https://x.com/intentionally/status/1854021021617066431?s=46
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I think the lesson really is that it's bad to be the incumbent party. There's pretty much always some first world problem to bitch about. Eggs are expensive but it's a hell of a lot better than living in Ukraine or Gaza, or pretty much anywhere in the world.
During Carter's tenure, there was rampant inflation, so he was tossed, just by gravity that had to get better, Reagan gets re-elected and Bush I gets in. The pendulum swings so Bush I loses re-election. Clinton gets the tailwind of some real growth in the tech sector, gets re-elected, but the start of the dot com bubble dooms Gore. Bush II gets by on patriotism post 9/11, but the financial crisis dooms McCain. Obama gets the tailwind of the gravity fixing that and gets re-elected, but by 2016 things are sort of floating along at best so Trump comes in. Trump runs into COVID - not his fault, and no matter what he did people were gonna be unhappy, so he loses. The resultant inflation dooms Biden's administration so Harris is a dead duck.
Trump can't run for re-election - I doubt that even with control of house/senate/supreme court he can change that and the guy will be 82. But Vance or whomever could have a chance because while prices won't go *down*, inflation is down and by 2028 people will be feeling "better" about the new price levels just through inertia.
We'll see. It really is the economy stupid. But don't pretend the President has a lot to do with that.