Thus far the trajectory overall has been way, way, way up with a slight downturn last year.
I can't imagine arguing that overall his trajectory hasn't been clearly upward though, that's an obvious losing argument. Certainly last year was disappointing to only make the tournament, but compare that to the program he inherited. We'd made three tourneys in the decade before he was hired, and now just making the tournament is something worthy of mockery and snarky nicknames. That should tell you everything you need to know about his trajectory thusfar, no?