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Downstate Domasks @ Purdue Jan 5 7:30 Central FS1

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Custard

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Downstate Domasks @ Purdue Jan 5 7:30 Central FS1
« on: January 03, 2024, 12:09:40 AM »
Quote from: Miles Leonard on January 02, 2024, 10:54:43 PM
Underwood also confirmed that they spent a lot of time gameplanning for the Cats post trap. It certainly showed so kudos to the staff and the players for executing. The buy in from these kids is tremendous. It's like night and day from last year's squad.

Shot selection has improved significantly. Even Hawkins isn't taking as many "wtf" step back threes anymore.

Let’s hope we can put together a game plan to counter Purdue. I think our length and athleticism could give them fits at the guard spots. Like everyone else, we have no answer for Edey.

We will double and dig on Edey, which means there is always going to be a guy wide tf open when Edey has the ball. Our length will help us with closeouts in those instances. I wouldn’t be mad if we applied a little pressure to their ball handlers. I think we contain Loyer but Smith gives us problems.

I still only give us like a 10% chance of us winning at Mackey without Shannon. Place is a nightmare to play at and they’ll be comfy. We won’t shoot nearly as well there. See us trailing 3-12 points most of the game. Never really out of it, clawing and fighting, but never really feeling like we have a chance to win, either.
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ILLINICHIEF

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Re: Downstate Domasks @ Purdue Jan 5 7:30 Central FS1
« Reply #1 on: January 03, 2024, 06:30:41 AM »
^^^^ this well done.
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Custard

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Re: Downstate Domasks @ Purdue Jan 5 7:30 Central FS1
« Reply #2 on: January 03, 2024, 08:53:21 AM »
Feeding off your thought in the NW thread: Dain was a bad matchup and looked awful against Purdue last year so I’m thinking we really need Coleman to bring Edey outside, take good threes, and make 2-3 of them. He also has to stay out of foul trouble on the other end, which I fear is going to be an issue. Hopefully Dain has a better experience this time around.
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Lkdog

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Re: Downstate Domasks @ Purdue Jan 5 7:30 Central FS1
« Reply #3 on: January 03, 2024, 10:29:20 AM »
Where teams have played them close or in the case of NU, beat them, it appears some combination of a few things is going on.

PU turns it over more than normal.  (We unfortunately do not force TOs)
Opponent shoots very well and/or gets to line a lot. (We have been en fuego lately)
Purdue is cold from deep. (We have been great at contesting twos, not bad at threes. They can shoot the three this year)

A critical factor will be rebounding.
Teams getting beat on boards vs Purdue. (We can rebound with them so this might get us more possessions than other teams).


Stick Rodgers on Smith and hope he can stay in front of him and disrupt their half court sets.
Shoot well from both two and threes. We are amazingly up to 34.6% on threes. Just stay hot one more game.
Rebound with them. We will.
Keep them from going off from three. They are at 39% this year and were as bad as us last year.
Goode or Harmon need to have a surprising game.
Guerrier, Domask, and Hawkins need to maintain level of recent play. None of them can lay an egg.
Forget about Edey. Just make him work. He is going to get his.




 
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spark mandrill

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Re: Downstate Domasks @ Purdue Jan 5 7:30 Central FS1
« Reply #4 on: January 03, 2024, 10:45:45 AM »
Biggest thing that worries me about Edey especially at their place is his ability to put some of our guys on the bench with fouls.

He draws almost 10 fouls per 40 minutes which is nuts.  And I promise he will get at least 3-4 really questionable ones in his favor on Friday.
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ILLINICHIEF

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Re: Downstate Domasks @ Purdue Jan 5 7:30 Central FS1
« Reply #5 on: January 03, 2024, 11:33:18 AM »
Quote from: Custard on January 03, 2024, 08:53:21 AM
Feeding off your thought in the NW thread: Dain was a bad matchup and looked awful against Purdue last year so I’m thinking we really need Coleman to bring Edey outside, take good threes, and make 2-3 of them. He also has to stay out of foul trouble on the other end, which I fear is going to be an issue. Hopefully Dain has a better experience this time around.

Dainja should be in the game whenever Edey is not, to capitalize on his abilities. CoHawk can hopefully make a slimmer Edey play more on perimeter, should open up some back cuts (overplays), and wing slashes (Guerrier-Rodgers). If Edey gets into foul trouble, I actually think the remaining Purdue team is even less equipped to deal with CoHawk/Guerrier.

Potential scoring in order to beat Purdue at home will need to be around:

Domask - 20 pts or more, likely it will be around this as he can command alot of attention and get to the foul line, less than 4 turnovers overall.
Guerrier - 13-15 pts going against Furst/Heide/Grillis - 8 rebounds
CoHawk - 12-18 against Edey and Furst/Grillis, 5-10 rebounds
Harmon - 8 pts to 12 pts.
Goode - 3-4 3's and 5 rebounds
Rodgers - 8 pts-10 rebounds-less than 4 turnovers (handling the ball primarily).
Dainja - 5-10 pts with 5-8 rebounds if minutes are there.

This in theory would give us a low water point mark of 75 points and a high of nearly 100 once again. Defense will prevail as will the physicality of the B1G will creep in as well, so the low water mark might be the most expected outcome.

Purdue averages 85 pts per game, the ILLINI give up an average of 65 pts per game.
ILLINI average 84 pts per game, the Boilers give up an average of 67 pts per game.

Expect a game in the low-mid 70's, with Purdue winning by less than 5 imo at home.
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Lkdog

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Re: Downstate Domasks @ Purdue Jan 5 7:30 Central FS1
« Reply #6 on: January 03, 2024, 12:13:15 PM »
Quote from: spark mandrill on January 03, 2024, 10:45:45 AM
Biggest thing that worries me about Edey especially at their place is his ability to put some of our guys on the bench with fouls.

He draws almost 10 fouls per 40 minutes which is nuts.  And I promise he will get at least 3-4 really questionable ones in his favor on Friday.


This will be a problem as it is for everyone. Hawkins especially needs to stay under control and not get any stupid fouls or lose his focus.
I would put Guerrier on Edey also. They both need to contest but not foul and stay on the floor.

We have nobody on bench that can play him inside. Dainja will get abused by Edey.


You see teams rally when their best player is out in sports.
At some point they go back more to their mean.
Not sure what that level is yet without TSj.

Has been a great effort so far though and better than anyone could have hoped.


I anticipate a close game if we are playing at this inspired level, but a loss.
If things go off track I think 12-15 loss possible.

But I think we will not be overmatched against anyone else in league if we keep playing this solid defense.


« Last Edit: January 03, 2024, 12:19:21 PM by Lkdog »
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ILLove1997

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Re: Downstate Domasks @ Purdue Jan 5 7:30 Central FS1
« Reply #7 on: January 03, 2024, 01:02:12 PM »
If we shoot like we did last night nobody can beat us even Purdue
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Judge Judy

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Re: Downstate Domasks @ Purdue Jan 5 7:30 Central FS1
« Reply #8 on: January 03, 2024, 01:20:07 PM »
Why are we discussing this? Just wait until the game is played. We shouldn’t speculate when we don’t know what’s gonna happen yet. Take this down now please…
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Lkdog

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Re: Downstate Domasks @ Purdue Jan 5 7:30 Central FS1
« Reply #9 on: January 03, 2024, 03:24:38 PM »
Quote from: ILLove1997 on January 03, 2024, 01:02:12 PM
If we shoot like we did last night nobody can beat us even Purdue

In last four games we have made over 10 threes a game and are shooting 40% .
42/106.

We will need 10 or more threes to stay with Purdue. Who knows. Taking better looks. Maybe we are developing into a solid three point team.
Changes everything.
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ILLove1997

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Re: Downstate Domasks @ Purdue Jan 5 7:30 Central FS1
« Reply #10 on: January 03, 2024, 03:37:30 PM »
Quote from: Lkdog on January 03, 2024, 03:24:38 PM
In last four games we have made over 10 threes a game and are shooting 40% .
42/106.

We will need 10 or more threes to stay with Purdue. Who knows. Taking better looks. Maybe we are developing into a solid three point team.
Changes everything.

Hawkins has been playing amazing, he's like Joakim Noah that can make a three once in a while
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Miles Leonard

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Re: Downstate Domasks @ Purdue Jan 5 7:30 Central FS1
« Reply #11 on: January 03, 2024, 04:10:40 PM »
Edey is going to get his. We're gonna have to be content with that. If we're going to double him, gotta recover to their shooters quickly because they have guys who can kill you from deep. We should also expect Edey to get a fuck ton of calls because, well..he's Zack Edey and it's in Mackey.

I wonder if Painter is going to have Lance Jones guard Marcus Domask so we can get the battle of former SIU teammates. That would be fun.

We're going to have to bring some of the hot shooting in the last 3 games here if we want to make a statement. We're playing with some of the biggest house money ever here. I'd be good with a hard fought loss.
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Miles Leonard

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Re: Downstate Domasks @ Purdue Jan 5 7:30 Central FS1
« Reply #12 on: January 03, 2024, 04:14:07 PM »
Quote from: ILLove1997 on January 03, 2024, 03:37:30 PM
Hawkins has been playing amazing, he's like Joakim Noah that can make a three once in a while

Hawkins is up to 35% from three on the year. He finally cut down on the Harden step back threes and is shooting the open ones with a lot more confidence now.
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ILLove1997

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Re: Downstate Domasks @ Purdue Jan 5 7:30 Central FS1
« Reply #13 on: January 03, 2024, 04:32:06 PM »
Quote from: Miles Leonard on January 03, 2024, 04:14:07 PM
Hawkins is up to 35% from three on the year. He finally cut down on the Harden step back threes and is shooting the open ones with a lot more confidence now.

Yeah his shooting lately has been much better in the selection department.  His defense last night though was 😍
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Custard

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Re: Downstate Domasks @ Purdue Jan 5 7:30 Central FS1
« Reply #14 on: January 04, 2024, 10:13:42 PM »
Quote from: Custard on January 03, 2024, 12:09:40 AM

I still only give us like a 10% chance of us winning at Mackey without Shannon. Place is a nightmare to play at and they’ll be comfy. We won’t shoot nearly as well there. See us trailing 3-12 points most of the game. Never really out of it, clawing and fighting, but never really feeling like we have a chance to win, either.

Lol. Greg on Sleepers Media just said he gives us 10% chance to win and 90% chance of single digits PU win. Good discussion.



« Last Edit: January 04, 2024, 10:24:50 PM by Custard »
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