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Da Economy

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Custard

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Re: Da Economy
« Reply #720 on: September 15, 2026, 09:44:07 PM »
Quote from: alum74 on September 15, 2026, 12:58:00 PM
Not just fuel, but higher fertilizer, machinery and labor costs, coupled with more debt and higher interest expenses.   

Let's see what the American Farm Bureau thinks: 

"One of the clearest measures of the changing farm economy is the relationship between the prices farmers receive for their products and the prices they pay for what they need to grow their crops. For crop farms, USDA’s prices paid for production inputs index stood at 110.8 in July 2018 and reached 153.4 in July 2026, an increase of more than 38%. Over the same period, the prices received for crop products index increased from 86.5 to 107.0, a gain of about 24%. This widening difference helps explain why higher commodity prices do not necessarily mean stronger margins. When input costs rise faster than the value of what farmers sell, break-even prices increase and producers have less room to absorb market declines or unexpected expenses. Productivity gains can offset some of these higher costs for growers able to increase yields, while producers facing lower yields experience even greater margin pressure."
https://www.fb.org/intel/markets/the-farm-economy-has-changed-since-2018


That’s all from June, well before the market rally.

I also clearly addressed the input prices that have been high since early in Biden’s term. They aren’t coming down any time soon. They’ll track right with rising commodity prices too.

China is buying beans, corn exports are up. Prices are up considerably year over year. That’s good.
« Last Edit: September 15, 2026, 09:56:44 PM by Custard »
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murphstahoe

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Re: Da Economy
« Reply #721 on: October 07, 2026, 09:58:57 AM »
Quote from: Custard on September 03, 2026, 11:19:33 PM
Yeah take me back to 2022 with the 4 decade high inflation and high interest rates and vaccine passports and private equity buying all the houses and rents skyrocketing and food prices spiraling higher and higher and Ukraine being invaded because Putin knew the entire west was being run by weak progressives

That was fun

I wish I could take you back to 2022 with those low interest rates.

The Ten and the Thirty are now the highest this century. The bond vigilantes have spoken
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murphstahoe

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Re: Da Economy
« Reply #722 on: October 07, 2026, 10:00:13 AM »
Quote from: murphstahoe on September 15, 2026, 11:05:58 AM
Farmers aren’t making bank from higher prices if they are paying 6/gallon for diesel

I was so naive. Try $8/gal
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illiniray

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Re: Da Economy
« Reply #723 on: October 07, 2026, 11:29:46 AM »
It's a small price to pay for keeping America safe..
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murphstahoe

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Re: Da Economy
« Reply #724 on: October 07, 2026, 11:50:54 AM »
Quote from: illiniray on October 07, 2026, 11:29:46 AM
It's a small price to pay for keeping America safe..

Especially since the Americans in Trump's circle aren't doing the paying, they're doing the collecting.
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No one in Mn

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Re: Da Economy
« Reply #725 on: October 07, 2026, 12:47:17 PM »
AI

Inflation-adjusted values (approximate, in recent 2026 dollars)Using the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U):The national peak of $5.81 (week of June 20, 2022) equates to roughly $6.55–$6.60 in August 2026 dollars (CPI rose from about 296 in June 2022 to ~335 in August 2026).

perc.tamu.edu

The California peak of $6.915 equates to roughly $7.80–$7.85 in the same recent dollars.

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murphstahoe

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Re: Da Economy
« Reply #726 on: October 07, 2026, 01:04:28 PM »
Quote from: No one in Mn on October 07, 2026, 12:47:17 PM
AI

Inflation-adjusted values (approximate, in recent 2026 dollars)Using the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U):The national peak of $5.81 (week of June 20, 2022) equates to roughly $6.55–$6.60 in August 2026 dollars (CPI rose from about 296 in June 2022 to ~335 in August 2026).

perc.tamu.edu

The California peak of $6.915 equates to roughly $7.80–$7.85 in the same recent dollars.

AI

Well shit, it's practically free! Tell them truckers to stop bitching!
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alum74

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Re: Da Economy
« Reply #727 on: October 07, 2026, 01:34:04 PM »
Quote from: No one in Mn on October 07, 2026, 12:47:17 PM
AI

Inflation-adjusted values (approximate, in recent 2026 dollars)Using the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U):The national peak of $5.81 (week of June 20, 2022) equates to roughly $6.55–$6.60 in August 2026 dollars (CPI rose from about 296 in June 2022 to ~335 in August 2026).

perc.tamu.edu

The California peak of $6.915 equates to roughly $7.80–$7.85 in the same recent dollars.

"Things aren't so bad."

That sounds like a winning message. I hope every Republican candidate shares it with their trucking and ag constituents. 

And wait until folks start seeing this season's heating oil bills.  Republicans are lucky that the election is in early November.
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murphstahoe

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Re: Da Economy
« Reply #728 on: October 07, 2026, 01:37:02 PM »
Quote from: alum74 on October 07, 2026, 01:34:04 PM
"Things aren't so bad."

That sounds like a winning message. I hope every Republican candidate shares it with their trucking and ag constituents. 

And wait until folks start seeing this season's heating oil bills.  Republicans are lucky that the election is in early November.

Trump = Biden is a match
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ThePAMan

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Re: Da Economy
« Reply #729 on: October 12, 2026, 05:59:11 PM »
Not that Tempo cares since he hates successful Americans....

Why America’s Real Wealth Isn’t in Silicon Valley
Yascha Mounk, Owen Zidar, and Eric Zwick examine how America's hidden fortunes are built on garage doors, car dealerships, and beverage distribution.

https://writing.yaschamounk.com/p/owen-zidar-eric-zwick?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=2709399&post_id=219422286&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1nfyj&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

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Owen Zidar: There are three million everywhere millionaires in the United States. Those are private business owners who have at least five million dollars in net worth. And if you add up their collective net worth, it’s thirteen times the total wealth of the richest four hundred people in the most recent year that we can measure, which is 2022.

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Zwick: In the wealth data, when you think about how many people have more than five million in net worth—from the Survey of Consumer Finances we can get a good estimate of that—there are about five million households with that figure. Of that group, three million are private business owners, so the majority are. If you move further up the threshold, from five million to twenty-five million, then you see those working professionals who have accumulated substantial savings but maybe don’t own a stake in a company—they disappear. So private business ownership becomes more and more important the further up you go. At the $25 million, the $50 million, the $100 million threshold, you get to a point where pretty much they’re all private business owners.

There is a class of private business owner that we call a skilled service business owner, which your law firm partner would fall into. That’s an important element of the story of the rise of these everywhere millionaires—the skilled services companies where they own a stake in the upside. If it’s a boutique law firm, maybe there’s something more entrepreneurial about that than being a partner at Kirkland & Ellis. So we could have a nuanced conversation about how to interpret the behavior of those people. It’s relevant for some of the other arguments we make in the book about whether it’s labor versus financial capital that’s driving the rise of income inequality, but it is important to distinguish them for some of the conversation.

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Zidar: That’s a great question. In terms of inheritance, we estimate about a quarter of people in this group inherited their business. So the typical person either founded it or acquired it. And it’s a broad swath of people. The example you gave of a plumber working for ten years and then running a plumbing company is much more common. There are a lot of mundane businesses—ranging from a guy who started as a repo man repossessing cars to running one of the largest repossession companies in the country. There are some pretty large industries, like auto dealers, beverage distribution, realtors, contractors. There’s a guy who sold his business for two billion dollars in Phoenix for servicing garage doors. So it can be pretty mundane. Not all of them went to college, and especially not to advanced degrees. I think the typical one did go to college, has a college degree, but it’s often not a fancy school, because that’s just a smaller number of people. And most of them do not have advanced MBAs or other things, but the skilled services—the lawyers and that group—that subset do have advanced degrees.

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Zidar: There are different categories of how they did it. We have the set of people who started businesses, and the set of people who inherited. And it’s easier to track the people who founded a business. We have, underlying the book, the best data that anyone’s put together on entrepreneurship in America in the twenty-first century, where we have ten million entrepreneurs and can link many of them to where they came from to answer your question. The typical one did not come from a rich family—they’re often poor and middle class. Now, that’s not to say that richer kids don’t have many advantages for starting businesses—they start successful businesses at a much higher rate. But the key point is that there are so many more middle class and poor kids that even though rich kids have an advantage, once you have a large population of people, you get more numerous outcomes, even though their rate of starting one is lower than a rich kid’s.

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Zidar: I agree with you. One of the fun things about the book is that we could talk to some of these people and we include their stories. One is Dick Portillo, who grew up in the housing projects in Chicago and ended up not going to college and selling a hot dog business for a billion dollars. And then there’s another one named Saad Khan who, almost exactly like the situation you described, is an immigrant—was washing dishes, had five hundred dollars in his pocket when he came to the country to go to UIUC, ended up working at a car bumper company and becoming an owner of such a company. Toyota was an early client, and that really helped his business, and he ended up buying the Jacksonville Jaguars.

There is even a discussion about private equity buying Outback Steakhouse and fucking it up....
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murphstahoe

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Re: Da Economy
« Reply #730 on: October 12, 2026, 07:43:16 PM »
Quote from: ThePAMan on October 12, 2026, 05:59:11 PM
There is even a discussion about private equity buying Outback Steakhouse and fucking it up....

Maybe that's a feature. The guy who starts the small business, sells it for big bucks to PE, PE runs it into the ground opening the door for another small guy to start a business. Causes a lot of headaches for the staff though. Not that the Jimmy Johns or Mike Lindells or Papa Johns of the world really give a shit about that part.

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Reacher

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Re: Da Economy
« Reply #731 on: October 12, 2026, 11:02:11 PM »
I HATE successful Americans!
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ThePAMan

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Re: Da Economy
« Reply #732 on: October 13, 2026, 01:12:28 PM »
Quote from: Reacher on October 12, 2026, 11:02:11 PM
I HATE successful Americans!

At least this is a truthful post!
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Reacher

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Re: Da Economy
« Reply #733 on: October 13, 2026, 03:00:47 PM »
Quote from: ThePAMan on October 13, 2026, 01:12:28 PM
At least this is a truthful post!

HATE them!
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murphstahoe

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Re: Da Economy
« Reply #734 on: Today at 08:20:22 AM »
Everything is fine! At least Custard will get his lower interest rates when the recession gets flying.

"When you are building a new type of technology company, there will be periods of time when the market misunderstands and acts irrationally," CoreWeave CEO Michael Intrator wrote in an internal memo to staff, adding that he was confident in the company's business model.

The bottom line: Markets overshoot all the time, but the episode does seem to have rattled investors about the AI boom.

 • Indeed, yesterday morning's sharp rise in long-end Treasury yields reversed by the end of the day, in what seemed to be a flight-to-safety trade brought on by the AI jitters.
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