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Alabama (the A&M version)

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ThePAMan

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Re: Alabama (the A&M version)
« Reply #60 on: December 19, 2022, 11:48:47 AM »
Quote from: Lkdog on December 19, 2022, 11:46:02 AM
Guess we are not going to fire UW then?
And our whole team does not suck?

They all are going to transfer.
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Lkdog

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Re: Alabama (the A&M version)
« Reply #61 on: December 19, 2022, 11:51:45 AM »
Quote from: ThePAMan on December 19, 2022, 11:48:47 AM
They all are going to transfer.

They all suck and they all hate each other.

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IVMP

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Re: Alabama (the A&M version)
« Reply #62 on: December 19, 2022, 11:53:19 AM »
Quote from: Lkdog on December 18, 2022, 12:03:12 PM
8-3.
#21 Kenpom
Ranked #18

Kenpom, as an overall rating, is almost as worthless as the "win probability" stat.

However, I will say that some of the metrics within Kenpom are interesting. Not sure they are credible, but they are interesting.
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Lkdog

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Re: Alabama (the A&M version)
« Reply #63 on: December 19, 2022, 11:58:05 AM »
Wisconsin is ranked 17th and they are kind of terrible.
I am sure they will win 10 or 11 games in the annual BT shitfest, but they are torture to watch.

Purdue almost got beat by Davidson at home and shot 32% and 3/25 from 3. Fire Painter. I hear they all hate each other too.

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Lkdog

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Re: Alabama (the A&M version)
« Reply #64 on: December 19, 2022, 12:08:52 PM »
Quote from: IVMP on December 19, 2022, 11:53:19 AM
Kenpom, as an overall rating, is almost as worthless as the "win probability" stat.

However, I will say that some of the metrics within Kenpom are interesting. Not sure they are credible, but they are interesting.

I really like it. When you break down the team metrics you can really assess team strengths and weaknesses. Individual game probability is not perfect for sure, but over a period of time- it is pretty valid IMO. 
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IVMP

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Re: Alabama (the A&M version)
« Reply #65 on: December 19, 2022, 12:44:59 PM »
Quote from: Lkdog on December 19, 2022, 12:08:52 PM
I really like it. When you break down the team metrics you can really assess team strengths and weaknesses. Individual game probability is not perfect for sure, but over a period of time- it is pretty valid IMO.

"Win probability" has been exposed as virtually worthless in multiple recent NFL games.
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Lkdog

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Re: Alabama (the A&M version)
« Reply #66 on: December 19, 2022, 01:22:20 PM »
Quote from: IVMP on December 19, 2022, 12:44:59 PM
"Win probability" has been exposed as virtually worthless in multiple recent NFL games.

I guess someone does not like it. LOL. 
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Custard

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Re: Alabama (the A&M version)
« Reply #67 on: December 19, 2022, 09:27:30 PM »
KenPom is pretty damned good overall once a decent amount of season has played out. Torvik may be better.
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IVMP

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Re: Alabama (the A&M version)
« Reply #68 on: December 20, 2022, 08:30:55 AM »
Quote from: Lkdog on December 19, 2022, 01:22:20 PM
I guess someone does not like it. LOL.

Not sure if you are being intentionally obtuse, but I found a link that presents a similar view.

https://theoutline.com/post/7526/im-upset-win-probability

Of course, if you are determined to keep your current viewpoint, you'll pretend to have read that and then disagree with it.
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I am a former 5-star general. Or maybe it was 4-star.
Nichi claims a guard with a 1.3 assist-to-TO ratio is a good passer.
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IVMP

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Re: Alabama (the A&M version)
« Reply #69 on: December 20, 2022, 08:35:11 AM »
Quote from: Custard on December 19, 2022, 09:27:30 PM
KenPom is pretty damned good overall once a decent amount of season has played out. Torvik may be better.

The team-to-team ratings are interesting. However, later in the season, when someone breathlessly proclaims: "We're 296th nationally in giving up points on out-of-bounds plays, and WE NEED TO FIX IT!!!!" then it's time for a Major Dork Alert.

Later this week, when the major snowstorm hits, I might check out a few KenPomPom numbers to see where things stand.
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I am a former 5-star general. Or maybe it was 4-star.
Nichi claims a guard with a 1.3 assist-to-TO ratio is a good passer.
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Reacher

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Re: Alabama (the A&M version)
« Reply #70 on: December 20, 2022, 08:37:11 AM »
Quote from: IVMP on December 19, 2022, 12:44:59 PM
"Win probability" has been exposed as virtually worthless in multiple recent NFL games.

Ever seen a number come up 3x in a row on a roulette wheel? It happens.
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IVMP

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Re: Alabama (the A&M version)
« Reply #71 on: December 20, 2022, 08:59:19 AM »
Quote from: Tempo34 on December 20, 2022, 08:37:11 AM
Ever seen a number come up 3x in a row on a roulette wheel? It happens.

Not very often. There are 38 numbers on the standard roulette wheel, so the probability is (1/38)^3, or 0.00001822.

If you read the link I provided, there are NBA teams given a 90-plus percent "win probability" with a double-digit lead halfway through the 3rd quarter. That makes no sense.

I cited the example of Ravens-Bears last year. The Ravens literally had the ball inside the 25, needing a TD to take the lead, and yet the Bears' "win probability" was still at a ridiculous number.

Garbage stat cited by a garbage network.
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I am a former 5-star general. Or maybe it was 4-star.
Nichi claims a guard with a 1.3 assist-to-TO ratio is a good passer.
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Lkdog

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Re: Alabama (the A&M version)
« Reply #72 on: December 20, 2022, 09:55:36 AM »
Quote from: IVMP on December 20, 2022, 08:30:55 AM
Not sure if you are being intentionally obtuse, but I found a link that presents a similar view.

https://theoutline.com/post/7526/im-upset-win-probability

Of course, if you are determined to keep your current viewpoint, you'll pretend to have read that and then disagree with it.


Lighten up Frances.
I said I liked it.
You became triggered over it.
Sounds like someone has had a few bad weekends betting NFL football.
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IVMP

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Re: Alabama (the A&M version)
« Reply #73 on: December 20, 2022, 11:33:48 AM »
Quote from: Lkdog on December 20, 2022, 09:55:36 AM

Lighten up Frances.
I said I liked it.
You became triggered over it.
Sounds like someone has had a few bad weekends betting NFL football.

You said it was valid, which it hasn't been of late.

I assume you didn't read the link.
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I am a former 5-star general. Or maybe it was 4-star.
Nichi claims a guard with a 1.3 assist-to-TO ratio is a good passer.
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ILLove1997

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Re: Alabama (the A&M version)
« Reply #74 on: December 20, 2022, 11:36:50 AM »
Quote from: IVMP on December 20, 2022, 11:33:48 AM
You said it was valid, which it hasn't been of late.

I assume you didn't read the link.

its called probability not certainty

shit happens
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