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The “Debate” 6/27/2024

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Somewhere in Mn

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Re: The “Debate” 6/27/2024
« Reply #240 on: July 02, 2024, 04:36:53 PM »
Voter turnout concerns ?

They've got poll pads, USB drives and millions of newly arrived, illegal faces from all around the world.
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illiniray

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Re: The “Debate” 6/27/2024
« Reply #241 on: July 02, 2024, 04:41:57 PM »
Illegal faces? Sounds fascinating. Do those have a certain look or complexion that distinguishes them from legal faces?
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Somewhere in Mn

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Re: The “Debate” 6/27/2024
« Reply #242 on: July 02, 2024, 05:07:42 PM »
Quote from: illiniray on July 02, 2024, 04:41:57 PM
Illegal faces? Sounds fascinating. Do those have a certain look or complexion that distinguishes them from legal faces?
Nope.
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murphstahoe

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Re: The “Debate” 6/27/2024
« Reply #243 on: July 02, 2024, 06:38:23 PM »
Quote from: Custard on July 02, 2024, 03:45:28 PM
I also know several gay Christian conservatives.

What's amusing is that you know they are gay but their wives don't.

until they get caught with a male hooker anyway
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murphstahoe

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Re: The “Debate” 6/27/2024
« Reply #244 on: July 02, 2024, 06:39:41 PM »
Quote from: illiniray on July 02, 2024, 04:06:04 PM
I think the last candidate derailed by an affair might have been Gary Hart?

Depends on if you think John Edwards was not on the rails in the first place.
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FaninCa

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Re: The “Debate” 6/27/2024
« Reply #245 on: July 02, 2024, 07:45:53 PM »
Quote from: Custard on July 01, 2024, 12:19:29 PM
They 100% should. I’m part of the class of people they used to identify as a core constituency, but have lost sight of in all the pandering to special interest groups.

It’s always the economy!

Enjoy losing to one of the worst candidates of all time…again.

What are the economic policies that will get your vote?
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FaninCa

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Re: The “Debate” 6/27/2024
« Reply #246 on: July 02, 2024, 07:54:58 PM »
I'll be absolutely shocked if the Dems replace Biden with a white male like Newsom.

If there is some grand scheme to replacement Biden, Michelle Obama, will be the replacement. 

Among the names of top Democrats put before respondents, only Michelle Obama, wife of former Democratic President Barack Obama, outperformed Biden and led Trump 50% to 39% in a hypothetical matchup. Michelle Obama, author of the best-selling 2018 memoir "Becoming," has said repeatedly she does not intend to run for president.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/one-three-democrats-think-biden-should-quit-race-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2024-07-02/
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FaninCa

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Re: The “Debate” 6/27/2024
« Reply #247 on: July 02, 2024, 08:09:36 PM »
Quote from: ThePAMan on July 02, 2024, 12:09:45 PM
Harris isn't winning. Ever.

Biden's corpse is a better option.
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ThePAMan

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Re: The “Debate” 6/27/2024
« Reply #248 on: July 02, 2024, 09:07:51 PM »
Quote from: illiniray on July 02, 2024, 04:06:04 PM
I think the last candidate derailed by an affair might have been Gary Hart?

John Edwards said "Hold my beer."
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alum74

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Re: The “Debate” 6/27/2024
« Reply #249 on: July 02, 2024, 09:42:38 PM »
Quote from: FaninCa on July 02, 2024, 07:54:58 PM
I'll be absolutely shocked if the Dems replace Biden with a white male like Newsom.

If there is some grand scheme to replacement Biden, Michelle Obama, will be the replacement. 

Among the names of top Democrats put before respondents, only Michelle Obama, wife of former Democratic President Barack Obama, outperformed Biden and led Trump 50% to 39% in a hypothetical matchup. Michelle Obama, author of the best-selling 2018 memoir "Becoming," has said repeatedly she does not intend to run for president.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/one-three-democrats-think-biden-should-quit-race-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2024-07-02/

Hard to argue with this. Just look at the makeup of the convention delegates; lots and lots of women and African Americans.  And how would they respond to Newsom.  "Oh look, they want to replace a white man with another white man."  That's not going to pass muster.  Sorry Murph, but I think Newsom knows he's toast for 2024. 

Michelle would no doubt be a great candidate, but I agree that she probably doesn't want the job.  On the other hand, opening up the convention to a bunch of dueling candidates very much risks opening fissures within the Democratic coalition, and those sorts of fissures cannot possibly by healed within 2.5 months no matter how short people's memories are.  Keep in mind the pundits and media would love to tell people how unorganized and divided Democrats are.  Even worse, Custard would be concern trolling throughout the process. 

The other big elephant in the room is Joe Biden.  Whatever his flaws as a candidate, Biden has been a good political manager of the disparate Democratic coalition. That, more than anything else, was what kept a high-profile primary candidate from challenging him.

Here's how I think things will play out. I hope Biden will be persuaded by party leaders to bow out.  If and when that happens, I believe he will endorse Harris as his successor as a way of strongly signaling that she is the inheritor of his coalition.  The torch will be passed to her before the convention takes place.  Then everyone will fall in line, and the auditions for VP would begin.

I understand that some folks here will not like this scenario.  That's fine.  However, I don't believe Biden will abandon Harris, if he decides to withdraw.  That's not his style. 
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murphstahoe

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Re: The “Debate” 6/27/2024
« Reply #250 on: July 02, 2024, 10:10:29 PM »
Quote from: FaninCa on July 02, 2024, 07:54:58 PM
I'll be absolutely shocked if the Dems replace Biden with a white male like Newsom.

If there is some grand scheme to replacement Biden, Michelle Obama, will be the replacement. 

Among the names of top Democrats put before respondents, only Michelle Obama, wife of former Democratic President Barack Obama, outperformed Biden and led Trump 50% to 39% in a hypothetical matchup. Michelle Obama, author of the best-selling 2018 memoir "Becoming," has said repeatedly she does not intend to run for president.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/one-three-democrats-think-biden-should-quit-race-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2024-07-02/

You know what they say about hypotheticals.

A much younger Hillary Clinton lost to Trump. Biden looked like shit 4 years ago and beat Trump. If you gotta win, you gotta go with a good candidate. Whitmer is the only non-white-male available. And I don't think she can overrun Trump.

This is gonna happen. Julian Castro goes on TV to say Biden should drop out and Harris should be in. The minions are all starting to pick their horses so they get a patronage job if it happens. This will accellerate.
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murphstahoe

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Re: The “Debate” 6/27/2024
« Reply #251 on: July 02, 2024, 10:13:11 PM »
Quote from: alum74 on July 02, 2024, 09:42:38 PM
Hard to argue with this. Just look at the makeup of the convention delegates; lots and lots of women and African Americans.  And how would they respond to Newsom.  "Oh look, they want to replace a white man with another white man."  That's not going to pass muster.  Sorry Murph, but I think Newsom knows he's toast for 2024. 

Michelle would no doubt be a great candidate, but I agree that she probably doesn't want the job.  On the other hand, opening up the convention to a bunch of dueling candidates very much risks opening fissures within the Democratic coalition, and those sorts of fissures cannot possibly by healed within 2.5 months no matter how short people's memories are.  Keep in mind the pundits and media would love to tell people how unorganized and divided Democrats are.  Even worse, Custard would be concern trolling throughout the process. 

The other big elephant in the room is Joe Biden.  Whatever his flaws as a candidate, Biden has been a good political manager of the disparate Democratic coalition. That, more than anything else, was what kept a high-profile primary candidate from challenging him.

Here's how I think things will play out. I hope Biden will be persuaded by party leaders to bow out.  If and when that happens, I believe he will endorse Harris as his successor as a way of strongly signaling that she is the inheritor of his coalition.  The torch will be passed to her before the convention takes place.  Then everyone will fall in line, and the auditions for VP would begin.

I understand that some folks here will not like this scenario.  That's fine.  However, I don't believe Biden will abandon Harris, if he decides to withdraw.  That's not his style.

How can we get some money on this?

They learned their lesson with Hillary. Harris is a less personable, mixed race Hillary.

If a white male doesn't get the African American women vote, they would lose.
Harris would get zero of the swing vote, and will definitely lose.

The first option has an infinitely higher probability of success.
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FaninCa

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Re: The “Debate” 6/27/2024
« Reply #252 on: July 02, 2024, 10:33:04 PM »
Quote from: murphstahoe on July 02, 2024, 10:10:29 PM
You know what they say about hypotheticals.

A much younger Hillary Clinton lost to Trump. Biden looked like shit 4 years ago and beat Trump. If you gotta win, you gotta go with a good candidate. Whitmer is the only non-white-male available. And I don't think she can overrun Trump.

This is gonna happen. Julian Castro goes on TV to say Biden should drop out and Harris should be in. The minions are all starting to pick their horses so they get a patronage job if it happens. This will accellerate.

Hillary was vetted for years and being Secretary of State did not help her in the 2016 General Election.   

Michelle Obama may be a weak candidate, but the right may have under 100 days to vet her...
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FaninCa

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Re: The “Debate” 6/27/2024
« Reply #253 on: July 02, 2024, 10:35:16 PM »
Quote from: alum74 on July 02, 2024, 09:42:38 PM
Hard to argue with this. Just look at the makeup of the convention delegates; lots and lots of women and African Americans.  And how would they respond to Newsom.  "Oh look, they want to replace a white man with another white man."  That's not going to pass muster.  Sorry Murph, but I think Newsom knows he's toast for 2024. 

Michelle would no doubt be a great candidate, but I agree that she probably doesn't want the job.  On the other hand, opening up the convention to a bunch of dueling candidates very much risks opening fissures within the Democratic coalition, and those sorts of fissures cannot possibly by healed within 2.5 months no matter how short people's memories are.  Keep in mind the pundits and media would love to tell people how unorganized and divided Democrats are.  Even worse, Custard would be concern trolling throughout the process. 

The other big elephant in the room is Joe Biden.  Whatever his flaws as a candidate, Biden has been a good political manager of the disparate Democratic coalition. That, more than anything else, was what kept a high-profile primary candidate from challenging him.

Here's how I think things will play out. I hope Biden will be persuaded by party leaders to bow out.  If and when that happens, I believe he will endorse Harris as his successor as a way of strongly signaling that she is the inheritor of his coalition.  The torch will be passed to her before the convention takes place.  Then everyone will fall in line, and the auditions for VP would begin.

I understand that some folks here will not like this scenario.  That's fine.  However, I don't believe Biden will abandon Harris, if he decides to withdraw.  That's not his style.

Trump in a landslide if Harris is the nominee.   She's viewed as insufferable and isn't going to change her low favorability rating in such a short time. 
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illiniray

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Re: The “Debate” 6/27/2024
« Reply #254 on: July 03, 2024, 09:02:23 AM »
I would still vote for the guy with progressive aphasia over the narcissistic fascist or the antivaxxer.
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