Janan Ganesh with a good analysis
Whether in the United States, Germany, France, Australia, the United Kingdom, Italy, or elsewhere, nearly every single leader has been remarkably unpopular
It doesn’t matter if the leaders are conservative or liberal, young or old, successful or terrible. Their unpopularity is durable
As such, nearly every election is a change election
What the west has is a followership problem. Voters reject policies — however objectively necessary — that cost them anything. One result is huge levels of government debt, which investors are now demanding higher yields to finance. Another is the flaying alive of almost any leader who tries to fix this or almost anything else. In this decade alone, policies from which heads of government never really recovered include, in France, an increase in the state pension age to all of 64 and, in Britain, a cut to winter fuel subsidies amounting to £1.4bn annually. It isn’t a Greece-style adjustment that people are rebelling against, but modest and apologetic savings.
The quickest, surest way to save Merz’s chancellorship is to give up the reforms to healthcare, pensions and the like. It would also be unconscionable. Likewise, Andy Burnham’s best chance of winning the next UK election is to attempt no fiscal tightening, which would be negligent of him. These are so often the choices: self-immolation or dereliction. The idea of a third path, in which leaders pursue reform but explain it better — “bring people on board” — is podcast-level hogwash. Outside of crises, when fear makes them pliable, voters are determinedly off board.