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WTF happened to the WTF happened to the WTF happened with Trump today thread?

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Custard

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Re: WTF happened to the WTF happened to the WTF happened with Trump today thread?
« Reply #1950 on: September 09, 2024, 08:45:28 AM »
Quote from: Tempo34 on September 09, 2024, 03:42:32 AM
I wouldn’t say it’s the only predictor, but it’s almost certainly the best predictor.

Grit, home environment, and growing up Asian are the best predictors, according to just about everything I’ve ever seen.

Money correlates, but not as strongly. If I had a dime for every well-to-do family I have known who raised their kids as worthless brats, I’d be well-to-do.
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Reacher

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Re: WTF happened to the WTF happened to the WTF happened with Trump today thread?
« Reply #1951 on: September 09, 2024, 09:04:55 AM »
Well-to-do families tend to produce well-to-do adults.
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murphstahoe

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Re: WTF happened to the WTF happened to the WTF happened with Trump today thread?
« Reply #1952 on: September 09, 2024, 09:17:04 AM »
Quote from: Tempo34 on September 09, 2024, 03:42:32 AM
I wouldn’t say it’s the only predictor, but it’s almost certainly the best predictor.

It's the only predictor.

It's not certain that you'll succeed if your parents have money. It's not certain you'll fail if they don't. But there is a correlation. The same correlation appears if you don't have a 2 parent household. Tom Brady has multiple kids from 2 different women, neither of which he is still married to. Are those kids doomed? No. Because Tom, Giselle, and Brigette have a ton of money. The Georgia shooter was in a nuclear family that was poor.

Those are anecdotes. But if you run a data set on nuclear families, you'll see a correlation, but the correlation is stronger with money, and if you factor out money, the nuclear family thesis falls apart.

"You honestly think hard work creates wealth? The only thing that creates wealth is wealth. And we have it, you don't."
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murphstahoe

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Re: WTF happened to the WTF happened to the WTF happened with Trump today thread?
« Reply #1953 on: September 09, 2024, 09:18:46 AM »
Quote from: Custard on September 09, 2024, 08:45:28 AM
Grit, home environment, and growing up Asian are the best predictors, according to just about everything I’ve ever seen.

Money correlates, but not as strongly. If I had a dime for every well-to-do family I have known who raised their kids as worthless brats, I’d be well-to-do.

I have an offer for you. For every well to do family whose kids have failed, I give you a dime. For every poor family whose kids have failed, you give me a dime.

I await your response.
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Reacher

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Re: WTF happened to the WTF happened to the WTF happened with Trump today thread?
« Reply #1954 on: September 09, 2024, 09:50:42 AM »
Quote from: murphstahoe on September 09, 2024, 09:17:04 AM
It's the only predictor.

So no one from a lowerclass/poor household has ever lifted themselves out of poverty?
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Reacher

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Re: WTF happened to the WTF happened to the WTF happened with Trump today thread?
« Reply #1955 on: September 09, 2024, 09:51:55 AM »
Quote from: murphstahoe on September 09, 2024, 09:18:46 AM
I have an offer for you. For every well to do family whose kids have failed, I give you a dime. For every poor family whose kids have failed, you give me a dime.

I await your response.

Agreed. You’ll come out much better, but to say “it’s the ONLY predictor” isn’t true. Is it accurate more often than not? Absolutely.
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murphstahoe

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Re: WTF happened to the WTF happened to the WTF happened with Trump today thread?
« Reply #1956 on: September 09, 2024, 09:59:33 AM »
Quote from: Tempo34 on September 09, 2024, 09:51:55 AM
Agreed. You’ll come out much better, but to say “it’s the ONLY predictor” isn’t true. Is it accurate more often than not? Absolutely.

Is it accurate more often than not? Absolutely.

You just defined "predictor"

When you picked the wrong Adam and didn't cash out major bucks, you made a prediction. Perhaps 9 times out of 10 you would have been right - so you predicted correctly but the variance got you
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Re: WTF happened to the WTF happened to the WTF happened with Trump today thread?
« Reply #1957 on: September 09, 2024, 10:20:46 AM »
Key word is “only.” Meaning no variance. There is some variance.
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murphstahoe

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Re: WTF happened to the WTF happened to the WTF happened with Trump today thread?
« Reply #1958 on: September 09, 2024, 11:15:14 AM »
Quote from: Tempo34 on September 09, 2024, 10:20:46 AM
Key word is “only.” Meaning no variance. There is some variance.

A predictor has variance.

We've used the word "correlated" here, but that's not the right metric. Success might be correlated with a nuclear family when you just look at people and outcomes, but that doesn't mean that the nuclear family *caused* that outcome, any more than Asian parents. And since this is a "predictor" and not a "certainty" - it's not really that it *caused* it but more so *influenced* it.

The nuclear family hypothesis looks good because of the correlation - but it's not the nuclear family itself - it's that nuclear families are a predictor of financial stability - and the financial stability is the real causal predictor. If you take poor nuclear families, you'll get worse outcomes. If you take rich non-nuclear families, you'll get better outcomes.

I mean sure, there are other predictors. Downs Syndrome is a predictor that your outcome will be lower on the scale. But money swamps it all.
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Judge Judy

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Re: WTF happened to the WTF happened to the WTF happened with Trump today thread?
« Reply #1959 on: September 10, 2024, 07:28:34 PM »
Quote from: Jobu on September 06, 2024, 03:44:43 PM
Hmmm. Not sure I see it this way. I see the demand for childcare as both parents feeling the need to work. I'm not taking single mothers into account. Maybe I should be. And I'm speaking for my generation, which isn't necessarily in scope here.

Anyway, I'm an Xer. Me and my sister had to figure a lot of shit out on our own. Our parents were working. We actually got left alone to manage the house when I was 7 and she was 5. Mom taught me how to boil water to make mac and cheese and hotdogs for lunch if we wanted something hot. Otherwise, it was sandwiches. Didnt matter to them, as long as we figured it out. I don't know how many times I burned my hands on a hot pot because I wasn't being careful. I had to learn quickly to figure shit out. And, I also don't know how many times they came home and found something wrong that they had to deal with. We were doing our best, but we were kids. Mom and Dad got home and wanted to relax for a bit, and didn't want to have to deal with anything. So I learned real fast to have the house clean and have any kind of issues tidied up. Basically, I had to learn how to be a grown up at age 7 or 8. That's fucking hard.

It's hard to grow up that way. It's like telling a kindergartner to figure out how to solve an algebra equation. They're just gonna fuck it up. Fortunately, my fuck ups when we were growing up weren't life threatening. My parents did their best with what they had, and what they felt was right. In the meantime, they raised a couple of fucked up kids. One of whom is dead.

My parents have both passed on. Yeah, they did their best, but I always swore that I would do so much better by my children. And I have. They both have awesome jobs, and I'm so fucking proud of them. At the end of the day, that's all that matters to me. Nothing else.

Sorry, that got long. But I just felt like typing it all out. If it was a waste of your time, I apologize.

Go Illini

Thanks for sharing.
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Judge Judy

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Re: WTF happened to the WTF happened to the WTF happened with Trump today thread?
« Reply #1960 on: September 10, 2024, 07:29:16 PM »
Quote from: Custard on September 06, 2024, 03:15:20 PM
Whatever you do, don’t broach the subject of the systematic destruction of the family that’s necessitated the massive demand (and resultant cost increase) of childcare. Which disproportionately affects minorities on a massive scale.

Great post!
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Re: WTF happened to the WTF happened to the WTF happened with Trump today thread?
« Reply #1961 on: September 11, 2024, 10:45:58 AM »
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Re: WTF happened to the WTF happened to the WTF happened with Trump today thread?
« Reply #1962 on: September 11, 2024, 10:51:21 AM »
Quote from: Jobu on September 06, 2024, 03:44:43 PM
Hmmm. Not sure I see it this way. I see the demand for childcare as both parents feeling the need to work. I'm not taking single mothers into account. Maybe I should be. And I'm speaking for my generation, which isn't necessarily in scope here.

Anyway, I'm an Xer. Me and my sister had to figure a lot of shit out on our own. Our parents were working. We actually got left alone to manage the house when I was 7 and she was 5. Mom taught me how to boil water to make mac and cheese and hotdogs for lunch if we wanted something hot. Otherwise, it was sandwiches. Didnt matter to them, as long as we figured it out. I don't know how many times I burned my hands on a hot pot because I wasn't being careful. I had to learn quickly to figure shit out. And, I also don't know how many times they came home and found something wrong that they had to deal with. We were doing our best, but we were kids. Mom and Dad got home and wanted to relax for a bit, and didn't want to have to deal with anything. So I learned real fast to have the house clean and have any kind of issues tidied up. Basically, I had to learn how to be a grown up at age 7 or 8. That's fucking hard.

It's hard to grow up that way. It's like telling a kindergartner to figure out how to solve an algebra equation. They're just gonna fuck it up. Fortunately, my fuck ups when we were growing up weren't life threatening. My parents did their best with what they had, and what they felt was right. In the meantime, they raised a couple of fucked up kids. One of whom is dead.

My parents have both passed on. Yeah, they did their best, but I always swore that I would do so much better by my children. And I have. They both have awesome jobs, and I'm so fucking proud of them. At the end of the day, that's all that matters to me. Nothing else.

Sorry, that got long. But I just felt like typing it all out. If it was a waste of your time, I apologize.

Go Illini

That is tough. I guess looking back I was fairly independent as a kid as well, but not to that extreme. My sister was 4 years older than me so always felt like I had at least a half an adult around. My parents were divorced when i was 10. Wasn’t always easy.

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Jobu

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Re: WTF happened to the WTF happened to the WTF happened with Trump today thread?
« Reply #1963 on: September 11, 2024, 11:03:25 AM »
Quote from: Tempo34 on September 11, 2024, 10:51:21 AM
That is tough. I guess looking back I was fairly independent as a kid as well, but not to that extreme. My sister was 4 years older than me so always felt like I had at least a half an adult around. My parents were divorced when i was 10. Wasn’t always easy.

Yeah, it definitely wasn't easy. There were a lot of times where I felt lost. I just wanted to be able to handle everything, and to this day, I'm a people pleaser and always feel the need to fix things. Because I was never able to fix the things I needed to when I was a kid.

I hold a lot of guilt for what happened to my sister. It wasn't fair to me how I needed to look after her all the time, and I feel like I didn't do well enough. She got on a bad path, and I couldn't fix it, once again. She had some serious issues that, at the time, were very stigmatized and my parents were not engaged enough to help her. And I didn't know what to do, other than try to protect her. I feel like I failed at that. It's hard.

I miss her every day.
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Judge Judy

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Re: WTF happened to the WTF happened to the WTF happened with Trump today thread?
« Reply #1964 on: September 11, 2024, 12:02:53 PM »
Quote from: Jobu on September 11, 2024, 11:03:25 AM
Yeah, it definitely wasn't easy. There were a lot of times where I felt lost. I just wanted to be able to handle everything, and to this day, I'm a people pleaser and always feel the need to fix things. Because I was never able to fix the things I needed to when I was a kid.

I hold a lot of guilt for what happened to my sister. It wasn't fair to me how I needed to look after her all the time, and I feel like I didn't do well enough. She got on a bad path, and I couldn't fix it, once again. She had some serious issues that, at the time, were very stigmatized and my parents were not engaged enough to help her. And I didn't know what to do, other than try to protect her. I feel like I failed at that. It's hard.

I miss her every day.

Thanks for sharing. I hope you heal and find some peace. It’s not your fault. I’ll say a prayer for you.
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