Unsure how I saw this without The Twitter....
https://impactresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/IMPACT-RESEARCH-2022-POST-ELECTION-TAKEAWAYS-FINAL80.pdfRe: How Democrats Prevented a Red Wave
By all major political indicators, 2022 should have delivered the type of shellacking that
the president’s party typically endures in midterm elections: Over 70% of voters
believed the country was on the wrong track, 76% rated the economy negatively, and
President Biden’s approval rating of 43% has historically resulted in a loss of about 40
House seats.1 Yet, despite these strong headwinds, Democrats and President Biden
bucked history by holding the Senate and only narrowly losing the House of
Representatives. So how did they do it? Below are some takeaways from post-election
survey data that help explain how Democrats avoided a red wave.
Democrats won by winning over Independents, not by turning out their
base.
Democrats were able to make this election a choice due to abortion and
threats to democracy being as important to voters as inflation and the
economy
Late deciders did not heavily break towards Republicans
The passage of the Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS Act allowed
Democrats to cut into the GOP advantage on the economy and reduce
frustration over a lack of legislative accomplishments.
Democrats overperformed because voters disliked Republican candidates
more, not because voters liked Democrats more than we thought.