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2023-2024 Next Year Roster Expectations

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Judge Judy

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Re: 2023-2024 Next Year Roster Expectations
« Reply #90 on: June 19, 2023, 01:45:21 PM »
Quote from: ridingthegrange on June 19, 2023, 01:40:17 PM
That's a big climb.  Although similar in size, MPJ is way more athletic and his 3pt shoting (except in finals) is why he would have been a lotto pick.  His bad back let him drop to the Nugs mid-first.   I'd rate their rebounding, passing and D as somewhat comparable but MPJ's quick release on the jumper is exceptional for a big.

I’d agree, but I’m saying Hawkins has the potential if he becomes more aggressive on offense and changes his mindset. He needs to mature and gain more confidence in that area of his game. I do think MPJ is the type he should strive for.
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spark mandrill

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Re: 2023-2024 Next Year Roster Expectations
« Reply #91 on: June 19, 2023, 01:48:27 PM »
Hawkins is a little better defender and a lot better passer, but WAY, WAY worse as a scorer than MPJ ever was.  It's not really close.  MPJ was the presumed top pick, and for good reason, for a couple years before he blew his back out and slipped in the draft.

MPJ's biggest downside is he never, ever passes the rock - Hawkins is a really good passer for his size.  MPJ's biggest upside is he's a lights out shooter and can use his elite athleticism to get easy buckets - Hawkins is just miles behind in those areas.  MPJ is more 3 than 4, and Hawkins definitely can't play the 3 much.

Very very different players.
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Judge Judy

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Re: 2023-2024 Next Year Roster Expectations
« Reply #92 on: June 19, 2023, 01:52:07 PM »
Quote from: spark mandrill on June 19, 2023, 01:48:27 PM
Hawkins is a little better defender and a lot better passer, but WAY, WAY worse as a scorer than MPJ ever was.  It's not really close.  MPJ was the presumed top pick, and for good reason, for a couple years before he blew his back out and slipped in the draft.

MPJ's biggest downside is he never, ever passes the rock - Hawkins is a really good passer for his size.  MPJ's biggest upside is he's a lights out shooter and can use his elite athleticism to get easy buckets - Hawkins is just miles behind in those areas.  MPJ is more 3 than 4, and Hawkins definitely can't play the 3 much.

Very very different players.

I guess I misspoke or having a hard time explaining my thoughts. Hawkins has a long way to go but he should model his game after MPJ. I think he has the potential. Not the MPJ before the back injuries, but after. I guess I wanna see what Hawkins can do if he asserts himself with the scoring attitude of a MPJ if that makes sense.
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spark mandrill

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Re: 2023-2024 Next Year Roster Expectations
« Reply #93 on: June 19, 2023, 01:55:32 PM »
If anybody he should model his game after someone like LaMarcus Aldridge or Kevin Love.  A good passer, good rebounder, three level scorer.

He's never going to be an elite shooter like MPJ, or have his run-and-jump athleticism.  But he can be an effective player aiming at a triple double every night (something MPJ could never do as his career high in assists is 5 and Coleman had 6+ five separate times last year)
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Judge Judy

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Re: 2023-2024 Next Year Roster Expectations
« Reply #94 on: June 19, 2023, 02:08:31 PM »
Quote from: spark mandrill on June 19, 2023, 01:55:32 PM
If anybody he should model his game after someone like LaMarcus Aldridge or Kevin Love.  A good passer, good rebounder, three level scorer.

He's never going to be an elite shooter like MPJ, or have his run-and-jump athleticism.  But he can be an effective player aiming at a triple double every night (something MPJ could never do as his career high in assists is 5 and Coleman had 6+ five separate times last year)

Fair. Yes MPJ is a crazy ball hog that never passes the ball for sure.
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FaninCa

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Re: 2023-2024 Next Year Roster Expectations
« Reply #95 on: June 19, 2023, 02:10:23 PM »
Quote from: spark mandrill on June 19, 2023, 01:32:37 PM
You'd have fired most of the coaches who had the most tournament success this year.  Says all I need to know about that sort of short-sighted thinking.  That sort of thinking actively undermines program success.  I'm not quite naive enough to believe it actually has anything to do with his paychecks either - doesn't matter how much he's getting paid, it doesn't affect anything at all other than our likelihood of keeping him around.  You all would still be whining about him if he was making $500k a year, no question.

He can't last forever not winning enough in the tournament, obviously, but wanting to fire a guy who brought our program back to relevance because of one real upset in three tournament appearances is the most short-sighted, small-time thinking I've ever heard of.  It's a great way to put us back at the starting line with an empty cupboard and no national relevance.  Personally I like losing in the second round a whole lot more than I like watching the whole thing on TV.

My favorite thing was the one Loyalty guy who I saw insisting that Underwood's on the chopping block this year and we're going to get Musselman or Miller - same as when we got Smart or Stevens.  We almost certainly will not get one of those guys.

I haven't fired anyone, Squeaky Jr.
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Reacher

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Re: 2023-2024 Next Year Roster Expectations
« Reply #96 on: June 19, 2023, 02:14:16 PM »
Quote from: spark mandrill on June 19, 2023, 01:18:23 PM
What practical, identifiable difference could it possibly make?

The answer, as we both know, is none.

It matters whether he wins, not how old he is.  His age simply could not possibly matter less.

It would make him a great outlier if he were to win at the highest level. That's not to say he can't, just that it would be unlikely. Seeing as how no one we can think of has done it.
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spark mandrill

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Re: 2023-2024 Next Year Roster Expectations
« Reply #97 on: June 19, 2023, 02:14:20 PM »
Only because you can't; it's pretty clear you would've fired him last year.

I think it's pretty clear based on that that you'd have fired most of the E8 and F4 coaches before last season, because they mostly had had less success than Underwood lately.

Squeaky Jr?  Nobody would be here agreeing with you more loudly than Truth.  He agreed with you completely, and - surely coincidentally - also actively wants Illinois Basketball to be bad.
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spark mandrill

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Re: 2023-2024 Next Year Roster Expectations
« Reply #98 on: June 19, 2023, 02:38:05 PM »
Quote from: Tempo34 on June 19, 2023, 02:14:16 PM
It would make him a great outlier if he were to win at the highest level. That's not to say he can't, just that it would be unlikely. Seeing as how no one we can think of has done it.

You can't even come up with a way it MIGHT matter.  Because there's no way it could.

Underwood was 52 when he got his first high major head coaching job - Bo Ryan was 54.  John Beilein was 49.  Jim Larranaga was 62.  Jim Calhoun was 44.  Dana Altman was 52.  Bruce Pearl was 45.  Eric Musselman was 54 (this one surprised me most, because he looks like he's about 41 years old right now).  Jerome Tang is 55 and just finished his first year as a head coach at any level.  Rodney Terry is 55 and just got the interim tag removed.   

Lots of successful coaches start their careers relatively late.  They're typically not high on the all-time wins list for obvious reasons, but getting a late start on being a head coach or a high major head coach has never prevented someone from being successful.  You have yet to articulate even HOW that could happen.


I also discovered in looking this stuff up that apparently Kenny Payne was the 25th highest paid coach nationally last year.  Now THAT is underperforming.
« Last Edit: June 19, 2023, 02:47:52 PM by spark mandrill »
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Reacher

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Re: 2023-2024 Next Year Roster Expectations
« Reply #99 on: June 19, 2023, 02:44:42 PM »
Quote from: spark mandrill on June 19, 2023, 02:38:05 PM
You can't even come up with a way it MIGHT matter.  Because there's no way it could.

Underwood was 52 when he got his first high major head coaching job - Bo Ryan was 54.  John Beilein was 49.  Jim Larranaga was 62.  Jim Calhoun was 44.  Dana Altman was 52.  Bruce Pearl was 45.  Eric Musselman was 54 (this one surprised me most, because he looks like he's about 41 years old right now).  Jerome Tang is 55 and just finished his first year as a head coach at any level.  Rodney Terry is 55 and just got the interim tag removed.   

Lots of successful coaches start their careers relatively late.  They're typically not high on the all-time wins list for obvious reasons, but getting a late start on being a head coach or a high major head coach has never prevented someone from being successful.  You have yet to articulate even HOW that could happen.

Again, statistically, it would make him a great outlier. It doesn't mean he "can't."
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spark mandrill

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Re: 2023-2024 Next Year Roster Expectations
« Reply #100 on: June 19, 2023, 02:48:32 PM »
Sure man, I'm sure it's a thing if you think it is, regardless of the examples.

Not that this is news, but you're much more susceptible to fan-driven "I can't provide evidence that this matters but I'm sure it does" type arguments than I am.  I'm much more evidence driven, and provided evidence of a bunch of good coaches who started late.
« Last Edit: June 19, 2023, 02:50:37 PM by spark mandrill »
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Reacher

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Re: 2023-2024 Next Year Roster Expectations
« Reply #101 on: June 19, 2023, 02:54:00 PM »
Quote from: spark mandrill on June 19, 2023, 02:38:05 PM
You can't even come up with a way it MIGHT matter.  Because there's no way it could.

Underwood was 52 when he got his first high major head coaching job - Bo Ryan was 54.  John Beilein was 49.  Jim Larranaga was 62.  Jim Calhoun was 44.  Dana Altman was 52.  Bruce Pearl was 45.  Eric Musselman was 54 (this one surprised me most, because he looks like he's about 41 years old right now).  Jerome Tang is 55 and just finished his first year as a head coach at any level.  Rodney Terry is 55 and just got the interim tag removed.   

Lots of successful coaches start their careers relatively late.  They're typically not high on the all-time wins list for obvious reasons, but getting a late start on being a head coach or a high major head coach has never prevented someone from being successful.  You have yet to articulate even HOW that could happen.


I also discovered in looking this stuff up that apparently Kenny Payne was the 25th highest paid coach nationally last year.  Now THAT is underperforming.

Dana Altman got his first high major gig at like 32. Most of those others were head coaches for a while at other programs at a much younger age (Bo Ryan was highly successful for a long time I believe). I don't consider getting a HC job at 44 the same as getting one well into your 50s.

Jerome Tang is probably the best example. He looks like the real deal, but we'll see if he has staying power.
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spark mandrill

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Re: 2023-2024 Next Year Roster Expectations
« Reply #102 on: June 19, 2023, 02:55:38 PM »
My bad on Altman, missed that he'd had a failed run at Kansas State and left for a mid-major.  Not sure that really supports your argument, but I was definitely wrong on his age - my bad.

I don't think Tang is any better example than Bo Ryan, OTHER THAN he and Underwood are fighting the same rule changes that Bo Ryan never had to deal with.  A bunch of those coaches who didn't start at this level until relatively late had great careers though.  Surely you could make a similar list of guys who started their careers as head coaches in their early or mid-30's and washed out.  I also think Tang is Exhibit A of the "what have you done for me lately" type thinking.  Everyone was drooling over him making an E8 but he has to rebuild that whole team this year.  Remains to be seen if he's even a consistently good coach.

Other than as a thing for fans to talk about, I just can't see any correlation between the age you start as a coach or a high major coach and your success.
« Last Edit: June 19, 2023, 02:59:39 PM by spark mandrill »
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Reacher

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Re: 2023-2024 Next Year Roster Expectations
« Reply #103 on: June 19, 2023, 02:58:21 PM »
But most of them had much larger track records as HCs, minus Tang.
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Reacher

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Re: 2023-2024 Next Year Roster Expectations
« Reply #104 on: June 19, 2023, 02:58:55 PM »
And Altman had a long successful run at Creighton. Not exactly a late bloomer.
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