Are people not going because of the Chief? That is just an excuse, I think. They are not going because the program has been a dumpster fire as you say.
Winning would cure a lot. But they will need "winning plus X" to get people to show up. The question is, what is "X"? I can't say I've sought to contemplate it until now.
I think a lot of people stopped going because of the Chief. And then once that habit of going is broken, it’s much harder to regain those people.
I think sports attendance is a very habitual thing. So any reason that breaks the habit (Chief, Losing, University politics, all games are on TV, loss of traditions, disillusionment with campus, student demographics ) , it’s going to be much much harder to bring those people back if they find other stuff to do.
But most forms of entertainment are like that. It’s really prevalent with things like DirectTV or SiriusXM radio. Those companies give out huge discounts for renewals because they know if consumers cut their service and realize they don’t miss it, it’s very hard to get them back.
Illinois is really in a pickle at trying to retain season ticket holders bc they can’t just give massive discounts like a satellite company could.
I think you are right that there has to be an “X” other than winning. I think attendance in pro sports is driven by mostly just winning. But college sports you need something else.