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THE JFC Thread!

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Custard

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Re: THE JFC Thread!
« Reply #3300 on: December 30, 2023, 01:37:08 AM »
No one is working, kids aren’t in school, and it’s football.
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Reacher

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Re: THE JFC Thread!
« Reply #3301 on: December 30, 2023, 06:00:06 AM »
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"He commented more than once that, 'You know, Hitler did some good things, too,'" Kelly recalled to The Times. Kelly said he would usually quash the conversation by saying "nothing (Hitler) did, you could argue, was good," but that Trump would occasionally bring up the topic again.
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spark mandrill

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Re: THE JFC Thread!
« Reply #3302 on: December 30, 2023, 08:17:30 AM »
Quote from: Tempo34 on December 30, 2023, 12:51:59 AM
If I am Ryan Poles, I am eyeing Washington with that number three pick and I am going to pickpocket them for Terry McLaurin and then if Marvin Harrison Junior is not there at three, I can trade down two or three more spots for a team hungry for that second quarterback And still end up with a Malik Nabers or a Brock Bowers.

Sure you can gamble on Caleb Williams being that 25% that works out at the top of the draft or you can stockpile and talent and that draft pick can potentially do for you what the Herschel Walker trade did for Dallas

Stockpiling a bunch of talent that’s dependent on good QB play without a QB isn’t the foolproof plan you’re selling here.

I’m curious what the hit rate is on top-10 WRs.  Surely there have been enough busts there lately that you should be posting those lists all the time as evidence of how risky Nabers or MHJ is to pick, right?
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Reacher

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Re: THE JFC Thread!
« Reply #3303 on: December 30, 2023, 12:25:43 PM »
Quote from: spark mandrill on December 30, 2023, 08:17:30 AM
Stockpiling a bunch of talent that’s dependent on good QB play without a QB isn’t the foolproof plan you’re selling here.

I’m curious what the hit rate is on top-10 WRs.  Surely there have been enough busts there lately that you should be posting those lists all the time as evidence of how risky Nabers or MHJ is to pick, right?

We get it. You really dislike Justin Fields. If he doesn’t improve, you can find a quarterback elsewhere, which is exactly what Philly, SF, KC, and Baltimore did. Mahomes was drafted by far the highest at 10. Drafting a guy #1 doesn’t guarantee you shit. Over the last 50 years #1 overall quarterbacks were meh or worse a good 65% of the time.
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"He commented more than once that, 'You know, Hitler did some good things, too,'" Kelly recalled to The Times. Kelly said he would usually quash the conversation by saying "nothing (Hitler) did, you could argue, was good," but that Trump would occasionally bring up the topic again.
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Reacher

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Re: THE JFC Thread!
« Reply #3304 on: December 30, 2023, 12:26:47 PM »
Seems like WRs have been busting less lately. These kids coming out are so polished nowadays. MHJ will not bust unless he is injured or effs up off the field.
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"He commented more than once that, 'You know, Hitler did some good things, too,'" Kelly recalled to The Times. Kelly said he would usually quash the conversation by saying "nothing (Hitler) did, you could argue, was good," but that Trump would occasionally bring up the topic again.
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Reacher

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Re: THE JFC Thread!
« Reply #3305 on: December 30, 2023, 12:31:15 PM »
The year Fields came out you had Chase, Waddle, and DeVonta Smith in the top 10. All great players.
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"He commented more than once that, 'You know, Hitler did some good things, too,'" Kelly recalled to The Times. Kelly said he would usually quash the conversation by saying "nothing (Hitler) did, you could argue, was good," but that Trump would occasionally bring up the topic again.
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ThePAMan

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Re: THE JFC Thread!
« Reply #3306 on: December 30, 2023, 12:32:21 PM »
You are probably right on the WR bust rates viz a viz the QB bust rates. Does not mean you don't try to hit on a QB though.
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Reacher

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Re: THE JFC Thread!
« Reply #3307 on: December 30, 2023, 12:37:14 PM »
The Eagles outdueled Tom Brady in the SB with Nick Foles. Build the roster.
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"He commented more than once that, 'You know, Hitler did some good things, too,'" Kelly recalled to The Times. Kelly said he would usually quash the conversation by saying "nothing (Hitler) did, you could argue, was good," but that Trump would occasionally bring up the topic again.
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Reacher

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Re: THE JFC Thread!
« Reply #3308 on: December 30, 2023, 12:38:30 PM »
Quote from: ThePAMan on December 30, 2023, 12:32:21 PM
You are probably right on the WR bust rates viz a viz the QB bust rates. Does not mean you don't try to hit on a QB though.

But you don’t have to do it with the #1 overall pick. There’s at least a 50% chance one of these other quarterbacks in the 1st round or 2 is as good or better than Williams as a pro.
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"He commented more than once that, 'You know, Hitler did some good things, too,'" Kelly recalled to The Times. Kelly said he would usually quash the conversation by saying "nothing (Hitler) did, you could argue, was good," but that Trump would occasionally bring up the topic again.
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spark mandrill

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Re: THE JFC Thread!
« Reply #3309 on: December 30, 2023, 12:52:27 PM »
Quote from: Tempo34 on December 30, 2023, 12:26:47 PM
Seems like WRs have been busting less lately. These kids coming out are so polished nowadays. MHJ will not bust unless he is injured or effs up off the field.

top-10 picks at WR since 2000

Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, De’Vonta Smith, Corey Davis, Mike Williams, John Ross, Amari Cooper, Kevin White, Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Tavon Austin, Justin Blackmon, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Derrius Heyward-Bey, Michael Crabtree, Calvin Johnson, Ted Ginn Jr., Braylon Edwards, Troy Williamson, the other Mike Williams, Larry Fitzgerald, Roy Williams, Reggie Williams, Charles Rogers, Andre Johnson, David Terrell, Koren Robinson, Peter Warrick, Plaxico Burress.

Pretty similar to the QB list.  A few HOFers, a few huge busts, a bunch of “just a guy” types. Often the best WR wasn’t the first WR taken in a given draft.

No one here, including you, knows if MHJ will be a bust.  More likely if he ends up on a team with a QB who isn’t a very good passer obviously.
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spark mandrill

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Re: THE JFC Thread!
« Reply #3310 on: December 30, 2023, 12:58:00 PM »
Of the current top-5 in receptions and receiving yards, one was a first round pick (not top-10 pick).

The guy I think is the best in the league was a fifth round pick.  It’s probably the deepest position in the NFL, and most likely to find a top guy later in the draft
« Last Edit: December 30, 2023, 12:59:47 PM by spark mandrill »
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Reacher

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Re: THE JFC Thread!
« Reply #3311 on: December 30, 2023, 12:58:57 PM »
WRs in the last 6-8 years IMO are coming into the NFL the most ready to play players. Sure, there a few busts, but the hit rate is higher than at QB. MHJ is as sure a thing as there is, and Nabers has unbelievable talent. Plus, I’d rather bust at 6 with a bunch of high draft picks in my pocket than bust at 1 with nothing left.
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"He commented more than once that, 'You know, Hitler did some good things, too,'" Kelly recalled to The Times. Kelly said he would usually quash the conversation by saying "nothing (Hitler) did, you could argue, was good," but that Trump would occasionally bring up the topic again.
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spark mandrill

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Re: THE JFC Thread!
« Reply #3312 on: December 30, 2023, 01:02:49 PM »
The last 8 years of that list go through John Ross.  Not … super good.  Not terrible, Chase is an obvious stud and Waddle/Devonta are solid number 2’s for their teams.  But far from some murderer’s row of WR.
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Reacher

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Re: THE JFC Thread!
« Reply #3313 on: December 30, 2023, 01:12:09 PM »
I count about 10 HOFers on your list. And they didn’t have to be taken #1 overall. In fact, none of them were.
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"He commented more than once that, 'You know, Hitler did some good things, too,'" Kelly recalled to The Times. Kelly said he would usually quash the conversation by saying "nothing (Hitler) did, you could argue, was good," but that Trump would occasionally bring up the topic again.
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Reacher

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Re: THE JFC Thread!
« Reply #3314 on: December 30, 2023, 01:15:18 PM »
I will say though, that your ability to compile lists and stats quickly is impressive.
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"He commented more than once that, 'You know, Hitler did some good things, too,'" Kelly recalled to The Times. Kelly said he would usually quash the conversation by saying "nothing (Hitler) did, you could argue, was good," but that Trump would occasionally bring up the topic again.
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