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Da Economy

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murphstahoe

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Re: Da Economy
« Reply #450 on: March 18, 2026, 02:01:58 PM »
Quote from: ThePAMan on March 18, 2026, 01:59:21 PM
EV and solar panel makers missing some great marketing opportunities here.

Now we know why Musk supported this asshole
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ThePAMan

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Re: Da Economy
« Reply #451 on: March 18, 2026, 02:04:00 PM »
Quote from: murphstahoe on March 18, 2026, 02:01:58 PM
Now we know why Musk supported this asshole

He may be dumb, but he is not stupid.
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murphstahoe

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Re: Da Economy
« Reply #452 on: March 18, 2026, 02:18:33 PM »
Quote from: ThePAMan on March 18, 2026, 02:04:00 PM
He may be dumb, but he is not stupid.

This post - not a strawman
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Custard

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Re: Da Economy
« Reply #453 on: March 18, 2026, 04:02:43 PM »
Quote from: alum74 on March 18, 2026, 12:33:56 PM
Your words will comfort this Tennessee farmer.
https://www.wral.com/news/ap/aa846-iran-war-has-us-farmers-worried-about-the-cost-and-availability-of-fertilizer/#:~:text=Nitrogen%2Dbased%20fertilizer%20is%20especially,the%20farm%2C%E2%80%9D%20Littleton%20said.

Any farmer that waits until March to buy any fertilizer is a moron. I’ve been in 6 meetings this week with successful medium to larger farms that run their operations like an actual business this week in Indiana, and not a single one has expressed concern about in season fert availability or cost. Why? Because they bought it already.

It is absolutely reckless to go into the season without inputs locked down. Tells me right there that this guy runs a shitty business. A lot of these farmers down south in the Delta and W Tenn etc have been on the brink for 2 years now because they’ve hillbilly farmers who would have gone broke years ago if subsidies weren’t keeping them afloat. They aren’t businessmen. Farms stay afloat more by what happens in the office than what happens in the field.

Inputs have been really high and haven’t come down since Russia invaded Ukraine and we quit importing from them. And collusion.

Luckily for me I’m part owner and on the leadership team of a business that has patented products that allow farmers to use significantly less synthetic fertilizer, reduce costs, and get the same or better yields than their traditional fertility program.

Marketing contacted me a bit ago that a lead had come through and sent it my way. Called the guy and talked for 45 mins. By the end of the call he committed to using the products full farm (2200 acres) a 42k investment which will save him $120k.

So really this is going to be good for the environment by getting people to quit over applying synthetic fertilizers and good for their bottom line because it will open their eyes to trying new technology. Usually the biggest hurdle to the adoption of change in ag is finance.
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Custard

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Re: Da Economy
« Reply #454 on: March 18, 2026, 04:03:54 PM »
Also the article says it takes 45 days for raw materials to get here from the Middle East. That wasn’t getting made into fertilizer for this spring anyways. Quit lapping this shit up, you guys don’t even know what you’re talking about.
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murphstahoe

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Re: Da Economy
« Reply #455 on: March 18, 2026, 04:10:37 PM »
Quote from: Custard on March 18, 2026, 04:02:43 PM
Any farmer that waits until March to buy any fertilizer is a moron. I’ve been in 6 meetings this week with successful medium to larger farms that run their operations like an actual business this week in Indiana, and not a single one has expressed concern about in season fert availability or cost. Why? Because they bought it already.


Have they already taken delivery?
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murphstahoe

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Re: Da Economy
« Reply #456 on: March 18, 2026, 04:12:50 PM »
Quote from: Custard on March 18, 2026, 04:03:54 PM
Also the article says it takes 45 days for raw materials to get here from the Middle East. That wasn’t getting made into fertilizer for this spring anyways. Quit lapping this shit up, you guys don’t even know what you’re talking about.

Also apparently not knowing what they are talking about - the suppliers who raised prices on fertilizer not reliant on supplies in the gulf
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alum74

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Re: Da Economy
« Reply #457 on: March 18, 2026, 04:37:37 PM »
Quote from: Custard on March 18, 2026, 04:02:43 PM
Any farmer that waits until March to buy any fertilizer is a moron. I’ve been in 6 meetings this week with successful medium to larger farms that run their operations like an actual business this week in Indiana, and not a single one has expressed concern about in season fert availability or cost. Why? Because they bought it already.

It is absolutely reckless to go into the season without inputs locked down. Tells me right there that this guy runs a shitty business. A lot of these farmers down south in the Delta and W Tenn etc have been on the brink for 2 years now because they’ve hillbilly farmers who would have gone broke years ago if subsidies weren’t keeping them afloat. They aren’t businessmen. Farms stay afloat more by what happens in the office than what happens in the field.

Inputs have been really high and haven’t come down since Russia invaded Ukraine and we quit importing from them. And collusion.

Luckily for me I’m part owner and on the leadership team of a business that has patented products that allow farmers to use significantly less synthetic fertilizer, reduce costs, and get the same or better yields than their traditional fertility program.

Marketing contacted me a bit ago that a lead had come through and sent it my way. Called the guy and talked for 45 mins. By the end of the call he committed to using the products full farm (2200 acres) a 42k investment which will save him $120k.

So really this is going to be good for the environment by getting people to quit over applying synthetic fertilizers and good for their bottom line because it will open their eyes to trying new technology. Usually the biggest hurdle to the adoption of change in ag is finance.

So you've had six meetings and everything is hunky-dory in the ag sector?

Yes, some farmers can buy early (to lock in prices), particularly the larger or better-capitalized operations.  But in 2025-2026, many farmers are financially constrained and cautious.  The profits farmers made when crop prices were high a few years ago have eroded and balance sheets are tight.

More and more farmers aren’t just asking “Should I buy early?”
They’re asking “Can I afford to?”

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murphstahoe

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Re: Da Economy
« Reply #458 on: March 18, 2026, 04:51:20 PM »
Quote from: alum74 on March 18, 2026, 04:37:37 PM
So you've had six meetings and everything is hunky-dory in the ag sector?

Yes, some farmers can buy early (to lock in prices), particularly the larger or better-capitalized operations.  But in 2025-2026, many farmers are financially constrained and cautious.  The profits farmers made when crop prices were high a few years ago have eroded and balance sheets are tight.

More and more farmers aren’t just asking “Should I buy early?”
They’re asking “Can I afford to?”

Custard will bet you he's right! $10,000, right now!
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Custard

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Re: Da Economy
« Reply #459 on: March 18, 2026, 10:29:56 PM »
Quote from: alum74 on March 18, 2026, 04:37:37 PM
So you've had six meetings and everything is hunky-dory in the ag sector?

Yes, some farmers can buy early (to lock in prices), particularly the larger or better-capitalized operations.  But in 2025-2026, many farmers are financially constrained and cautious.  The profits farmers made when crop prices were high a few years ago have eroded and balance sheets are tight.

More and more farmers aren’t just asking “Should I buy early?”
They’re asking “Can I afford to?”

Strawman alert. No one said it was all hunky dory.

Someone posted an article interviewing some guy who is doing things very differently than what successful farmers typically do and getting burned in the process.

The last two years some people waited to buy and were able to get some last minute deals. This year it backfired on them because they failed to hedge their cost risk. Probably didn’t buy fuel either when it was at a multi year low all winter.

“Can I afford to?”

He can’t afford to buy late even more than he couldn’t afford to buy early.

He has four choices really at this point:

1. He buys the fertilizer at what it costs now and continues to farm this year as normal. He’ll probably lose money again this year unless crop prices rally to offset the additional cost.

2. He doesn’t buy it and maybe he’s hoping he applied enough in the past that there’s enough in the soil fertility bank that he has decent yields and he lives to have a better strategy for securing inputs next year. Or maybe it’s a colossal failure and he goes broke.

3. He reduces his inputs strategically which would lower his cost and still give himself a shot at a normal yield. This is pretty common the last couple of years but you still want to have a better strategy than waiting til the last minute hoping you’ll get lucky buying one of the most critical pieces of the puzzle.

4. He quits farming and the neighbor down the road who is a better businessman takes it over and hires him to run the seed tender.
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alum74

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Re: Da Economy
« Reply #460 on: March 19, 2026, 12:13:15 AM »
Quote from: Custard on March 18, 2026, 10:29:56 PM
Strawman alert. No one said it was all hunky dory.

Someone posted an article interviewing some guy who is doing things very differently than what successful farmers typically do and getting burned in the process.

The last two years some people waited to buy and were able to get some last minute deals. This year it backfired on them because they failed to hedge their cost risk. Probably didn’t buy fuel either when it was at a multi year low all winter.

“Can I afford to?”

He can’t afford to buy late even more than he couldn’t afford to buy early.

He has four choices really at this point:

1. He buys the fertilizer at what it costs now and continues to farm this year as normal. He’ll probably lose money again this year unless crop prices rally to offset the additional cost.

2. He doesn’t buy it and maybe he’s hoping he applied enough in the past that there’s enough in the soil fertility bank that he has decent yields and he lives to have a better strategy for securing inputs next year. Or maybe it’s a colossal failure and he goes broke.

3. He reduces his inputs strategically which would lower his cost and still give himself a shot at a normal yield. This is pretty common the last couple of years but you still want to have a better strategy than waiting til the last minute hoping you’ll get lucky buying one of the most critical pieces of the puzzle.

4. He quits farming and the neighbor down the road who is a better businessman takes it over and hires him to run the seed tender.

Farmers have been facing a profitability crunch over the last 2-3 years.  In addition to fertilizer, they're paying more for fuel, seed, and chemicals.  This makes it even more difficult to cover debt obligations, reinvest in their operations and build future reserves.

It's easy for you to sit in your cubicle being smug and downplaying the problems in the industry, but the Iran war just made it a lot worse for many who were already struggling with high input costs and declining commodity prices. 
https://www.fb.org/market-intel/declining-farm-economy-continues-to-pressure-profitability#:~:text=Commodity%20Prices%20Declining,record%20crops%20at%20competitive%20prices.
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Custard

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Re: Da Economy
« Reply #461 on: March 19, 2026, 02:28:01 AM »
Quote from: alum74 on March 19, 2026, 12:13:15 AM
Farmers have been facing a profitability crunch over the last 2-3 years.  In addition to fertilizer, they're paying more for fuel, seed, and chemicals.  This makes it even more difficult to cover debt obligations, reinvest in their operations and build future reserves.

It's easy for you to sit in your cubicle being smug and downplaying the problems in the industry, but the Iran war just made it a lot worse for many who were already struggling with high input costs and declining commodity prices. 
https://www.fb.org/market-intel/declining-farm-economy-continues-to-pressure-profitability#:~:text=Commodity%20Prices%20Declining,record%20crops%20at%20competitive%20prices.

I don’t sit in a cubicle, I travel all over the country meeting with decision makers for farming operations.

You make these reductionist comments with no mention of the fact that fuel has been low all winter, prices for grain have been up, interest has come down, etc. We all know input prices have remained high and commodity prices have been relatively low. A few months ago you showed zero mercy for farmers as you skewered them for their lack of gumption to create new markets and diversify their operations. Now you are crying for them because the Iran war or whatever it is temporarily is causing some price spikes for inputs that they shouldn’t even be pricing right now anyways.

Seed prices aren’t up. They simply aren’t. Fuel was at a multi year low most of the winter. Fert and chem has stayed high for years now because of collusion and Russian sanctions. Pretty sure you like Russian sanctions. Crop prices have been low because American farmers keep raising huge crops, and oil has been cheap. Supply > Demand = low prices.

Want me to go back and repost all the times you lambasted American farmers last fall or do you still remember it?
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murphstahoe

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Re: Da Economy
« Reply #462 on: March 19, 2026, 10:03:49 AM »
Hegseth says potential $200 billion Iran war spending request could shift: ‘Takes money to kill bad guys’

Mn and Custard - supporters of tax increases and deficits
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murphstahoe

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Re: Da Economy
« Reply #463 on: March 19, 2026, 10:06:25 AM »
Quote from: Custard on March 19, 2026, 02:28:01 AM
I don’t sit in a cubicle, I travel all over the country meeting with decision makers for farming operations.

You make these reductionist comments with no mention of the fact that fuel has been low all winter, prices for grain have been up, interest has come down, etc. We all know input prices have remained high and commodity prices have been relatively low. A few months ago you showed zero mercy for farmers as you skewered them for their lack of gumption to create new markets and diversify their operations. Now you are crying for them because the Iran war or whatever it is temporarily is causing some price spikes for inputs that they shouldn’t even be pricing right now anyways.

Seed prices aren’t up. They simply aren’t. Fuel was at a multi year low most of the winter. Fert and chem has stayed high for years now because of collusion and Russian sanctions. Pretty sure you like Russian sanctions. Crop prices have been low because American farmers keep raising huge crops, and oil has been cheap. Supply > Demand = low prices.

Want me to go back and repost all the times you lambasted American farmers last fall or do you still remember it?

Unless those farmers have a huge diesel repository on their farm - the price of diesel last winter don’t mean shit.

And for both fuel and fertilizer - buying hedges last year don’t mean shit if there is no product for physical delivery. The guys who ran “The Big Short” made a lot of money but in many cases were only getting 30 cents on the dollar for their insurance contracts because the counter party was broke
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Reacher

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Re: Da Economy
« Reply #464 on: March 19, 2026, 10:47:36 AM »
I guess doubling defense spending wasn’t enough.
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Wanting America to be better is not America-hating, it’s patriotism.
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