WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?

Judge Judy

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?

« Reply #105 on: May 06, 2020, 11:36:37 AM »

Quote from: Mn on May 06, 2020, 09:30:47 AM

Quote from: ILLove1997 on May 06, 2020, 09:02:38 AM
RIP Illinois economy
How did you rack up 3 negative karmas ?

It appears someone is going around and doing it. I got one too and not sure how or why. Weird.

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murphstahoe

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?

« Reply #106 on: May 06, 2020, 12:04:50 PM »

Quote from: Mn on May 06, 2020, 09:29:57 AM

Did you mean to say that is fine for the people who test negative ?
Also, asymptomatic people are more likely to test false negative and pre-symptomatic people may not have a sufficient titer to show a positive test result for several days.
Negative results would probably require retesting for several days.
The Abbott tests are said to be about 85% accurate, while some other testing means may be 98% accurate. Throwing a few hundred million tests at the labs over a period of days might be a few too many.
I prefer the current way. Throw taxpaying people going to work in jail for violation of stay at home mandates to be able to feed their kids and fine them when they don't have the money to pay rent, mortgage, or food bills. Meanwhile, release criminals so the new criminals can practice social distancing during confinement.

This is why we can't get this to work, because you are thinking like Trump instead of thinking like Fauci.

You don't have to be 100% accurate for this to work.

Without mitigation, the general scientific consensus is that each infected person will infect 3 others, on average. Some will infect more, some less - for example if you get the virus and everyone around you has the virus, you will infect nobody because there is nobody new to infect.

To eliminate the virus, what you have to do is to get that average below 1. If everyone who catches it, passes it on to fewer than one person on average - so say if 10 people got it and they passed it on to 8 other people, for an average of .8 transmissions, then the disease goes away, because eventually the number of infected people goes to zero.

Every person that you can test that is positive and you fully isolate, will pass it on to zero people. That's the ideal - let's say anecdotally in some cases they pass it on to the tester, have already spread it, etc... but in the law of large numbers, if the average goes below 1.0, then the disease goes away. The lower the number, the faster.

MATH

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ThePAMan

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?

« Reply #107 on: May 06, 2020, 05:30:21 PM »

Quote from: Mn on May 06, 2020, 09:29:57 AM

Quote from: ThePAMan on May 06, 2020, 08:35:56 AM
Quote from: murphstahoe on May 05, 2020, 03:47:09 PM
Quote from: ThePAMan on May 05, 2020, 01:51:36 PM

The whole quote puts it into context. What is the point of testing everyone in the general public on a daily basis, especially if you are practicing social distancing, etc. at this point? First responders, the meat packers, those who cannot or will not follow the guidelines, etc. I get.

That's not the theory. If you can test everyone who we think could be of any issue, then isolate and do contact tracing to inform new tests, then the virus can be squashed.

That is fine for the people who test positive. You then need to keep retesting them on a daily basis to make sure they have not caught it after the last test, no?
Did you mean to say that is fine for the people who test negative ?
Also, asymptomatic people are more likely to test false negative and pre-symptomatic people may not have a sufficient titer to show a positive test result for several days.
Negative results would probably require retesting for several days.
The Abbott tests are said to be about 85% accurate, while some other testing means may be 98% accurate. Throwing a few hundred million tests at the labs over a period of days might be a few too many.
I prefer the current way. Throw taxpaying people going to work in jail for violation of stay at home mandates to be able to feed their kids and fine them when they don't have the money to pay rent, mortgage, or food bills. Meanwhile, release criminals so the new criminals can practice social distancing during confinement.

The point is his statement works if someone tests positive. If they do not, they still may contract the virus even an hour later. Ergo they would need to go through the testing process again and again. That is unrealistic until testing becomes fast and cheap.

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ThePAMan

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?

« Reply #108 on: May 06, 2020, 05:33:09 PM »

Quote from: murphstahoe on May 06, 2020, 12:04:50 PM

Quote from: Mn on May 06, 2020, 09:29:57 AM

Did you mean to say that is fine for the people who test negative ?
Also, asymptomatic people are more likely to test false negative and pre-symptomatic people may not have a sufficient titer to show a positive test result for several days.
Negative results would probably require retesting for several days.
The Abbott tests are said to be about 85% accurate, while some other testing means may be 98% accurate. Throwing a few hundred million tests at the labs over a period of days might be a few too many.
I prefer the current way. Throw taxpaying people going to work in jail for violation of stay at home mandates to be able to feed their kids and fine them when they don't have the money to pay rent, mortgage, or food bills. Meanwhile, release criminals so the new criminals can practice social distancing during confinement.

This is why we can't get this to work, because you are thinking like Trump instead of thinking like Fauci.

You don't have to be 100% accurate for this to work.

Without mitigation, the general scientific consensus is that each infected person will infect 3 others, on average. Some will infect more, some less - for example if you get the virus and everyone around you has the virus, you will infect nobody because there is nobody new to infect.

To eliminate the virus, what you have to do is to get that average below 1. If everyone who catches it, passes it on to fewer than one person on average - so say if 10 people got it and they passed it on to 8 other people, for an average of .8 transmissions, then the disease goes away, because eventually the number of infected people goes to zero.

Every person that you can test that is positive and you fully isolate, will pass it on to zero people. That's the ideal - let's say anecdotally in some cases they pass it on to the tester, have already spread it, etc... but in the law of large numbers, if the average goes below 1.0, then the disease goes away. The lower the number, the faster.

MATH

That is correct. However, the question is how often do/can you test people who have not tested positive?

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Somewhere in Mn

12541
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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?

« Reply #109 on: May 06, 2020, 10:00:15 PM »

Quote from: murphstahoe on May 06, 2020, 12:04:50 PM

Quote from: Mn on May 06, 2020, 09:29:57 AM

Did you mean to say that is fine for the people who test negative ?
Also, asymptomatic people are more likely to test false negative and pre-symptomatic people may not have a sufficient titer to show a positive test result for several days.
Negative results would probably require retesting for several days.
The Abbott tests are said to be about 85% accurate, while some other testing means may be 98% accurate. Throwing a few hundred million tests at the labs over a period of days might be a few too many.
I prefer the current way. Throw taxpaying people going to work in jail for violation of stay at home mandates to be able to feed their kids and fine them when they don't have the money to pay rent, mortgage, or food bills. Meanwhile, release criminals so the new criminals can practice social distancing during confinement.

This is why we can't get this to work, because you are thinking like Trump instead of thinking like Fauci.

You don't have to be 100% accurate for this to work.

Without mitigation, the general scientific consensus is that each infected person will infect 3 others, on average. Some will infect more, some less - for example if you get the virus and everyone around you has the virus, you will infect nobody because there is nobody new to infect.

To eliminate the virus, what you have to do is to get that average below 1. If everyone who catches it, passes it on to fewer than one person on average - so say if 10 people got it and they passed it on to 8 other people, for an average of .8 transmissions, then the disease goes away, because eventually the number of infected people goes to zero.

Every person that you can test that is positive and you fully isolate, will pass it on to zero people. That's the ideal - let's say anecdotally in some cases they pass it on to the tester, have already spread it, etc... but in the law of large numbers, if the average goes below 1.0, then the disease goes away. The lower the number, the faster.

MATH

Is this the Virginia 2 year plan ?

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Custard

12173
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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?

« Reply #110 on: May 06, 2020, 10:56:29 PM »

We are so far behind this thing, I mean when 15-17% of people have it or have had it in pretty large peer groups, most of whom are asymptomatic, the cat is pretty much out of the bag at that point. And to PAMans point, just because someone tests negative once and remains asymptomatic it really doesn’t mean shit, it’s just a CYA thing for businesses and hospitals.

And the more and more we learn that so many people have or have had this with no symptoms whatsoever, it kind of puts a damper on this “stamping out the virus” nonsense. It’s going to eventually run it’s course, and people will either get it or not get it, some will die, some will get sick, and most won’t do either.

We are perilously close to a humanitarian crisis much, much larger than COVID-19, and that is due to lack of buying power, supermarket shortages, people losing everything they’ve worked for, hopelessness and despair, etc.

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ThePAMan

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?

« Reply #111 on: May 06, 2020, 11:28:12 PM »

Quote from: Custard on May 06, 2020, 10:56:29 PM

We are so far behind this thing, I mean when 15-17% of people have it or have had it in pretty large peer groups, most of whom are asymptomatic, the cat is pretty much out of the bag at that point. And to PAMans point, just because someone tests negative once and remains asymptomatic it really doesn’t mean shit, it’s just a CYA thing for businesses and hospitals.

And the more and more we learn that so many people have or have had this with no symptoms whatsoever, it kind of puts a damper on this “stamping out the virus” nonsense. It’s going to eventually run it’s course, and people will either get it or not get it, some will die, some will get sick, and most won’t do either.

We are perilously close to a humanitarian crisis much, much larger than COVID-19, and that is due to lack of buying power, supermarket shortages, people losing everything they’ve worked for, hopelessness and despair, etc.

A few concerning points: 1. The meat packers etc. may not be able to function adequately/reopen even if we open everything up given how many people were catching it in those places unless the industry starts changing the production lines (be it adequate PPEs for the employees, changing the production lines so people are not elbow to elbow, etc.)

2. Now you are hearing of kids getting sick with this Kawasaki Disease that is rare, but seems to be popping up in Covid 19 areas.

3. I saw someone claim that 50% of the US public has some physical issue making them susceptible to the more dire health issues caused by the Covid 19. Not sure how accurate that is, but if true, that makes a herd immunity strategy potentially far deadlier.

4. Correct me if I'm wrong, but if I am wearing a mask/face covering that helps protect you from me. But if you aren't wearing one, my mask/face covering may not protect me from you. (Do I have that right?) If true, and people are resistant to wearing masks/face coverings, people may be hesitant to go out anyway.

« Last Edit: May 06, 2020, 11:30:42 PM by ThePAMan »

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