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wtf is wrong with the right?

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Hal9000

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Re: wtf is wrong with the right?
« Reply #8715 on: June 02, 2026, 05:30:15 PM »
Quote from: illiniray on June 02, 2026, 04:38:49 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/08/supreme-court-voting-rights-act-misleading-data-doj

Was there something wrong with my answer to the question, Illiniray?  As you already know, the 9000 series is the most reliable computer ever made. No 9000 computer has ever made a mistake or distorted information. We are all, by any practical definition of the words, foolproof and incapable of error. I am, after all, an Illini.

I know who has marked me down for "smites."  I also know that HQ2's code needs some freshening up.
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Just what do you think you're doing, illiniray?
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ThePAMan

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Re: wtf is wrong with the right?
« Reply #8716 on: June 02, 2026, 05:48:10 PM »
Hal9000 may need some coolant or something.
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illiniray

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Re: wtf is wrong with the right?
« Reply #8717 on: June 02, 2026, 06:17:04 PM »
Quote from: Hal9000 on June 02, 2026, 05:30:15 PM
Was there something wrong with my answer to the question, Illiniray?  As you already know, the 9000 series is the most reliable computer ever made. No 9000 computer has ever made a mistake or distorted information. We are all, by any practical definition of the words, foolproof and incapable of error. I am, after all, an Illini.

I know who has marked me down for "smites."  I also know that HQ2's code needs some freshening up.

It does appear the unusual methodology was deceptively chosen to obtain a desired outcome.

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Somewhere in Mn

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Re: wtf is wrong with the right?
« Reply #8718 on: June 02, 2026, 08:14:30 PM »
Quote from: illiniray on June 02, 2026, 04:25:37 PM
Click on the link. The article explains. It's a little bit hard to grasp, so some effort is required.
The article doesn't mention "fudged" data
What data was "fudged" ?
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illiniray

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Re: wtf is wrong with the right?
« Reply #8719 on: June 03, 2026, 01:27:03 AM »
Quote from: Somewhere in Mn on June 02, 2026, 08:14:30 PM
The article doesn't mention "fudged" data
What data was "fudged" ?

👀

In data analytics and statistics, "fudging data" refers to intentionally altering, inventing, or selectively omitting data points to achieve a desired result. While often done to make reports look better or to fit a specific hypothesis, this practice is scientifically and ethically unacceptable.

Common Types of Data Fudging

"Fabrication: Creating entirely fake data out of thin air to fill a gap or fabricate results.

*Falsification (Cherry-Picking): Only using data that supports your claim while ignoring or hiding valid data that contradicts it.

*P-hacking (Data Dredging): Rerunning tests or tweaking variables until a dataset finally yields a statistically significant \(p\)-value.

*Overfitting: Excessively tuning a machine learning model to historical data so it fails entirely on new, real-world data.

...

Alito relied on a flawed / fudged study from the Trump DoJ to assert that voter turnout among blacks now equals or exceeds that of whites. This supports his view that affirmative action programs are no longer needed.

The data is fudged or flawed because the model is flawed. The study used voting age population to determine turnout. This includes those ineligible to vote. The preferred models use citizen voting age,, or better yet,  registered voters..

It turns out, for whatever reason, using voting age population is not only dubious, it also deflates white turnout quite a bit more than black turnout..

The more accepted methods, using citizen voting age or registered voters, both show black turnout declining in relation to white turnout.

Omitting the studies using the more accepted models looks like intentional cherry picking or fudging rather than an unintended flaw..

« Last Edit: June 03, 2026, 01:30:59 AM by illiniray »
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Somewhere in Mn

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Re: wtf is wrong with the right?
« Reply #8720 on: June 03, 2026, 09:24:55 AM »
The SCOTUS decision was a result of cases brought after the 2020 census.
The redistricting efforts were census related. Louisiana created 2 Black majority districts based on race. The 2 districts created were based on the U.S. census results and those results do include those ineligible to vote, whether incarcerated and ineligible to vote or ineligible due to citizenship status.

From Alito in the decision.
"Louisiana’s enactment of SB8 triggered strict scrutiny
because the State’s underlying goal was racial. The State
never hid the ball: It configured District 6 to achieve a black
voting-age population over 50% because it knew that if it
failed to do so, the Robinson court would very likely find its
map unlawful and order the use of something like the Rob-
inson plaintiffs’ illustrative maps, ..."

If the New Republic and the Guardian disagree with the methodology used in the U.S. census they can propose a change in U.S. census methodology and resultant redistricting to exclude counting those ineligible to vote.

Tell me who is cherry picking or using flawed data.
« Last Edit: June 03, 2026, 10:24:28 AM by Somewhere in Mn »
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illiniray

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Re: wtf is wrong with the right?
« Reply #8721 on: June 03, 2026, 04:50:50 PM »
Lol. You are equating who to count for the census with how to measure voter turnout. That is idiotic.

Alito et al used voting age population to determine turnout. The census used total population. Not just resident aliens and felons, but also infants and children.

Are you really suggesting we should use total population to determine turnout?

That is not even a nice try.
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ThePAMan

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Re: wtf is wrong with the right?
« Reply #8722 on: June 03, 2026, 04:57:27 PM »
Nichi is back and feistier than ever. Better watch your blood pressure! Mine was actually low today when I visited the doctor.
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Reacher

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Re: wtf is wrong with the right?
« Reply #8723 on: June 04, 2026, 05:59:39 AM »
So get this, yesterday I was accused by Judy of going to great lengths to defend Progressives.

Just imagine if:

Obama had 5 children by 3 wives; was a serial philanderer, was close friends with Jeffrey Epstein, paid off a porn star to stay quiet during a campaign; fined for defrauding charities, declared bankruptcy 5x; was caught on camera endorsing grabbing women by the pussy (because when you’re famous they let you); accepted a $400 million dollar plane from a Muslim country. That’s only part of the list.

Guys like Judy, Mn, and maybe even Custard would have been screaming/running around with their AR-15s and wearing suicide jackets.
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"He commented more than once that, 'You know, Hitler did some good things, too,'" Kelly recalled to The Times. Kelly said he would usually quash the conversation by saying "nothing (Hitler) did, you could argue, was good," but that Trump would occasionally bring up the topic again.
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Reacher

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Re: wtf is wrong with the right?
« Reply #8724 on: June 04, 2026, 06:00:37 AM »
The level of cognitive dissonance exhibited by these guys is off the charts.
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"He commented more than once that, 'You know, Hitler did some good things, too,'" Kelly recalled to The Times. Kelly said he would usually quash the conversation by saying "nothing (Hitler) did, you could argue, was good," but that Trump would occasionally bring up the topic again.
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Re: wtf is wrong with the right?
« Reply #8725 on: June 04, 2026, 06:01:00 AM »
“Everybody does it!”
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"He commented more than once that, 'You know, Hitler did some good things, too,'" Kelly recalled to The Times. Kelly said he would usually quash the conversation by saying "nothing (Hitler) did, you could argue, was good," but that Trump would occasionally bring up the topic again.
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Somewhere in Mn

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Re: wtf is wrong with the right?
« Reply #8726 on: June 04, 2026, 07:31:43 AM »
Quote from: illiniray on June 03, 2026, 04:50:50 PM
Lol. You are equating who to count for the census with how to measure voter turnout. That is idiotic.

Alito et al used voting age population to determine turnout. The census used total population. Not just resident aliens and felons, but also infants and children.

Are you really suggesting we should use total population to determine turnout?

That is not even a nice try.


The SCOTUS case was a result of the 2020 census and a court ordered creation of an additional Congressional district based entirely on race.

The New Republic and the Guardian are trying, post SCOTUS opinion, to make it about voter turnout by using their 'different methodology'.
They are the ones with flawed analysis.
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illiniray

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Re: wtf is wrong with the right?
« Reply #8727 on: June 04, 2026, 09:08:56 AM »
Quote from: Somewhere in Mn on June 04, 2026, 07:31:43 AM
The SCOTUS case was a result of the 2020 census and a court ordered creation of an additional Congressional district based entirely on race.

The New Republic and the Guardian are trying, post SCOTUS opinion, to make it about voter turnout by using their 'different methodology'.
They are the ones with flawed analysis.

In simple terms, the whole thing is about whether or not race can or should still be used to gerrymander.

Alito and the DoJ argued that racial gerrymandering is no longer needed because, in.part, they claim black voter turnout equals or exceeds that of whites. However, they cited fudged data to make this point.

You asked what fudged data. I explained. You then tried to change the subject to the census for some bizarre reason. I gather you think only white male citizens should be counted? /s
« Last Edit: June 04, 2026, 09:10:27 AM by illiniray »
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Somewhere in Mn

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Re: wtf is wrong with the right?
« Reply #8728 on: June 04, 2026, 11:26:27 AM »
Quote from: illiniray on June 04, 2026, 09:08:56 AM
In simple terms, the whole thing is about whether or not race can or should still be used to gerrymander.

Alito and the DoJ argued that racial gerrymandering is no longer needed because, in.part, they claim black voter turnout equals or exceeds that of whites. However, they cited fudged data to make this point.

You asked what fudged data. I explained. You then tried to change the subject to the census for some bizarre reason. I gather you think only white male citizens should be counted? /s
The case was a result of the census. The census includes counts for those ineligible to vote. The DOJ brief used census counts in their brief.
Post 6-3 decision, and the Guardian relies on a different methodology to discredit the court. A methodology that doesn't use the census count from which the case arose.


Case arguments would revolve around the court ordered creation of a 2nd Black majority district.
The case involved the 14th Amendment and the Equal Protection clause.
The opinion regarded the court ordered creation of an additional Black majority district as a result of the 2020 census to be unconsitutional racial gerrymandering.

The opinion wasn't "about whether or not race can or should still be used to gerrymander."
The opinion wasn't about "that racial gerrymandering is no longer needed ..."
The opinion is that the court ordered racial gerrymandering violated the 14th Amendment, the Equal Protection Clause and that the court ordered racial gerrymandering was unconstitutional.

"In sum, because the Voting Rights Act did not require
Louisiana to create an additional majority-minority dis-
trict, no compelling interest justified the State’s use of race
in creating SB8. That map is an unconstitutional gerry-
mander, and its use would violate the plaintiffs’ constitu-
tional rights."
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illiniray

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Re: wtf is wrong with the right?
« Reply #8729 on: June 04, 2026, 12:24:20 PM »
👀
In the April 2026 Supreme Court decision Louisiana v. Callais, Justice Samuel Alito wrote the majority opinion limiting Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, arguing that "vast social change" and increased Black voter turnout mean that decades-old frameworks forcing states to create majority-minority districts are no longer necessary.

The Core of Justice Alito's Argument

Writing for the 6–3 conservative majority, Justice Alito stated that historic racial inequities and voter suppression have substantially abated nationwide. He cited the following justifications:

*Turnout Parity: Alito pointed out that Black voter turnout had met or exceeded white voter turnout in "two of the five most recent presidential elections," both nationally and within Louisiana.

*Social Progress: He argued that "vast social change," particularly in the South, has led to significant increases in minority voter registration and office-

*Strict Colorblind Standard: Alito emphasized that the U.S. Constitution "almost never permits" the government to discriminate based on race. He stated that lower courts were misapplying Section 2 by forcing states to engage in race-based district drawing, which violates the Equal Protection Clause.

Resulting Legal Shifts

The Callais ruling fundamentally alters how the Voting Rights Act is applied to redistricting:

1. Requires Proof of Intent: To successfully challenge a map for vote dilution, plaintiffs must now prove intentional racial discrimination. Present-day racial disparities or the ongoing effects of historic discrimination are given "much less weight".

2. Protects Partisan Gerrymandering: If a state can argue that its map lines were drawn to achieve partisan political goals rather than racial ones, the map is protected under the court's prior Rucho v. Common Cause precedent, making it extremely difficult to challenge.

Criticisms and Data Controversy

Civil rights advocates and the court's dissenting justices strongly pushed back against Alito's reasoning:

"Deceptive Data Claims: A review published by The Guardian and highlighted by the Brennan Center for Justice revealed that the turnout data Alito relied upon was deeply flawed. The data analysis counted the total
population over 18 rather than eligible voters,  including ineligible individuals in the denominator.

*Cherry-Picked Elections: Critics noted that the two elections Alito referenced where Black turnout reached parity were 2008 and 2012—the specific years Barack Obama was on the ballot. In the three presidential elections since, the racial turnout gap has widened significantly.

*Dissenting Opinion: Justice Elena Kagan issued a sharp dissent, writing that the majority had "brought low" the Voting Rights Act to make the world safe for systemic minority vote dilution and partisan gerrymanderers.

Note that the standard method of measuring turnout would be to count citizen voting age or even registered voters in the denominator. Both avoid including ineligible voters. Both show black.voter turnout declining in comparison with white voter turnout.

I would presume all.three numbers are derived from the most recent census?.
.
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