https://www.natesilver.net/p/will-iran-break-magaTo level-set, the war in Iran is not popular with Americans in general. Support for the strikes and approval of Trump’s approach to Iran are underwater in nearly every poll conducted since the start of the war, and the Iran War is less popular than other foreign conflicts were at their outset.4 To put some numbers to that, we averaged every Iran poll conducted since February 27. The war is opposed by 50 percent of Americans and supported by 40 percent.5
It’s a different story for Republicans, 77 percent of whom support the war, on average.
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In large part, it’s because the Republican voters you’d expect to be most opposed to the war (at least ideologically) are actually the most supportive. Some pollsters release crosstabs for Republicans who identify with the MAGA movement. How they identify those voters varies — YouGov, for example, asks “Are you a MAGA supporter?” — so comparing these groups across different polls isn’t exactly apples to apples.
But in this case, the results are highly consistent: Republicans who identify with the MAGA movement are much more supportive of the war than Republicans in general. For example, RMG Research found that a group they call “Trump-policy voters” favored the US attack on Iran by a margin of +75, compared to just +35 among “traditional GOP voters.” Similarly, net support for using military force to overthrow the government of Iran is +68 among MAGA Republicans compared to just +11 among non-MAGA, according to YouGov.
That’s the opposite of what you’d expect ideologically, but it partially comes down to ambiguity about how voters self-identify as MAGA. Does MAGA mean voters who are extra Trumpy in a literal sense of tending to support everything that Trump does? Or do voters see the term as a stand-in for populist, anti-establishment conservatism of the sort you might associate with Carlson or Greene?
In practice, it’s probably the former. Across the board, Republican voters who identify with the MAGA movement tend to be more supportive of everything Trump does.
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