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WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?

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murphstahoe

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #1080 on: November 16, 2020, 01:53:12 PM »
It’s kinda funny that Indiana has a lower mortality rate than Illinois and it’s practically the Wild West over there whereas Illinois has been one of the strictest states.

The 7 day moving average in Illinois is .7 per 100k, in Indiana is .6 per 100k. Data from March isn't particularly meaningful when we discuss today's level of restriction.

Cook County is .5 per 100k - lower than Indiana's statewide number. DuPage is .4 per 100k
Marion County Indiana - Indianapolis - is at .3 per 100k - to counter that, rural Indiana is much higher, higher than Illinois' statewide level.

What does all of this mean?

First off, this is mortality rate, not case rate. Rural areas might have higher fatality rates because of fewer treatment options, older populations.

Second - strictness of rules will be more closely correlated with *cases*, not deaths. Deaths correlate with cases, but it's a second order correlation from strictness of rules. 
Illinois case load is 97/100k, Indiana 86/100k. That's significant. But again, Cook and DeKalb are below the statewide average for Illinois, as is Marion. The post above from Alum is potentially enlightening - that rural areas are just ignoring the rules anyway. Plenty of bars downstate that are supposed to be closed, the owner is just letting people in the back door and operating as a speakeasy

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murphstahoe

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #1081 on: November 16, 2020, 01:55:05 PM »
That is interesting. Perhaps Texas is a lot different than rural Illinois where many small towns have clinics and pharmacies. The nearest town to my residence boasts a population of 850 and has not one but two clinics affiliated with major health care providers in the region.

Plus people can get flu shots at about any pharmacy as well. I’d imagine pharmacies will be investing into the equipment necessary to administer the vaccine.

And on top of those factors, people in rural communities are also conditioned to travel long distances regularly.  I dated a girl from central South Dakota for 18 months. Her parents own a large ranch 20 miles from the nearest map dot of a town. Because that little tiny town serves such a large geographic area it does have the essentials like a gas station, grocery store, pharmacy etc. There are many more just like them and they all seem to survive just fine.

So I don’t think it’s going to be a nightmare logistical issue. Rural people who want the vaccine will be able to find a way to get it. I believe the real challenge is that a relatively low percentage of those people will want the vaccine in the first place. Especially one that uses a new technology that’s been rushed through production without the usual safety protocols.

The big issue, at least with the Pfizer vaccine, is that it has to be stored at -100 degrees Fahrenheit, requiring a pretty serious freezer, that doesn't exist in rural areas. There was a woman from Stanford on KCBS the other day saying "these just aren't in your local pharmacy - but I have five of them". Major urban centers will be able to store and deploy the vaccines much easier.

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Custard

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #1082 on: November 16, 2020, 03:26:35 PM »
Nearly every cow farmer has bull semen and/or frozen embryos being stored in a liquid nitrogen tank at -320*f in their barns. I suspect the refrigeration will be dealt with as quickly as the ventilator and PPE hysteria.
« Last Edit: November 16, 2020, 03:43:13 PM by Custard »
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alum74

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #1083 on: November 16, 2020, 03:31:55 PM »
The 7 day moving average in Illinois is .7 per 100k, in Indiana is .6 per 100k. Data from March isn't particularly meaningful when we discuss today's level of restriction.

Cook County is .5 per 100k - lower than Indiana's statewide number. DuPage is .4 per 100k
Marion County Indiana - Indianapolis - is at .3 per 100k - to counter that, rural Indiana is much higher, higher than Illinois' statewide level.

What does all of this mean?

First off, this is mortality rate, not case rate. Rural areas might have higher fatality rates because of fewer treatment options, older populations.

Second - strictness of rules will be more closely correlated with *cases*, not deaths. Deaths correlate with cases, but it's a second order correlation from strictness of rules. 
Illinois case load is 97/100k, Indiana 86/100k. That's significant. But again, Cook and DeKalb are below the statewide average for Illinois, as is Marion. The post above from Alum is potentially enlightening - that rural areas are just ignoring the rules anyway. Plenty of bars downstate that are supposed to be closed, the owner is just letting people in the back door and operating as a speakeasy

Looks like the Indiana Governor just announced new COVID-19 restrictions for his state. 

Gov. Holcomb’s executive order now in effect, new COVID-19 restrictions enforced
https://www.14news.com/2020/11/15/state-map-shows-over-k-new-covid-cases-new-cases-vanderburgh-co/

COVID-19 In Indiana: Number Of Daily Cases Doubles In Two Weeks
https://chicago.cbslocal.com/2020/11/16/covid-19-in-indiana-number-of-daily-cases-doubles-in-two-weeks/#scso=_sdeyX7SdEMXb-gSI7JLwAg87:0

Sick swarm Indiana hospitals as pandemic threatens to swamp health care system
https://www.ibj.com/articles/sick-swarm-hospitals

Almost 40 states are now seeing "unchecked community spread."   Not good. 
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/09/01/816707182/map-tracking-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus-in-the-u-s


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fucking

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #1084 on: November 16, 2020, 04:27:03 PM »
I suspect the refrigeration will be dealt with as quickly as ... PPE hysteria.

So ... still not fixed months later?

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fucking

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #1085 on: November 16, 2020, 04:28:16 PM »
And just when I was forgetting how casually you spread misinformation about a deadly serious issue.

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illinicalvin

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #1086 on: November 16, 2020, 07:55:06 PM »
Rural areas might have higher fatality rates because of fewer treatment options, older populations.
I would guess it's 100% correlated w/ age. Cook's median age is in the low-30s. Collar counties in the mid-30s. Every Illinois county that doesn't have a conurbation or college is well into the 40s with no volume in the 20-35 range (most likely to survive).

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Custard

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #1087 on: November 16, 2020, 08:00:10 PM »
And just when I was forgetting how casually you spread misinformation about a deadly serious issue.

My post was based on information from Johns Hopkins that reported that the SNS had over 100,000 ventilators stockpiled this summer and was actually donating some to other nations:

“Following an increase in ventilator production under the Defense Production Act, HHS reported that the SNS ventilator stockpile had been replenished. HHS stated that SNS had approximately 120,000 ventilators to distribute as needed.16 Additionally,
the United States was able to donate 250 ventilators to the Government of Egypt.“

https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/resources/COVID-19/COVID-19-fact-sheets/200214-VentilatorAvailability-factsheet.pdf

It was also based on information from The Atlantic in which epidemiologists told us that this virus would not be practically containable:

-The Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch is exacting in his diction, even for an epidemiologist. Twice in our conversation he started to say something, then paused and said, “Actually, let me start again.” So it’s striking when one of the points he wanted to get exactly right was this: “I think the likely outcome is that it will ultimately not be containable.”

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/

I stand corrected on the PPE availability. The dozen plus members of the health care community I know haven’t had any problems since at least May. Most of them never had problems. Obviously, that’s not the case everywhere.

I do think American industry responded well to the demand for consumer level PPE. I am acquainted with two business owners who started making hand sanitizer when their normal operations were suspended. Cases were stacking up in warehouses by June because the supply outstripped the demand so quickly. Masks and gloves were widely available even at the gas station level by that time as well. The local Casey’s had cases of hand sanitizer stacked floor to ceiling in the store area because they ran out of room in the back and the truck still brought more every week.

It appears there are a variety of reasons SNS and private suppliers can’t stay ahead of demand for medical grade stuff. Trump pretending this was no big deal until it was too late is a big one.  That H1N1 consumed a lot of the stockpile and no one ever thought to replenish it also seems to be a popular reason.

But my original point remains: If a vaccine rollout happens within 3 months, like we saw with excess ventilators and consumer PPE, I’d think everyone here would consider that an enormous success given the expectations set by the experts.
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ThePAMan

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #1088 on: November 16, 2020, 10:14:21 PM »
You don't hear news that Asian countries (commie bastards excluded), where mask wearing is not an issue, are having problems. Basically, we don't have the will to contain it because we are snowflakes.
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illinicalvin

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #1089 on: November 16, 2020, 10:55:14 PM »
Not just snowflakes, but implausibly cliched snowflakes.

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ThePAMan

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #1090 on: November 16, 2020, 10:58:45 PM »
Not just snowflakes, but implausibly cliched snowflakes.


Is that Gelato?
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fucking

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #1091 on: November 17, 2020, 12:42:46 AM »
Not just snowflakes, but implausibly cliched snowflakes.


I liked him better in the tiger show.

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ILLove1997

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #1092 on: November 17, 2020, 12:50:10 PM »
You don't hear news that Asian countries (commie bastards excluded), where mask wearing is not an issue, are having problems. Basically, we don't have the will to contain it because we are snowflakes.

in asian countries, people wear masks when they are sick, not healthy
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ThePAMan

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #1093 on: November 17, 2020, 01:53:49 PM »
in asian countries, people wear masks when they are sick, not healthy

Where the fuck do you come up with this shit? At least Mn cites to some Soviet propaganda website for his wacked out stuff.

https://www.voanews.com/science-health/coronavirus-outbreak/not-just-coronavirus-asians-have-worn-face-masks-decades

ILLove1997 and Gelato are a match...
« Last Edit: November 17, 2020, 01:55:36 PM by ThePAMan »
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ILLove1997

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #1094 on: November 17, 2020, 02:18:50 PM »
Where the fuck do you come up with this shit? At least Mn cites to some Soviet propaganda website for his wacked out stuff.

https://www.voanews.com/science-health/coronavirus-outbreak/not-just-coronavirus-asians-have-worn-face-masks-decades

ILLove1997 and Gelato are a match...

https://japantoday.com/category/features/lifestyle/why-do-japanese-people-wear-surgical-masks-its-not-always-for-health-reasons

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TOKYO

The number of people you’ll see in Japan wearing surgical masks is pretty surprising. Sure, Japan is a hard working society, and the spread of productivity-sapping sickness is always a concern at schools and workplaces, but that doesn’t seem like reason enough for the proliferation of facial coverings that sometimes has Tokyo offices looking more like an operating room.

Health concerns are only part of the equation, though, as recent studies have revealed multiple reasons people in Japan wear masks that have nothing to do with hygiene.

Until recently, masks were primarily worn by people who had already come down with an illness. If you were feeling under the weather but couldn’t take the day off, common courtesy dictated that you cover your mouth and nose with a mask, so as not to breathe your germs all over you class or office mates or fellow commuters.
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