WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?

Somewhere in Mn

12706
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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?

« Reply #600 on: August 06, 2020, 03:32:48 PM »

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths

"Remember the question we asked at the beginning: if someone is infected with COVID-19, how likely is it that they will die? The answer to that question is captured by the infection fatality rate, or IFR."

The IFR is the number of deaths from a disease divided by the total number of cases. If 10 people die of the disease, and 500 actually have it, then the IFR is [10 / 500], or 2%.3,4,5,6,7

To work out the IFR, we need two numbers: the total number of cases and the total number of deaths.

"To understand the risks and respond appropriately we would also want to know the mortality risk of COVID-19 – the likelihood that someone who catches the disease will die from it."

If I catch this virus, I surely hope that infection fatality rates are dropping. And if the drop is a result of changes in treatment or appropriate responses, I'm all for it. Ventilators aren't used as they were initially when better outcomes were seen with different therapies.

« Last Edit: August 06, 2020, 04:13:06 PM by Mn »

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Custard

12316
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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?

« Reply #601 on: August 06, 2020, 03:57:09 PM »

Quote from: Miniditka on August 05, 2020, 01:38:54 PM

Quote from: Custard on August 02, 2020, 08:57:54 PM
Quote from: illiniray on August 02, 2020, 06:51:40 PM
Regardless of exactly where or when; it now appears children can catch and spread covid-19. They are not, as our dear leader has said, almost immune.

We have been really lucky this virus for the most part doesn’t hurt our children. I think we’ve known for a long time children can contract and spread the virus. We also know they are largely unaffected by it.

I don’t think we’ve seen anything quite to this level of mass infection of children, but the camp experience as described was essentially a perfect medium for transmission.

If one refers to the accepted definition of immune one could conclude that Trump’s statement was either true, or just partially true.

Had Trump said they are basically incapable of contracting and spreading the virus, I’d have a bigger gripe.
I wonder if Nancy Pelosi had said it, would you have so little a gripe?

I mean, I guess maybe you should, because if someone with half a brain said it, I’d think they were being intentionally misleading.

I challenge you to find a single instance of me saying anything negative about Nancy Pelosi or anything she’s said or done.

Trump does and says enough stupid shit like the Axios interview that warrant actual criticism. I don’t have any problem with him saying “practically immune” when children are affected at such a low rate.

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murphstahoe

8271
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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?

« Reply #602 on: August 06, 2020, 05:45:03 PM »

Quote from: Mn on August 06, 2020, 03:32:48 PM

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths

"Remember the question we asked at the beginning: if someone is infected with COVID-19, how likely is it that they will die? The answer to that question is captured by the infection fatality rate, or IFR."

The IFR is the number of deaths from a disease divided by the total number of cases. If 10 people die of the disease, and 500 actually have it, then the IFR is [10 / 500], or 2%.3,4,5,6,7

To work out the IFR, we need two numbers: the total number of cases and the total number of deaths.

"To understand the risks and respond appropriately we would also want to know the mortality risk of COVID-19 – the likelihood that someone who catches the disease will die from it."

If I catch this virus, I surely hope that infection fatality rates are dropping. And if the drop is a result of changes in treatment or appropriate responses, I'm all for it. Ventilators aren't used as they were initially when better outcomes were seen with different therapies.

Over time - the fatality rate will drop just due to Darwinism - the people more likely to catch the disease and more likely to die from the disease, are naturally the first to get it.

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illiniray

9355
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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?

« Reply #603 on: August 06, 2020, 09:19:53 PM »

Quote from: murphstahoe on August 06, 2020, 05:45:03 PM

Over time - the fatality rate will drop just due to Darwinism - the people more likely to catch the disease and more likely to die from the disease, are naturally the first to get it.

That's just a theory, equal to the theory of creationism.

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illiniray

9355
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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?

« Reply #604 on: August 06, 2020, 09:26:06 PM »

Quote from: Custard on August 02, 2020, 08:57:54 PM

[

Had Trump said they are basically incapable of contracting and spreading the virus, I’d have a bigger gripe.

“A lot of people are saying they don’t transmit, and we’re looking at that, They don’t catch it easily; they don’t bring it home easily. And if they do catch it, they get better fast. We’re looking at that fact ..." -- Donald Trump

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ThePAMan

31768
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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?

« Reply #605 on: August 09, 2020, 09:09:59 AM »

These cats are probably correct in what needs to be done to get this over with...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/07/opinion/coronavirus-lockdown-unemployment-death.html

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ILLove1997

6437
+80/-2019

Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?

« Reply #606 on: August 09, 2020, 11:38:45 AM »

Quote from: ThePAMan on August 09, 2020, 09:09:59 AM

These cats are probably correct in what needs to be done to get this over with...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/07/opinion/coronavirus-lockdown-unemployment-death.html

yeah lets not completely destroy the economy over a virus with a .25 IFR

because way more people in our own country and around the world will suffer if we do that

anyway off to the desert to get away from all the fucking idiots on this planet

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ThePAMan

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?

« Reply #607 on: August 09, 2020, 06:38:05 PM »

Quote from: ILLove1997 on August 09, 2020, 11:38:45 AM

Quote from: ThePAMan on August 09, 2020, 09:09:59 AM
These cats are probably correct in what needs to be done to get this over with...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/07/opinion/coronavirus-lockdown-unemployment-death.html

yeah lets not completely destroy the economy over a virus with a .25 IFR

because way more people in our own country and around the world will suffer if we do that

anyway off to the desert to get away from all the fucking idiots on this planet

Unsurprisingly you missed the point of the OP-ed. Sounds like the Big 5 power conferences are ready to throw in the towel for fall because we half assed the response instead of taking the short term pain to squash this thing. Now we are dragging it, and the accompanying economic pain, out. But hey, people are saving money per the article as the savings rate has jumped!

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Custard

12316
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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?

« Reply #608 on: August 10, 2020, 08:28:48 AM »

I sure didn’t feel like mandatory shelter in place and masks/temp checks at essential businesses for 2+ months was a half-assed response.

Even though they often can, most people aren’t eating indoors at restaurants because outdoor seating has been made available. Workers are wearing masks and touchless QR code menus have been implemented most places. The air is thick with the smell of hand sanitizer and Lysol.

I believe we should continue forward being prudent with masks and sanitizing procedures and gathering size when out in public.

If you’re scared or are a caregiver/have frequent contact with at-risk people, then by all means exercise your right to shelter in place.

Given that many areas have been largely untouched by the ‘rona, I’m not convinced we need another blanket shut down. Most locales have developed data driven thresholds for shutting back down and will undoubtedly do so should those thresholds be met.

I also believe that shutting down again right as many businesses have invested heavily in reopening safely would be a killer blow to places that are already cash strapped and struggling to catch up from the first shutdown.

I wonder how this would have played out if there was a mandatory stay at home order for people over 60 and those with underlying health issue while everyone else carried on relatively normally. Was just looking at some data from Minnesota and 80% of cases are in people 60 and younger. Most of those are asymptomatic, almost all the rest are mild to moderate symptoms.

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Somewhere in Mn

12706
+179/-2614

Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?

« Reply #609 on: August 10, 2020, 09:23:35 AM »

Quote from: Custard on August 10, 2020, 08:28:48 AM

I sure didn’t feel like mandatory shelter in place and masks/temp checks at essential businesses for 2+ months was a half-assed response.

Even though they often can, most people aren’t eating indoors at restaurants because outdoor seating has been made available. Workers are wearing masks and touchless QR code menus have been implemented most places. The air is thick with the smell of hand sanitizer and Lysol.

I believe we should continue forward being prudent with masks and sanitizing procedures and gathering size when out in public.

If you’re scared or are a caregiver/have frequent contact with at-risk people, then by all means exercise your right to shelter in place.

Given that many areas have been largely untouched by the ‘rona, I’m not convinced we need another blanket shut down. Most locales have developed data driven thresholds for shutting back down and will undoubtedly do so should those thresholds be met.

I also believe that shutting down again right as many businesses have invested heavily in reopening safely would be a killer blow to places that are already cash strapped and struggling to catch up from the first shutdown.

I wonder how this would have played out if there was a mandatory stay at home order for people over 60 and those with underlying health issue while everyone else carried on relatively normally. Was just looking at some data from Minnesota and 80% of cases are in people 60 and younger. Most of those are asymptomatic, almost all the rest are mild to moderate symptoms.

Over 1/3 of Mn positive cases are between the age 6-29.
4 deaths in the age group out of over 21,000 cases. None in 6-19.
I don't see a data breakdown on the presence or lack of co-morbidities.
4 is 4 too many, but wasn't the original mortality guesstimate 2.2 million nation wide ?
75% of the 1657 Mn deaths are long term care.

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ThePAMan

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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?

« Reply #610 on: August 10, 2020, 09:35:35 AM »

Half assed in the sense it was left up to the states and some did and some didn't and we now have more going around, depending where you are at. The actions of the idiots at that Georgia school district is an example. If they mandated masks, maybe they are in school today? It really is not that tough. There is a reason the rest of the world right now is wondering WTF is wrong with America, as if electing Trump was not enough.

I'm sure the 55% in that study with lingering effects post getting it are happy to know that only people over 60 are dying. It is a new "virus," if you guys can tell us the long-term effects of getting this, let us know!

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Miniditka

419
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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?

« Reply #611 on: August 10, 2020, 10:22:39 AM »

The conversation that really needs to be had for things like reopening the economy and getting kids in schools, etc., is “How many lives is it worth?” Because that’s really the issue. Obviously some people are going to die, and that just has to be accepted. How many is acceptable though?

If you’re on the “open stuff up” side and you’re uncomfortable having that conversation, then maybe you should honestly reassess which side you should really be on.

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ThePAMan

31768
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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?

« Reply #612 on: August 10, 2020, 01:15:51 PM »

Quote from: Miniditka on August 10, 2020, 10:22:39 AM

The conversation that really needs to be had for things like reopening the economy and getting kids in schools, etc., is “How many lives is it worth?” Because that’s really the issue. Obviously some people are going to die, and that just has to be accepted. How many is acceptable though?

If you’re on the “open stuff up” side and you’re uncomfortable having that conversation, then maybe you should honestly reassess which side you should really be on.

Not.only who dies, but how many suffer long-term physically because of the COVID. That seems to escape the conversation by the OPEN UP NOW crowd.

Even if things open up full and wide, a large segment is not going to go all in. See it here and now even with the partial reopening that people do not want to sit inside to eat, etc. en masse.

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Custard

12316
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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?

« Reply #613 on: August 10, 2020, 01:36:20 PM »

55% of people with acute symptomatic cases have some lingering effects. That seems pretty normal to me for anything “acute.” Meanwhile 40-45% are completely asymptomatic and sure children might carry it but are rarely susceptible.

Based on the available evidence of the dangers of COVID versus the known disadvantages of remote learning, local teachers unanimously chose in-person learning for this fall and the board echoed that decision. An optional remote learning program is available for parents or children who are uncomfortable attending school in person.

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murphstahoe

8271
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Re: WTF is the deal with the caronavirus?

« Reply #614 on: August 10, 2020, 01:44:08 PM »

Quote from: Custard on August 10, 2020, 08:28:48 AM

I sure didn’t feel like mandatory shelter in place and masks/temp checks at essential businesses for 2+ months was a half-assed response.

Even though they often can, most people aren’t eating indoors at restaurants because outdoor seating has been made available. Workers are wearing masks and touchless QR code menus have been implemented most places. The air is thick with the smell of hand sanitizer and Lysol.

I believe we should continue forward being prudent with masks and sanitizing procedures and gathering size when out in public.

If you’re scared or are a caregiver/have frequent contact with at-risk people, then by all means exercise your right to shelter in place.

Given that many areas have been largely untouched by the ‘rona, I’m not convinced we need another blanket shut down. Most locales have developed data driven thresholds for shutting back down and will undoubtedly do so should those thresholds be met.

I also believe that shutting down again right as many businesses have invested heavily in reopening safely would be a killer blow to places that are already cash strapped and struggling to catch up from the first shutdown.

I wonder how this would have played out if there was a mandatory stay at home order for people over 60 and those with underlying health issue while everyone else carried on relatively normally. Was just looking at some data from Minnesota and 80% of cases are in people 60 and younger. Most of those are asymptomatic, almost all the rest are mild to moderate symptoms.

The bigger issue has been not at restaurants. When I ride around, I see 5 on 5 pickup games at the courts, with another set of 5 waiting for next, sitting next to each other on a bench. Backyard BBQ's clearly containing multiple families, make up proms. This before we talk about the crap show going on in places like the Ozarks, Tahoe, Vegas. Poker rooms - the players have plexiglass screens around them but they are passing chips back and forth to the entirety of the table.

The problem with your last paragraph is that the populations you describe can't stay at home in a vacuum - they are the most likely to need external care, as such would pretty much catch the virus eventually if the various caregivers are part of a "everyone just get it" experiment.

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