I have a feeling they have played themselves down to an 11 and First Four.
I would be far more worried about this if the team didn't still have those early wins in its back pocket. Also, the recent runs by Ohio St. and Penn St. might make those losses look better. However, sometimes the selection committee plays stupid games as to how much the conference tournaments matter.
I'll just go with the 9 at Bracket Matrix. The team would then play either Fla. Atlantic and lose horribly or Arkansas. (I suspect Memphis might rise from an 8 if the committee pays attention to today's Nichi-ing of Houston.) If this team loses to dogshit Arkansas, then I join the "Fire Underwear" brigade.