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WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?

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Custard

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #915 on: September 29, 2020, 04:34:47 PM »
Idk people that had SARS in 2003 still show T cell activity for it 17 years later.

Regardless I predict continued hand wringing from Alum74, fucking, Ray, murph, snarky snipes at both sides from PAMan, and going on with life posts from IL97 et al

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fucking

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #916 on: September 29, 2020, 05:11:41 PM »
Quote from: Custard on September 29, 2020, 12:25:26 PM
You kind of contradict yourself here to some extent. You present a scientifically sound solution, but it’s dependent on rational actors

Nonsense.

First, you're misusing the concept of a rational actor. Lots of young people are acting rationally right now by going out and partying. It suits their self-interest. That's rational.

If our coordinated governments chose to crack down, many of the MAGAts and QAnons would shut up and abide the rules. Enforcing the rules against the ne'er-do-wells is feasible, whether it's ankle-monitors or mass incarceration. We could do it. It Whether it's locking them in the Superdome with cots & blankets or something like Manzanar, we could do it.  But I suspect the numbers would be so small that we could fit them into existing structures.

The FreeDumbs will discover that the Constitution, as interpreted throughout its existence, has a soft spot for exigent circumstances.
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Custard

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #917 on: September 29, 2020, 05:27:08 PM »
Quote from: fucking on September 29, 2020, 05:11:41 PM
Nonsense.

First, you're misusing the concept of a rational actor. Lots of young people are acting rationally right now by going out and partying. It suits their self-interest. That's rational.

If our coordinated governments chose to crack down, many of the MAGAts and QAnons would shut up and abide the rules. Enforcing the rules against the ne'er-do-wells is feasible, whether it's ankle-monitors or mass incarceration. We could do it. It Whether it's locking them in the Superdome with cots & blankets or something like Manzanar, we could do it.  But I suspect the numbers would be so small that we could fit them into existing structures.

The FreeDumbs will discover that the Constitution, as interpreted throughout its existence, has a soft spot for exigent circumstances.

I assumed a rational actor would want to stay safe, not get on the news for starting an outbreak, put their families at risk, etc.

But your leper colony/concentration camp idea is certainly fascinating.
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fucking

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #918 on: September 29, 2020, 05:49:52 PM »
Quote from: Custard on September 29, 2020, 05:27:08 PM
I assumed a rational actor would

It's an Economics concept. It's also a Law & Economics concept. From there, it's been harnessed for discussion within other behavioral sciences.

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murphstahoe

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #919 on: September 29, 2020, 05:55:19 PM »
Quote from: Custard on September 29, 2020, 02:52:05 PM
You have been saying this exact same shit for 6.5 months and outside of the first big wave it’s never come to fruition.

There is some really good information out there that basically shows the first wave type event will not happen again if you care to risk some cognitive dissonance.

You have argued we couldn’t control the virus because the rednecks aren’t mitigating yet the rednecks are just fine.

So now the argument is “well, the percentage of infected people is low because it’s being mitigated but we have to be careful or we will have corpse trucks”

I mean pick a lane dude. I’ve never seen anyone weasel their way to moral high ground the way you do. Even ILLove is preaching for older at risk people to be cautious and for those that encounter them to be cautious. But yet here you are throwing out the tired old nursing home card.

When did the first wave end, the one that happened and won't happen again?

The 7 day average had it's first local maxima on April 11 - 31,500

Today's 7 day moving average is 37,300 - higher than that value. Or are you saying the first wave didn't actually end until cases spiked up again in mid June off the May decrease that was a function of NY/NJ drastically dropping their case numbers?

As for rural rednecks and being fine - the top 15 per capital case loads last week were - North Dakota, South Dakota, Wisconsin, Utah, Iowa, Montana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Idaho, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, South Carolina, Alabama, Wyoming
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murphstahoe

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #920 on: September 29, 2020, 05:57:22 PM »
Quote from: Custard on September 29, 2020, 05:27:08 PM
I assumed a rational actor would want to stay safe, not get on the news for starting an outbreak, put their families at risk, etc.

But your leper colony/concentration camp idea is certainly fascinating.
You would suck at prisoner's dilemma
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fucking

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #921 on: September 29, 2020, 06:10:22 PM »
Quote from: Custard on September 29, 2020, 02:52:05 PM
You have been saying this exact same shit for 6.5 months and outside of the first big wave it’s never come to fruition.



Quote from: Custard on September 29, 2020, 02:52:05 PM

You have argued we couldn’t control the virus because the rednecks aren’t mitigating yet the rednecks are just fine.

There's this constant dichotomy of you seeming intelligent & intellectually curious versus you posting batshit crazy talking points from the furthest edge of the fringe.

Tony Tenpenny is a fine example of dead rednecks. But he was "old," so maybe doesn't count. Richard Rose is the poster boy. He flaunted Covid, got it, tried to rationalize his behavior, deteriorated, wrote an online mea culpa and died.



And of course ..


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Custard

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #922 on: September 29, 2020, 06:29:03 PM »
Quote from: fucking on September 29, 2020, 05:49:52 PM
It's an Economics concept. It's also a Law & Economics concept. From there, it's been harnessed for discussion within other behavioral sciences.

I studied economics at UI. Maybe that’s why I didn’t consider college kids partying to be financially or legally motivated.
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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #923 on: September 29, 2020, 06:33:48 PM »
If you studied Economics, you'll know that Economics is a human behavioral science.

Rational Self-Interest is not a variant of altruism.
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Custard

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #924 on: September 29, 2020, 07:19:31 PM »
Quote from: murphstahoe on September 29, 2020, 05:55:19 PM
When did the first wave end, the one that happened and won't happen again?

The 7 day average had it's first local maxima on April 11 - 31,500

Today's 7 day moving average is 37,300 - higher than that value. Or are you saying the first wave didn't actually end until cases spiked up again in mid June off the May decrease that was a function of NY/NJ drastically dropping their case numbers?

As for rural rednecks and being fine - the top 15 per capital case loads last week were - North Dakota, South Dakota, Wisconsin, Utah, Iowa, Montana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Idaho, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, South Carolina, Alabama, Wyoming

Isn’t case rate, hospitalization rate, death rate etc per 100k a lot more valuable than a rolling average that’s fundamentally skewed by the number of tests performed at a given time, over time?

The first screenshot is the worldwide trend. The second is the US. The US is spiking more so than the world average. The case rate is increasing while the hospitalization and death rate is decreasing. That seems really encouraging to me, unless, of course, case numbers are your primary concern.






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murphstahoe

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #925 on: September 29, 2020, 07:20:47 PM »
Quote from: Custard on September 29, 2020, 06:29:03 PM
I studied economics at UI. Maybe that’s why I didn’t consider college kids partying to be financially or legally motivated.

Apparently just Econ 101.

Get further along and you understand the concept of Utility Function. Money - and even jail time - is not the only currency.
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Custard

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #926 on: September 29, 2020, 07:38:40 PM »
Quote from: fucking on September 29, 2020, 06:10:22 PM


There's this constant dichotomy of you seeming intelligent & intellectually curious versus you posting batshit crazy talking points from the furthest edge of the fringe.

Tony Tenpenny is a fine example of dead rednecks. But he was "old," so maybe doesn't count. Richard Rose is the poster boy. He flaunted Covid, got it, tried to rationalize his behavior, deteriorated, wrote an online mea culpa and died.



And of course ..



I remember back when you hated ideologues and welcomed varying opinions. You’ve rooted yourself so deeply on a couple of things that I fear you’ve lost your ability to consider thoughts that don’t make sense at first glance. You’re angry a lot. It’s 2020 man, we are all developing and nurturing our own innate psychoses.

When I make my statements I’m looking at the entirety of our society. The whole of humanity. The trends and the data. Not cherry picked information that supports me premeditated position on a topic.

The rednecks are just fine. Case rates are high amongst rednecks but I hate to break it to you guys, the maskless covidiots are surviving this shit and they’re going to keep reproducing at a much faster rate than you.

I’ve called you out on it at least twice, but you keep using tabloid exceptions that prove the rule. I know murph particularly was really relishing the natural mass extinction of the American Redneck, but now his hopes rest on your COVID concentration camp fever dream.

And I’m the one that’s on the fringe 😳
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Custard

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #927 on: September 29, 2020, 07:44:42 PM »
Quote from: fucking on September 29, 2020, 06:33:48 PM
If you studied Economics, you'll know that Economics is a human behavioral science.

Rational Self-Interest is not a variant of altruism.

For a great many people, altruism is rational self-interest. And I don’t mean the papists.
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Custard

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #928 on: September 29, 2020, 07:59:56 PM »
Quote from: murphstahoe on September 29, 2020, 07:20:47 PM
Apparently just Econ 101.

Get further along and you understand the concept of Utility Function. Money - and even jail time - is not the only currency.

I majored. Human nature and thus economics = notoriously malleable.

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fucking

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?
« Reply #929 on: September 29, 2020, 08:07:16 PM »
Quote from: Custard on September 29, 2020, 07:38:40 PM
I remember back when you hated ideologues and welcomed varying opinions.

I've been a consistent Flat Earth denier.

Deadly respiratory viruses are not ideological. We don't care what the Flat Earth community has to say about them. We don't care what Trump's radiologist says about them. (We might be interested in his advice on radiology.)

You're running a disinformation-curious website during a pandemic AND during a foreign adversary's propaganda campaign. For the second time in a week, I'll warn you about your exposure. The fact that you're perpetuating these concepts knowingly, and not just recklessly,  graduates your liability. You are not a platform. You are a publisher.
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