We found that while those two dots — the U.S.-Chinese trade war and Amazon wildfires — can be connected, Delaney exaggerated the link.
Can be connected.
The reason Brazilian weather moves the market is because the weather in the Midwestern US doesn't have much variance, but the Brazilian weather does, so that weather moves the global yield on the margins.
You presented an argument that Trump’s tariffs created a permanent competitor in South America. I offered evidence that South America became a permanent competitor decades ago. This is indisputable.
They probably did clear more acreage to meet demand, but per SA authorities they would have done that anyways after regulations were relaxed—the land just went to soy instead of cattle.
Also where did the consistent midwestern weather come from? Thought we were in the throes of cataclysmic climate change? Just this past fall Ray suggested that a corn field fire was the result of climate change, nevermind the fact that the prairies have been burned both intentionally and unintentionally for millenia.