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THE JFC Thread!

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spark mandrill

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Re: THE JFC Thread!
« Reply #1500 on: December 10, 2023, 11:00:38 AM »
Quote from: Troy Aikman’s Lackey on December 10, 2023, 10:58:20 AM
Can’t misses at that position go 1 or 2 at worst. Not 10th.

You think you know more about QB evaluation than Stewart Mandel at SI?

https://www.si.com/college/2017/04/10/usc-trojans-sam-darnold-ucla-bruins-josh-rosen

"UCLA's Josh Rosen was the can't-miss quarterback prospect in Los Angeles until USC's Sam Darnold took that title away from him last year. Their renewed battle is one of the top storylines of 2017."

Can't-miss prospects aren't real, that isn't a real thing.  Every prospect can miss.  Both the guys mentioned here as can't-miss prospects were bad in the NFL.

It's easy to say "can't-miss prospects DO exist!" and then simply refuse to acknowledge that the ones who missed were considered "can't-miss prospects".  That's just an incredibly stupid way to debate something, by using the result to disregard the earlier prediction.
« Last Edit: December 10, 2023, 11:02:13 AM by spark mandrill »
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Judge Judy

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Re: THE JFC Thread!
« Reply #1501 on: December 10, 2023, 11:00:51 AM »
Why are you trying to make him out to be more?!
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Because FOX News told me so…

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spark mandrill

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Re: THE JFC Thread!
« Reply #1502 on: December 10, 2023, 11:00:54 AM »
Quote from: Troy Aikman’s Lackey on December 10, 2023, 10:58:52 AM
They play in the NFL.

So they're a good passing defense?  Or no?

Brian Hoyer plays in the NFL - has for a long, long time now - but any win against him is completely disregarded because he isn't good enough.

So is Denver a good passing defense or not?
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spark mandrill

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Re: THE JFC Thread!
« Reply #1503 on: December 10, 2023, 11:04:58 AM »
Like it's totally fine to say, "well Denver's defense is an NFL defense so any good performance against them is a positive."  Totally fine.  But if you say that, then you can't handwave Bagent's success because it happened against bad teams - those are NFL teams, so by your own logic any good performance against them should be considered a positive.

It's also totally fine to say, "well Bagent won two but they were against bad teams so they don't count that much."  Totally fine, but if you say that then you can't continue to point to Fields' two performances against bad defenses as evidence to keep him - those were bad teams, so by your own logic any good performance against them shouldn't count that much.

What you're trying to do is hold both things simultaneously depending on which one confirms your bias.  Bagent won two but they don't count much because they were against bad teams; Fields had two great games and sure they were against bad defenses but these are NFL players, any good performance against them is great.
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spark mandrill

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Re: THE JFC Thread!
« Reply #1504 on: December 10, 2023, 11:07:48 AM »


"He can throw as well as anybody I've ever seen" - Troy Aikman on Josh Rosen
« Last Edit: December 10, 2023, 11:10:33 AM by spark mandrill »
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Reacher

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Re: THE JFC Thread!
« Reply #1505 on: December 10, 2023, 11:27:06 AM »
And yet he was passed up 9 times and by 3 other quarterbacks. Seems like “can’t miss” wasn’t exactly a consensus opinion.
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"He commented more than once that, 'You know, Hitler did some good things, too,'" Kelly recalled to The Times. Kelly said he would usually quash the conversation by saying "nothing (Hitler) did, you could argue, was good," but that Trump would occasionally bring up the topic again.
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spark mandrill

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Re: THE JFC Thread!
« Reply #1506 on: December 10, 2023, 11:28:25 AM »
It never is, because "can't-miss" isn't a thing that is real.

For everyone that's ever been called "can't-miss" and ended up a Hall of Famer, there are guys like Rosen or Darnold who were called "can't-miss" and flamed out.  That's exactly my point - "can't miss prospect" isn't a real thing.  EVERY prospect can miss.

But maybe you know more than Troy Aikman about playing QB.  Just pointing out that credible people disagree with you.
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Reacher

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Re: THE JFC Thread!
« Reply #1507 on: December 10, 2023, 11:29:33 AM »
Of course, anyone can miss. But there are a handful of prospects that are virtually sure things. Elway, Luck, Manning, Barkley, Lawrence, and soon to be MHJ are about as sure a thing as you can get. But if you want to claim victory on the literal interpretation of “can’t miss,” I won’t fight you.
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"He commented more than once that, 'You know, Hitler did some good things, too,'" Kelly recalled to The Times. Kelly said he would usually quash the conversation by saying "nothing (Hitler) did, you could argue, was good," but that Trump would occasionally bring up the topic again.
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spark mandrill

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Re: THE JFC Thread!
« Reply #1508 on: December 10, 2023, 11:31:27 AM »
Quote from: Troy Aikman’s Lackey on December 10, 2023, 11:29:33 AM
Of course, anyone can miss. But there are a handful of prospects that are virtually sure things. Elway, Luck, Manning, Barkley, Lawrence, and soon to be MHJ are about as sure a thing as you can get. But if you want to claim victory on the literal interpretation of “can’t miss,” I won’t fight you.

But to repeat - I can find a similar list of guys who were called "can't miss prospects" who did miss.  When your response to that is to say, "well they weren't can't miss prospects" - no shit, but they WERE called "can't miss prospects".  That's my point.  Every prospect can miss.  No one knows.  Even the guys evaluators think are "can't miss prospects" can miss.
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Reacher

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Re: THE JFC Thread!
« Reply #1509 on: December 10, 2023, 11:32:41 AM »
Andrew Luck and Trevor Lawrence were “can’t misses.” Josh Rosen was not, and his draft position reflects that.
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"He commented more than once that, 'You know, Hitler did some good things, too,'" Kelly recalled to The Times. Kelly said he would usually quash the conversation by saying "nothing (Hitler) did, you could argue, was good," but that Trump would occasionally bring up the topic again.
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Judge Judy

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Re: THE JFC Thread!
« Reply #1510 on: December 10, 2023, 11:35:47 AM »
Quote from: Troy Aikman’s Lackey on December 10, 2023, 11:32:41 AM
Andrew Luck and Trevor Lawrence were “can’t misses.” Josh Rosen was not, and his draft position reflects that.

Ryan Leaf was a cant miss prospect as well. You don’t use him because he doesn’t fit your narrative. You have hindsight to look back and you’re not gonna use that because he failed. What’s you’re doing is intellectually dishonest.
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spark mandrill

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Re: THE JFC Thread!
« Reply #1511 on: December 10, 2023, 11:38:19 AM »
Quote from: Troy Aikman’s Lackey on December 10, 2023, 11:32:41 AM
Andrew Luck and Trevor Lawrence were “can’t misses.” Josh Rosen was not, and his draft position reflects that.

And yet, before the draft many people thought he was - along with Sam Darnold.  It's almost like that isn't a real thing, huh?  If only someone had been saying that.

Do you think you know more about playing QB than Troy Aikman?  Credible people disagree with you.  Josh Rosen was the best at throwing the ball that Troy Aikman had ever seen.  Google his name and "can't miss" and you'll find lots of hits.  Same with Darnold.

It's easy to look back at the guys who didn't miss and say "no THESE guys were the REAL can't miss prospects", it's just an exceptionally dumb way to argue.
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Reacher

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Re: THE JFC Thread!
« Reply #1512 on: December 10, 2023, 11:43:00 AM »
I don’t recall Leaf being a “can’t miss.” I remember GMs being tantalized by his upside. Ultimately Peyton Manning was deemed the more “can’t miss,” as he was picked first. As I remember it, it was the certainty of Manning vs the upside of Leaf.
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"He commented more than once that, 'You know, Hitler did some good things, too,'" Kelly recalled to The Times. Kelly said he would usually quash the conversation by saying "nothing (Hitler) did, you could argue, was good," but that Trump would occasionally bring up the topic again.
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Reacher

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Re: THE JFC Thread!
« Reply #1513 on: December 10, 2023, 11:45:06 AM »
Anyway, I am done with the “can’t miss” debate because there will be no resolution and that conversation sucks. I do find humor in a “can’t miss” quarterback being the 4th quarterback taken off the board behind 6 non-quarterbacks though.
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"He commented more than once that, 'You know, Hitler did some good things, too,'" Kelly recalled to The Times. Kelly said he would usually quash the conversation by saying "nothing (Hitler) did, you could argue, was good," but that Trump would occasionally bring up the topic again.
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spark mandrill

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Re: THE JFC Thread!
« Reply #1514 on: December 10, 2023, 11:49:23 AM »
Quote from: Troy Aikman’s Lackey on December 10, 2023, 11:32:41 AM
Andrew Luck and Trevor Lawrence were “can’t misses.” Josh Rosen was not, and his draft position reflects that.

No one is a can't miss.  If they were, then there wouldn't be a long list of guys who were called "can't miss prospects" who missed.

It's incredibly easy to look back, pick the ones who DIDN'T miss, and say "look, THESE were the REAL can't miss prospects".  That's also very stupid.
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