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The “Debate” 6/27/2024

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murphstahoe

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Re: The “Debate” 6/27/2024
« Reply #60 on: June 28, 2024, 09:47:39 AM »
Quote from: alum74 on June 28, 2024, 08:32:07 AM
The election is in November Murph. Those 2024 tax revenues won't matter.  Republicans would be relentless in pointing out the current budgetary problems in California.  And the message would be simple.  A $100+ billion surplus turned into a $45 billion deficit in just three years.  Do you want this guy handling your checkbook?  Rinse and repeat.   


https://www.pasadenanow.com/main/californias-budget-whiplash-from-a-record-setting-surplus-to-a-massive-shortfall-in-one-year-2

Dovetails with what I said. The GOP caused a bit of a problem in the 70's when they kneecapped property taxes. So we rely on income taxes. And since this is a growth oriented state, a huge chunk of the income taxes come from cap gains on big gains, especially with a progressive tax system. That and RSUs that lever big gains that are ordinary income, not cap gains.

And that's subject to big swings. The state constitution doesn't like the big surpluses, so the whipsaw gets tricky, the rainy day fund helps a lot. But in the end, if we were so screwed, we wouldn't have the world's 5th largest economy.
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Custard

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Re: The “Debate” 6/27/2024
« Reply #61 on: June 28, 2024, 09:52:05 AM »
Found a needlessly long but pretty solid substack update from Freddie DeBoer in my email this morning. It makes a lot of good points, but this one was interesting to me:

Quote
Indeed, Harris’ manner of speaking is so consistently confusing that you get this kind of defensiveness from admirers in the media. Typically, if people feel like they have to constantly apologize for you in that way, it means that you’re not an effective speaker, and voters simply won’t care whether you have a good excuse for that problem or not. She doesn’t poll well, she performed very badly even among Democrats in the primary, she’s gaffe-prone, she’s a bad candidate. It’s not clear that running her out there instead of Joe Biden would even help.

But she has a very loud, angry, and vengeful fanbase, and Harris herself is an explicit fan of the KHive. If party leaders tried to choose someone else to replace Biden should he decide to step aside, how would that go down within the party? Gavin Newsom is a name you see a lot, and while I find the man a slimy huckster, he’s exactly what you’d want to run out against Trump: a standard-issue Democrat who’s not Trump, an experienced and skilled politician, coherent and slick and capable of bringing up abortion and Trump’s felony conviction. He’d probably have a good base of support and cause your average Democrat to breathe a sigh of relief. But the optics of a white man replacing a Black woman who is the sitting Vice President of the United States… from an identity lens, that’s as bad as it gets, right? That’s exactly what liberals always complain about, right? That’s an insult to everything the party has said that it stands for in recent years, right? Can the party’s poohbahs like Obama and Bill Clinton and Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi make a switch from Biden to someone other than Harris, should Biden step aside? Would it destroy the party if they tried to?

Guess we should have had a primary, huh!

« Last Edit: June 28, 2024, 09:58:18 AM by Custard »
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Judge Judy

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Re: The “Debate” 6/27/2024
« Reply #62 on: June 28, 2024, 09:56:21 AM »
Quote from: murphstahoe on June 28, 2024, 12:03:37 AM
Both residents of Florida, illegal per this little document called "The Constitution" that you folks seem to love so much except when it's inconvenient.

Oh, I realize that. If Trump really wanted him (I don’t think he does) that issue could be fixed rather easily.
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murphstahoe

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Re: The “Debate” 6/27/2024
« Reply #63 on: June 28, 2024, 09:56:27 AM »
Trump says "I said peacefully and patriotically" to his crowds.

He also says he offered 10k national guard troops to Nancy Pelosi.

If his crowds were gonna be peaceful and patriotic - why would he need to order up 10,000 National Guard troops, for a bunch of peaceful protestors?

Maybe Tom Cruise should run

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alum74

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Re: The “Debate” 6/27/2024
« Reply #64 on: June 28, 2024, 09:59:06 AM »
Quote from: murphstahoe on June 28, 2024, 09:41:51 AM
Where's your citation on this anyway? If we had a $100 billion surplus, then go 45 into deficit, that leaves us 55 billion to the positive, n'est pas? I'm certainly not hearing of any needed austerity measures.

California's economy is a monster. Just three California companies are 15% of the entire S&P 500 index value.

https://apnews.com/article/california-budget-deficit-18ff9c1ec885ec5bc69e790a836d9bdd

https://calmatters.org/commentary/2024/06/california-budget-deficit-deal-gimmicks/

https://www.cbsnews.com/sacramento/news/what-contributed-to-californias-record-68-billion-budget-deficit/

What you need to think about is how the average voter outside of California will react to the headlines and messaging.  The rest is just noise. 

Re: your followup post.  As Ronald Reagan said,  “If you're explaining, you're losing.”
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murphstahoe

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Re: The “Debate” 6/27/2024
« Reply #65 on: June 28, 2024, 10:05:46 AM »
Quote from: alum74 on June 28, 2024, 09:59:06 AM

Re: your followup post.  As Ronald Reagan said,  “If you're explaining, you're losing.”

truth. I'm not trying to win anything, just explaining.

Newsom - if he's doing it right and he's done so on Hannity - just needs to point out that California has the world's 5th largest economy, is the cradle of the technology that's driving the country right now (Apple and Nvidia are over 10% of your 401k index funds), storming ag sector, future looking (CAHSR, the new dam we'll put on the Sacramento to store more water given climate change), etc...

Plenty of positives to point out, and just say "our revenue fluctuates and we're very skilled at handling it, otherwise we wouldn't be the powerhouse that we are"
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ThePAMan

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Re: The “Debate” 6/27/2024
« Reply #66 on: June 28, 2024, 10:10:04 AM »
Quote from: Custard on June 28, 2024, 09:52:05 AM
Found a needlessly long but pretty solid substack update from Freddie DeBoer in my email this morning. It makes a lot of good points, but this one was interesting to me:

Was agnostic about her until she flip-flopped on crime. Fuck that asshole.
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alum74

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Re: The “Debate” 6/27/2024
« Reply #67 on: June 28, 2024, 10:13:29 AM »
Quote from: murphstahoe on June 28, 2024, 10:05:46 AM
truth. I'm not trying to win anything, just explaining.

Newsom - if he's doing it right and he's done so on Hannity - just needs to point out that California has the world's 5th largest economy, is the cradle of the technology that's driving the country right now (Apple and Nvidia are over 10% of your 401k index funds), storming ag sector, future looking (CAHSR, the new dam we'll put on the Sacramento to store more water given climate change), etc...

Plenty of positives to point out, and just say "our revenue fluctuates and we're very skilled at handling it, otherwise we wouldn't be the powerhouse that we are"

It's not the possibility of a replacement that worries me.  It's the logistics of making it and then having some people walk away butthurt.

Biden and his allies would have to use all of their political capital to ensure it's a near universal first ballot affair for the chosen ticket.   If it becomes a floor fight - it's going to be hard to bring every faction together to ensure GOTV.   
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murphstahoe

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Re: The “Debate” 6/27/2024
« Reply #68 on: June 28, 2024, 10:20:14 AM »
Quote from: alum74 on June 28, 2024, 10:13:29 AM
It's not the possibility of a replacement that worries me.  It's the logistics of making it and then having some people walk away butthurt.

Biden and his allies would have to use all of their political capital to ensure it's a near universal first ballot affair for the chosen ticket.   If it becomes a floor fight - it's going to be hard to bring every faction together to ensure GOTV.

should have been a primary. Sigh.

Custard says "feels like the MSM finally got the green light on this". I think they were in denial, hoping he'd squeak by.
Now they are pretty sure he'll get his ass handed to him. That's good for nobody.
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illiniray

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Re: The “Debate” 6/27/2024
« Reply #69 on: June 28, 2024, 10:27:54 AM »
I think I figured out why some people think Trump won, as opposed to Biden losing. It's the WWE effect. The whole self promoting, loud mouth, obnoxious braggart act is right out of professional wrestling.

 In the minds of Trump and his minions, a debate is a verbal brawl, an exchange of insults, candidates shouting and shaking fingers at one another. What Trump tries to do is smackdown his opponents.

During the 2016 Republican primaries, his crude, mannerless behavior completely flummoxed his Republican opponents. He even left Jeb squirming and stammering. I don't think they were prepared for such uncouth conduct.

Biden soundly defeated him twice just by remaining cheerful, sticking to policy, and talking directly to the audience.

It would be interesting to see what someone with a good command of facts could do, skillfully calling out his lies. How would Trump react?

« Last Edit: June 28, 2024, 10:31:05 AM by illiniray »
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alum74

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Re: The “Debate” 6/27/2024
« Reply #70 on: June 28, 2024, 10:28:31 AM »
Quote from: murphstahoe on June 28, 2024, 10:20:14 AM
should have been a primary. Sigh.

Custard says "feels like the MSM finally got the green light on this". I think they were in denial, hoping he'd squeak by.
Now they are pretty sure he'll get his ass handed to him. That's good for nobody.

I'm not that interested in what the MSM says.  They're in a feeding frenzy mode.  Let's wait 2-3 weeks to see what the polling says. 

I still remember lots of Democratic bedwetting after the first Obama-Romney presidential debate.   
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murphstahoe

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Re: The “Debate” 6/27/2024
« Reply #71 on: June 28, 2024, 10:39:33 AM »
Quote from: alum74 on June 28, 2024, 10:28:31 AM
I'm not that interested in what the MSM says.  They're in a feeding frenzy mode.  Let's wait 2-3 weeks to see what the polling says. 

I still remember lots of Democratic bedwetting after the first Obama-Romney presidential debate.

I wasn't bedwetting but I was pretty pissed, because Obama's performance in that debate was so against character, completely unexpected from one of the best orators the country has ever seen, a man with excellent command of facts who rigorously prepares. I felt that night they sort of decided to mail it in, not cause a stink, Obama was so good on the trail and had such monster fundraising that all they had to do was play not to lose. Romney was prepared to exploit that. Obama came back to the second debate with a revised strategy and righted the ship.

This one - "I hope Biden doesn't look like my Dad with Parkinson's". Well, he did. My Dad has some better days and some worse days. His best days we can tell a few funny stories, but we still have to hide the password to the financial accounts.
Even best case Biden can't fix that mess.
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Judge Judy

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Re: The “Debate” 6/27/2024
« Reply #72 on: June 28, 2024, 11:12:40 AM »
Quote from: illiniray on June 28, 2024, 10:27:54 AM
I think I figured out why some people think Trump won, as opposed to Biden losing. It's the WWE effect. The whole self promoting, loud mouth, obnoxious braggart act is right out of professional wrestling.

 In the minds of Trump and his minions, a debate is a verbal brawl, an exchange of insults, candidates shouting and shaking fingers at one another. What Trump tries to do is smackdown his opponents.

During the 2016 Republican primaries, his crude, mannerless behavior completely flummoxed his Republican opponents. He even left Jeb squirming and stammering. I don't think they were prepared for such uncouth conduct.

Biden soundly defeated him twice just by remaining cheerful, sticking to policy, and talking directly to the audience.

It would be interesting to see what someone with a good command of facts could do, skillfully calling out his lies. How would Trump react?

Weird because Biden was the first one to use personal insults and turn it into a name-calling match…

Not sure what you watched but Biden was BAD!!!!! And that’s not an indictment of Trump, just that Biden ain’t gonna be alive in 4 1/2 years from now. If he is, his mind is GONE.
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murphstahoe

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Re: The “Debate” 6/27/2024
« Reply #73 on: June 28, 2024, 11:25:54 AM »
Quote from: Judge Judy on June 28, 2024, 11:12:40 AM
Weird because Biden was the first one to use personal insults and turn it into a name-calling match…

Not sure what you watched but Biden was BAD!!!!! And that’s not an indictment of Trump, just that Biden ain’t gonna be alive in 4 1/2 years from now. If he is, his mind is GONE.

all the more reason to dismantle the ticket - Biden could probably beat Kamala Harris 1-1 so... if this becomes a proxy Trump/Harris race, it's way over.

Close races are about turnout. That's the problem here.

Trump supporters - will turn out
Biden haters - will turn out
Trump haters - will turn out
Biden supporters - diminishing group that won't turn out.
Checkmate.
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murphstahoe

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Re: The “Debate” 6/27/2024
« Reply #74 on: June 28, 2024, 11:27:32 AM »
Quote from: Judge Judy on June 28, 2024, 11:12:40 AM
Weird because Biden was the first one to use personal insults and turn it into a name-calling match…

Not sure what you watched but Biden was BAD!!!!! And that’s not an indictment of Trump, just that Biden ain’t gonna be alive in 4 1/2 years from now. If he is, his mind is GONE.

One of my buddies put it this way - "People who vote for Trump know what they are voting for. People who would be inclined to vote for Biden are voting for a black box, they have no idea what they are voting for". Not a good recipe.

Man's gotta know his limitations.
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