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do illinois loyalty "insiders" actually have info

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spark mandrill

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Re: do illinois loyalty "insiders" actually have info
« Reply #810 on: June 21, 2023, 10:59:07 AM »
I'll be surprised if TSJ is a pre-season all American.  Edey's back, Tyler Kolek is back, Abmas is back, Bacot is back. 
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Lkdog

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Re: do illinois loyalty "insiders" actually have info
« Reply #811 on: June 21, 2023, 11:01:30 AM »
Quote from: Tempo34 on June 21, 2023, 10:04:47 AM
I have a feeling that most of the “fire him” heat is coming from places like here, which don’t matter.

Can someone more connected than I am give us a general pulse of the boosters? Is Underwood actually feeling real heat? I’d be a bit surprised if that’s the case. Maybe someone can shed some light on this.

I think that he is certainly feeling under pressure to perform better in tourney. As much as this board despises Loyalty- I think it is a reasonable snapshot of the fanbase and booster spectrum, good and bad, and he is feeling some heat.
Last season was really a miserable basketball product despite making the NCAA, and his behavior on the sidelines was a total embarrassment.
The off season roster building was decent and the return of TSJ and Hawkins was a real plus.
Missing on any legit PG which by Underwood's own plan was their number one priority was a very public failure and the boosters were heavily marketed to put together the NIL package.
These rich guys expect results when they put their money down.
I do think UW believes the fanbase and boosters are not appreciative that he has brought the program back to at least a competitive respectable level.
I don't think he is a guy that takes criticism well. He has a lot of Fran redass in him.

« Last Edit: June 21, 2023, 11:20:16 AM by Lkdog »
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spark mandrill

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Re: do illinois loyalty "insiders" actually have info
« Reply #812 on: June 21, 2023, 11:12:27 AM »
It's hard to know whether he takes valid criticism well, because the people wanting to fire him despite his record here's criticisms are mostly wild stretches or short-sighted thinking.  They very well may win out; it doesn't make the constant criticism of a guy who has objectively done a pretty damn good job here any more reasonable though.  If they do win out they better be right; it'll be a bummer if we slide back into the Weber/Groce days because we jumped the gun and quickly fired the guy who finally brought us back.  And I think that's easily as likely, probably more likely, than hiring a replacement whose results are notably better.  It took us three tries to get back to being a consistent tournament team, and we were selling a very different product at the beginning of that than we had to sell to Underwood.

He seemed to take the blame for the Loyola loss reasonably well - easily the moment of his tenure most worthy of criticism.

He has surely discovered that our rabid fanbase cuts both ways; it's awesome that in a tourney with UCLA and Texas etc. we are easily the most represented.  It sucks that we so quickly turn on our own.
« Last Edit: June 21, 2023, 11:15:36 AM by spark mandrill »
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Lkdog

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Re: do illinois loyalty "insiders" actually have info
« Reply #813 on: June 21, 2023, 11:27:24 AM »
Quote from: spark mandrill on June 21, 2023, 11:12:27 AM
It's hard to know whether he takes valid criticism well, because the people wanting to fire him despite his record here's criticisms are mostly wild stretches or short-sighted thinking.  They very well may win out; it doesn't make the constant criticism of a guy who has objectively done a pretty damn good job here any more reasonable though.  If they do win out they better be right; it'll be a bummer if we slide back into the Weber/Groce days because we jumped the gun and quickly fired the guy who finally brought us back.  And I think that's easily as likely, probably more likely, than hiring a replacement whose results are notably better.  It took us three tries to get back to being a consistent tournament team, and we were selling a very different product at the beginning of that than we had to sell to Underwood.

He seemed to take the blame for the Loyola loss reasonably well - easily the moment of his tenure most worthy of criticism.

He has surely discovered that our rabid fanbase cuts both ways; it's awesome that in a tourney with UCLA and Texas etc. we are easily the most represented.  It sucks that we so quickly turn on our own.

I think it is similar to most fanbases. I think this past year really hurt the perception of his competence.
He needs to bounce back with a prepared motivated team this year.
I do think we will be better. How much depends on a lot of intangibles and team culture issues which arguably were his calling card.
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spark mandrill

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Re: do illinois loyalty "insiders" actually have info
« Reply #814 on: June 21, 2023, 11:33:27 AM »
The huge, huge majority of fanbases would laugh at the notion of firing somebody with the results relative to what he inherited that Underwood has.  It wouldn't even be a discussion whether firing someone who took over a program that had made 3 tournaments in 10 years and then had 4 tourney teams in his first 6 years was reasonable in 90% of programs.  As I mentioned earlier, only 9 programs (6, I think I said 7 earlier, from high major programs) have made more consecutive tournaments than us right now.  Our results rank highly nationally, no doubt, just haven't had success in the single elimination tournament.

The Kansas' and Kentuckys and UNC's of the world probably would, but most other schools would not.  Worth noting that Kentucky and UNC have both missed tournaments since we did though.
« Last Edit: June 21, 2023, 11:39:55 AM by spark mandrill »
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Lkdog

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Re: do illinois loyalty "insiders" actually have info
« Reply #815 on: June 21, 2023, 11:49:26 AM »
Quote from: spark mandrill on June 21, 2023, 11:33:27 AM
The huge, huge majority of fanbases would laugh at the notion of firing somebody with the results relative to what he inherited that Underwood has.  It wouldn't even be a discussion whether firing someone who took over a program that had made 3 tournaments in 10 years and then had 4 tourney teams in his first 6 years was reasonable in 90% of programs.  As I mentioned earlier, only 9 programs (6, I think I said 7 earlier, from high major programs) have made more consecutive tournaments than us right now.  Our results rank highly nationally, no doubt, just haven't had success in the single elimination tournament.

The Kansas' and Kentuckys and UNC's of the world probably would, but most other schools would not.  Worth noting that Kentucky and UNC have both missed tournaments since we did though.

I think it is very real possibility that he and Illinois will mutually part ways if he has another first round loss. And I do not think anyone would laugh or really even notice it.
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spark mandrill

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Re: do illinois loyalty "insiders" actually have info
« Reply #816 on: June 21, 2023, 12:34:03 PM »
If so, I think there's probably about a 5% chance we get someone who is obviously better right away, and about a 30-35% chance we get someone who eventually improves on Underwood's results.

It's why I think it'd be an impressively silly and short-sighted move to push him out.

If making the tournament every year was easy, all the best coaches and programs would do it.  They do not.

I'm actually curious - would you feel better about Underwood if he'd made the S16 with the Ayo team and then missed the next two tournaments?
« Last Edit: June 21, 2023, 12:37:08 PM by spark mandrill »
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ILLINICHIEF

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Re: do illinois loyalty "insiders" actually have info
« Reply #817 on: June 21, 2023, 12:52:11 PM »
Quote from: spark mandrill on June 21, 2023, 10:59:07 AM
I'll be surprised if TSJ is a pre-season all American.  Edey's back, Tyler Kolek is back, Abmas is back, Bacot is back.

Fair enough but I did state potential?
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spark mandrill

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Re: do illinois loyalty "insiders" actually have info
« Reply #818 on: June 21, 2023, 12:53:17 PM »
You said he was, and I quote, "easily a pre-season All American".
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Lkdog

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Re: do illinois loyalty "insiders" actually have info
« Reply #819 on: June 21, 2023, 01:17:26 PM »
Quote from: ILLINICHIEF on June 21, 2023, 10:48:31 AM
Weak draft = Weak All American class. TSJ is easily a pre-season All American. Hawk is a stretch for sure....but talent (projected) will also easily make people think we are a failure if no Sweet 16 this year.

I don't think anyone has us picked as a 4 seed or expects a S16 team right now.
The angst among the fanbase and media and boosters is because we are a longshot to be really good without a legit PG and we are wasting the fortuitous return of two veteran starters.
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spark mandrill

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Re: do illinois loyalty "insiders" actually have info
« Reply #820 on: June 21, 2023, 01:44:38 PM »
By no means do I think a top-4 seed or S16 is out of the question with the talent we have.  By talent we're closer to a top-15 team than a not-in-the-tournament team IMO.

Lunardi currently has us as a 5 seed.

I definitely don't think we're a longshot to be very good.  We may not, could easily fall apart like it did last year, but I think it's more likely we're a top-4 seed than not in the tournament.
« Last Edit: June 21, 2023, 01:50:29 PM by spark mandrill »
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Lkdog

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Re: do illinois loyalty "insiders" actually have info
« Reply #821 on: June 21, 2023, 02:09:02 PM »
Quote from: spark mandrill on June 21, 2023, 12:34:03 PM
If so, I think there's probably about a 5% chance we get someone who is obviously better right away, and about a 30-35% chance we get someone who eventually improves on Underwood's results.

It's why I think it'd be an impressively silly and short-sighted move to push him out.

If making the tournament every year was easy, all the best coaches and programs would do it.  They do not.

I'm actually curious - would you feel better about Underwood if he'd made the S16 with the Ayo team and then missed the next two tournaments?

Not really. Missing two years in a row after Ayo and I think he would likely already be gone.

Reality is he is 4-7 in the NCAA's and never has won two games in a row. I realize the tourney has some amount of luck and matchup element, but when you have a sample size of 7 and he can't find a way to win he may just not be a guy that can do it.
He will get another shot this year and if he wins first round another year is my guess.
Loses first round this year and he is gone and it will not even be a story. People will expect it.
We move on.
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Lkdog

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Re: do illinois loyalty "insiders" actually have info
« Reply #822 on: June 21, 2023, 02:14:14 PM »
Quote from: spark mandrill on June 21, 2023, 01:44:38 PM
By no means do I think a top-4 seed or S16 is out of the question with the talent we have.  By talent we're closer to a top-15 team than a not-in-the-tournament team IMO.

Lunardi currently has us as a 5 seed.

I definitely don't think we're a longshot to be very good.  We may not, could easily fall apart like it did last year, but I think it's more likely we're a top-4 seed than not in the tournament.

They will make the tourney. If they are a Top 16 team at end of year they will either have added a legit PG this summer, or somebody has a huge breakout year (Hawkins,Dainja,Rodgers, DGL). We are 36 in Torvik as we speak.
That is about right IMO. We should trend higher if staff can get them playing together.
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spark mandrill

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Re: do illinois loyalty "insiders" actually have info
« Reply #823 on: June 21, 2023, 02:23:32 PM »
Quote from: Lkdog on June 21, 2023, 02:09:02 PM
Not really. Missing two years in a row after Ayo and I think he would likely already be gone.

Reality is he is 4-7 in the NCAA's and never has won two games in a row. I realize the tourney has some amount of luck and matchup element, but when you have a sample size of 7 and he can't find a way to win he may just not be a guy that can do it.
He will get another shot this year and if he wins first round another year is my guess.
Loses first round this year and he is gone and it will not even be a story. People will expect it.
We move on.

3 of those 7 came at Stephen F Austin.  Would be pretty hard to hold "only won one game as a 12 seed, and one game as a 14 seed" against him IMO.  He also had a pretty darn good team here year 3 that was playing great basketball before the tournament got canceled.  It's an exceedingly tiny sample size, essentially three games out of the ~330 D1 games he's coached, that we're criticizing him for.  And he was an underdog in two of them.  I don't really buy the notion of "he can't do it".  It's mostly a crapshoot - both losing in the tournament AND winning in the tournament.   Injuries, matchups, form, seeding, etc. all play into it.  Obviously building talented rosters plays into it too (although not as much as fans tend to attribute to that), but Underwood's done that pretty darn well.

Yes, if he loses in the first round he'll probably be gone.  Just hope this time it isn't another 5+ years before we make it back, which I think is far, far more likely than the people who want him gone are acting like it is.
« Last Edit: June 21, 2023, 02:30:47 PM by spark mandrill »
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spark mandrill

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Re: do illinois loyalty "insiders" actually have info
« Reply #824 on: June 21, 2023, 02:25:30 PM »
Quote from: Lkdog on June 21, 2023, 02:14:14 PM
They will make the tourney. If they are a Top 16 team at end of year they will either have added a legit PG this summer, or somebody has a huge breakout year (Hawkins,Dainja,Rodgers, DGL). We are 36 in Torvik as we speak.
That is about right IMO. We should trend higher if staff can get them playing together.

I don't trust Lunardi much, but he obviously disagrees with you - a 5 seed is a top-20 team.  The notion that it'd be some huge surprise if we were a 4 seed just isn't true.  No one outside of the Hulka Sucks crowd will be surprised if a team with as much talent as we'll have finishes as a top-16 team in seeding.
« Last Edit: June 21, 2023, 02:27:07 PM by spark mandrill »
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