NCAA Tournament brackets

Lkdog

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Re: NCAA Tournament brackets

« Reply #750 on: March 31, 2021, 11:30:20 PM »

Quote from: fucking on March 31, 2021, 10:25:09 PM

I thought they were extremely lucky, and that that luck induced some people to believe they were good.

They were pretty good. They made an EE without their leading scorer. Not too bad.
They won some disputed piece of the BT title in what was a historically heralded league until the NCAAs exposed it.
We would be ecstatic with having a team be that lucky as you know and probably rename the court after Hulka.

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Murph’s Dog

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Re: NCAA Tournament brackets

« Reply #751 on: April 01, 2021, 12:54:47 AM »

How does a 1 seed “get lucky?”

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fucking

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Re: NCAA Tournament brackets

« Reply #752 on: April 01, 2021, 01:00:18 AM »

KenPom has a luck metric for a reason.

Last season, Wisconsin won a B1G title. This year, the same team finished sixth. Analysts say the Badgers schedule, especially in the back half of the conference season, helped them.

Michigan skipped road games at Northwestern and Penn State.

That was lucky. After all, Ohio State & Maryland both lost at Northwestern. Penn State won five games against teams that received at-large bids to the NCAA Tournament.

But Michigan also lost at Minnesota. It was unlucky that they caught the Gophers on a good night, and before key MN players were lost to injury.

When you look at opponents stats in games played against the Wolverines as compared to games played against all other teams, you might find some anomalies. Did they shoot worse because they were having a bad night, or because of great defense? It's hard to prove either way.

Michigan never looked like a dominant team to me. That's my subjective opinion. I think they got lucky, a lot.

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Murph’s Dog

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Re: NCAA Tournament brackets

« Reply #753 on: April 01, 2021, 01:00:49 AM »

Ok

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Murph’s Dog

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Re: NCAA Tournament brackets

« Reply #754 on: April 01, 2021, 01:02:13 AM »

I think you have to get awful “lucky” to win the most competitive conference in the country, and miss making the Final Four by a 3 point shot. Takes quite a bit of “luck” to achieve that.

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fucking

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Re: NCAA Tournament brackets

« Reply #755 on: April 01, 2021, 01:03:00 AM »

Obviously the B1G was the best conference, right?

That was an awesomely Tempo-ish question, BTW.

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Lkdog

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Re: NCAA Tournament brackets

« Reply #756 on: April 01, 2021, 02:05:31 AM »

Quote from: fucking on April 01, 2021, 01:00:18 AM

KenPom has a luck metric for a reason.

Last season, Wisconsin won a B1G title. This year, the same team finished sixth. Analysts say the Badgers schedule, especially in the back half of the conference season, helped them.

Michigan skipped road games at Northwestern and Penn State.

That was lucky. After all, Ohio State & Maryland both lost at Northwestern. Penn State won five games against teams that received at-large bids to the NCAA Tournament.

But Michigan also lost at Minnesota. It was unlucky that they caught the Gophers on a good night, and before key MN players were lost to injury.

When you look at opponents stats in games played against the Wolverines as compared to games played against all other teams, you might find some anomalies. Did they shoot worse because they were having a bad night, or because of great defense? It's hard to prove either way.

Michigan never looked like a dominant team to me. That's my subjective opinion. I think they got lucky, a lot.

I don't think anybody in the BT ever looked dominant. I thought all year the league seemed over rated. A lot of shit ball IMO.
Illinois was slipping toward a 5 seed until they apparently got her ass handed to them by Coach Hulka at Nebraska for fuckign off.
We had a great run after that minus the MSU assault and battery game. Until we fcked the dog vs Loyola doing the fck the dog thing.
There needs to be a Fck The Dog metric. We would have led the league.

Michigan was pretty damn good. They took us lightly up there and we had our best defensive game in last 16 years - minus Ayo which was maybe not a coincidence.
Michigan lost the second MSU game after clinching the BT title and having a letdown.
Minnesota was pretty good at home before the injuries. They beat Iowa also.

They were the most well balanced team in the league with Livers IMO.

As far as the luck thing- KenPom actually had UM ranked lower than us in terms of the luck factor.
Luck – A measure of the deviation between a team’s actual winning percentage and what one would expect from its game-by-game efficiencies. It’s a Dean Oliver invention. Essentially, a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them. Those that do will be viewed as lucky (or unlucky).

We did win 3 OT games and escaped a loss vs Ohio.
UM had one OT game when they were not yet starting Dickinson and people didn't think they were that good. They had no other close wins, but two close losses.

The schedule thing has some merit. You play more road games you certainly can lose more.
As far as Wisconsin- they were mediocre and had easy schedule last year and were mediocre this year aside from their apparent big win vs Loyola. They were 0-8 vs Top 5 teams in BT.

I dunno. I liked UM. Fun to watch.

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Murph’s Dog

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Re: NCAA Tournament brackets

« Reply #757 on: April 01, 2021, 10:37:10 AM »

Quote from: fucking on April 01, 2021, 01:03:00 AM

Obviously the B1G was the best conference, right?

That was an awesomely Tempo-ish question, BTW.

It was the deepest. And you should know better than to draw definitive conclusions from a single-elimination tournament. Especially in a whackadoodle year. Do you think Loyola was clearly better than Illinois? Because it looked that way the day they played.

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Murph’s Dog

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Re: NCAA Tournament brackets

« Reply #758 on: April 01, 2021, 10:39:12 AM »

I dunno, kind of hard to achieve a 1 seed with “luck.” Now if Rob changed the word he used from good to great, I wouldn’t quibble. But clearly, Michigan was “good.”

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Tempo34: “I want dignity and equality of opportunity for all, a higher standard of living for all, and healthcare for all.”

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Judge Judy

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Re: NCAA Tournament brackets

« Reply #759 on: April 01, 2021, 11:48:55 AM »

Quote from: Tempo34 on April 01, 2021, 10:39:12 AM

I dunno, kind of hard to achieve a 1 seed with “luck.” Now if Rob changed the word he used from good to great, I wouldn’t quibble. But clearly, Michigan was “good.”

So using this logic, the same could be said about Illinois this year.

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I didn’t know that. Thanks!

ILLove1997

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Re: NCAA Tournament brackets

« Reply #760 on: April 01, 2021, 12:00:58 PM »

Quote from: Tempo34 on April 01, 2021, 10:37:10 AM

It was the deepest. And you should know better than to draw definitive conclusions from a single-elimination tournament. Especially in a whackadoodle year. Do you think Loyola was clearly better than Illinois? Because it looked that way the day they played.

Good post

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Custard

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Re: NCAA Tournament brackets

« Reply #761 on: April 01, 2021, 12:48:12 PM »

Michigan and IL both were teams that did well in large part due to having the most dominant big men in a league full of teams reliant on big men. Both struggled with well coached small ball teams like OSU.

It turned out that Ayo-less Illinois matched up very well with full strength Michigan. Kofi could handle Dickinson one on one and not have to leave their guards open for three. We exploited them mightily on offense for sure.

Loyola was a terrible matchup for Illinois because our bigs couldn’t handle Krutwig’s skill set and we didn’t even try zone. I think Dickinson would have been better than Kofi against Krutwig because he moves better and can get into passing lanes.

In the end they both lost in the tourney to well coached small ball squads like just about every other B1G team did.

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Lkdog

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Re: NCAA Tournament brackets

« Reply #762 on: April 01, 2021, 02:04:55 PM »

A lot of bullshit about one game samples not being valid. Everybody knows the rules. Get your fcking team ready. The better team does not always win, but that is basketball, or sports.
We were better than UNC in 2005, but the refs called a game that was not favorable to our style. Again, you have to be ready for everything in a tourney.
No excuses. This is why Illinois with Hulka are likely at a disadvantage in that format.

Unfortunately in the NCAA, which is the only thing that fans remember - you get a 40 minute sample of data against your opponent.
FWIW- Gonzaga is supposed to beat UCLA by 12.5- 14.5 points, but only 86/100 times.

Nobody will accuse UCLA of being better if they win, but it could happen. 14/100 isn't impossible.

I don't think anyone thinks MD, Rutgers or Missouri, or MSU is better than Illinois. I don't think anyone thinks Loyola is better than Illinois - but they handed us our ass for that 40 minute sample which we did not prepare for like fcking morons.

UM was good. We were good. Neither was good enough against a decent team if they do not play well in the regular season or in the NCAA. Doesn't mean they were not good teams by the same metrics and results all teams are judged by,

I don't see anyone in the NCAA, except Gonzaga, that can win with their B game against a good team playing well.

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Custard

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Re: NCAA Tournament brackets

« Reply #763 on: April 01, 2021, 03:10:56 PM »

I agree sure wish Gonzaga would have had a little more resistance in getting to championship but if it’s Zags vs Baylor it will have worked out the way it should regardless

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Lkdog

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Re: NCAA Tournament brackets

« Reply #764 on: April 01, 2021, 03:35:59 PM »

Quote from: Custard on April 01, 2021, 03:10:56 PM

I agree sure wish Gonzaga would have had a little more resistance in getting to championship but if it’s Zags vs Baylor it will have worked out the way it should regardless

That is game we want to see at this point. Baylor will need to play very well.

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