:43 PM »
Quote from: alum74 on May 07, 2020, 11:43:40 AM
Here’s a link to the CDC prepared guidance for reopening the economy.   Interesting reading that confirms the significant challenges ahead for the U.S. economy to reopen safely.   

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6883734-CDC-Business-Plans.html

While some people seem to think there’s a choice between economic growth and the amount of death we’re willing to accept ("there are going to be deaths no matter what"), it’s clear from reading these guidelines that economic normality will not be close to possible as long as public health is still at risk. 

I think most here would agree that fighting the pandemic and stimulating the economy will be one and the same.

Trump, people like the Texas Lt Governor, "we are willing to accept a certain level of death". Trump has compared it to a war, you people are warriors!

The analogy will break down real fast though. The thing is, when you look at wars, especially if you look at the wars after WW II, wars are not fought by rich people. My dad didn't go to Vietnam, he went to work for a defense contractor. Trump had bone spurs. For the wealthy, they made this calculation that the economy was worth a certain amount of death based on a numbers calculation because they specifically will not be the people doing the dying.

It feels like they still think this will apply given coronavirus. And while statistically if you have money you'll be better off because you are less likely to have some co-morbidity because you have been able to go to doctors and can afford a better diet, etc... there are plenty of upper middle class people who are dead. And having good insurance or whatever isn't likely to give you a substantially better outcome if you get coronavirus, it will be like cancer, you can throw the kitchen sink at it but you might die anyway.
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Custard

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #118 on: May 07, 2020, 01:32:30 PM »
At what point is it time to let people make their own decisions? Are we gonna lock grandma up forever and just bring her stuff when she needs it and pass it through a sanitized grommet in her front door? Many in the public and government are willing to accept more deaths, perhaps even the risk of their own. We do risky things each and every day by choice, like riding a bicycle or driving a car or getting in an airplane or having unprotected sex or being in crowded places where germs are being passed around. Disease and death are part of life. There is always going to be some level of acceptable collateral damage in these situations because we literally cannot fully contain this or anything like it.
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alum74

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #119 on: May 07, 2020, 04:01:17 PM »
Quote from: Custard on May 07, 2020, 01:32:30 PM
At what point is it time to let people make their own decisions? Are we gonna lock grandma up forever and just bring her stuff when she needs it and pass it through a sanitized grommet in her front door? Many in the public and government are willing to accept more deaths, perhaps even the risk of their own. We do risky things each and every day by choice, like riding a bicycle or driving a car or getting in an airplane or having unprotected sex or being in crowded places where germs are being passed around. Disease and death are part of life. There is always going to be some level of acceptable collateral damage in these situations because we literally cannot fully contain this or anything like it.

We’ve always had laws and regulations that put restrictions on individuals to limit the damage their behavior could pose to others.   I don’t think we’re at a point with the pandemic where we can allow people to “make their own decisions.” 

The U.S. is only treading water when it comes to beating back the virus, and it appears that Trump is ready to wave the white flag.   It looks like his plan is to have no plan, to let daily deaths between one and three thousand become the normal thing. 

Another problem is the federal government and states are not providing clear, consistent and cohesive messaging about the virus.  We had that benefit with smoking, drunk driving, AIDS and other public health campaigns.  Local officials, businesses, institutions and citizens deserve accurate and regularly updated information about the virus so that they can better understand the health implications to better protect our communities and families. 

And finally, at what point will the US have robust public health systems to deal with the virus?  One of the key reasons for social distancing/shelter-in-place orders was to give us time to get testing and contact tracking up and running.  We’re not close to where we need to be. 

Bottom line:  we have a collective responsibility to get this pandemic under better control.   Other countries are making progress.   There is no reason why we can’t too.   
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